Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread rain and occasional thunderstorms are expected to
impact most terminals through about 12/00z before precip begins to
taper off from west to east. Ceilings will be reduced along with
vsby, some improvement is expected between 12-18z Tuesday. Winds
through the period will largely be out of the E/NE, with speeds
above 10 kts at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 634 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021)
UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

TSRA will expand across the area today and affect all sites,
although confidence is highest at central/southern terminals in
the 11/18Z-12/02Z time frame. Activity will diminish after around
12/00Z, but cigs will lower through the evening with MVFR to IFR
restrictions expected overnight. Winds remain E to NE and will
increase late in the period with speeds up to 15 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 417 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

The most persistent convective activity this morning has been
confined to far southern AR and adjacent areas in LA/TX/OK/MS,
coincident with a pool of enhanced low-level moisture and warm air
advection. Mosaic radar does show additional isolated showers
over much of the rest of AR, generally along and south of a 850 mb
front analyzed from near FSM eastward to near MEM. Will see this
trend continue through the morning with the highest coverage of
rain initially over the south/west and more isolated activity
elsewhere.

As a large-scale mid/upper trough moves into the Plains today and
another low-amplitude wave moves across TX, broad forcing for
ascent will increase and the low-level mass field response will
advect rich moisture over the area. Rain and thunder coverage will
increase as a result with most of the area seeing rain today.
Modest instability (MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg) will be
most favored across southern AR and perhaps into central sections,
so kept highest thunder probabilities over those locations. We
still have moderately steep lapse rates in place aloft, so
wouldn't be surprised to see hail again in storms today, although
the overall severe threat is low.

Temperature-wise... abundant cloud cover and rainfall will limit
high temperatures today and did undercut initialized guidance,
especially over western AR. Readings will range from the mid/upper
50s over the western half of the state with low 60s elsewhere.
Lows tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s again (no
complaints... we will be hurting for this once summer really kicks
in...).

The heaviest rain and overall highest QPF is anticipated along
and south of the aforementioned 850 mb front, which is progged to
wobble over northern/central AR through the period. While we are
not anticipating the magnitude of rain that folks south of us will
see over the next few days, central AR could pick up on the order
of 0.5 to 1 inch, give or take, with 1 to 2 inches or more over
southern AR. Isolated higher totals are be possible with these
more driven by heavy convective rain in an environment
characterized by PWAT values of 1.5+ inches. Isolated flash
flooding will be possible with the highest relative threat over
southern sections.

Tonight through Wednesday night, the Plains trough will continue
pushing east with deep tropospheric moisture gradually waning.
Increasing static stability and subtle subsidence in the wake of a
passing mid- level wave tonight should knock back precipitation
coverage with rain and thunder lingering over southern AR. By
Wednesday and Wednesday night, rain should be south of the state.
While temperatures will moderate some by Wednesday afternoon,
values will remain below average.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday Night

A large area of high pressure will build over the region from the
north Thursday and Friday. Under the high, it will be dry with
below average temperatures.

By the weekend, the high will slide to the east, and return
flow will bring progressively warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture. As this happens, a storm system over the Rockies
will slowly head toward the Plains, with an even larger system to
follow from the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the systems, strong
riding will occur from the Great Lakes to Florida. This will
slow the systems down.

As the systems slowly approach, have isolated scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitation will be mostly confined to northern/western sections
of the state. Chances of rain will go up in much of the state
on Monday.

Given the pattern, this looks like mainly a heavy rain event
without much in the way of severe weather. Much of the event
will unfold after the end of the period, and will know more
what will happen as additional data is received.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
424 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
424 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day and, while
some hail is possible in storms, widespread severe weather is not
expected. Rain may be heavy at times and localized flooding will
also be possible, especially over southern Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1249 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ARZ030-037-038-111815-
Scott AR-Logan AR-Yell AR-
1249 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN...EAST CENTRAL
SCOTT AND WEST CENTRAL YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gravelly, or 17 miles east of Waldron, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stonehouse Recreation Area...     Gravelly...
Fourche Valley...                 Union Hill...
Wing...                           Nola...
Harvey...                         Waltreak...
Bluffton...                       Briggsville...
Blue Ball...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9371 3494 9344 3474 9378 3482 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 221DEG 22KT 3483 9380

67

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