Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will work its way from north to south across the
state through the period. Ahead of it will be a line of
thunderstorms expected to impact north and central AR terminals
between 01z-06z. Winds will be highly variable in nature with
gusts potentially above 40 kts with thunderstorms. Activity will
end across the north by 12z with activity persisting across
central and southern AR terminals through the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary from north
central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and Nebraska. Ahead of that,
temps are in the 80s and 90s, with 70+ dewpoints. Scattered
showers/isolated storms continue to develop over much of the
central third of Arkansas at this hour as daytime heating, high
humidity and outflow from morning convection all interact.

As an upper trough digs down into the mid Mississippi Valley and
forms a closed low, the surface front should shift southeastward
this afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the front. The initial mode will be
cells ahead of the main line, then a squall line forming as the
front surges southward into Arkansas.

Some severe storms are possible this evening and into the early
morning hours Sunday, with the primary focus being the northwest
half of the state. Winds will be the primary threat with any
severe storms. To a lesser extent, hail will be a concern as well.
There could also be a brief tornado or two within the line of
storms.

Showers/storms will be over central Arkansas around 10-13Z, with
overall intensity and coverage diminishing. The front itself will
lag a bit, slowing down significantly as it traverses the Ozarks.
Additional development is likely during the day and into the
afternoon hours as the upper system catches up to the surface
front. Through the evening and overnight hours Sunday, the primary
focus for storms will be over the southeast half of Arkansas.
There will be a risk of strong storms, though not as elevated as
tonight.

Through Sunday Night, heavy rain will be a concern (along with the
aforementioned severe chances). High precipitable water and
abundant low level moisture will allow stronger storms to be
efficient rainfall producers. Localized flash flooding will be a
concern, particularly over the west and north.

By late Monday, what's left of the front will wash out.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
To begin the period, an upper level low is expected to be positioned
to our northeast near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This
along with a shortwave moving in from the west, will keep PoPs
increased through the first part of the period. Highest PoPs are
expected to be in the afternoon hours through Wednesday night
associated with daytime heating.

By Thursday, high pressure to our east continues southerly flow into
the CWA. PoPs are currently kept low during this time due to
uncertainties between global models. Isolated showers look to remain
possible once again during the afternoon hours. Eventually, the
upper level low that pushes through the Great Plains moves eastward,
towards the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through by late in the
period.

Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average.
High temperatures look to climb up into the high 80s to low 90s with
heat index values slightly higher. Low temperatures are expected to
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
808 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
808 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of strong and severe storms are forecast to develop and
move across the state during the evening and overnight hours.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, although large hail and
an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy downpours will
also result in the potential for localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Thunderstorms will linger for the southeast half of the area for
Sunday...some of which may become strong to briefly severe. Damaging
winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest
storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible...which  may
lead to an isolated flash flood threat through Sunday night.

By Monday into Tuesday...chances for thunderstorms will become less
likely...with just some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
expected. By the middle of the week...the overall threat for
hazardous weather will become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight into early Sunday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

70

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