Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
347 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Current surface data shows a stalled frontal boundary from
southwest Arkansas to the Delta Region. On queue, a midlevel wave
moving through and interacting with the front touched off
scattered to numerous showers/storms. These will continue to move
into the area through the morning as low pressure develops along
the front and propagates eastward. With decent mid-level lapse
rates present, a few elevated marginally strong storms could occur
north of the front.

Precip will diminish during the afternoon as the surface and mid-
level wave move eastward. However, with the longwave pattern
remaining zonal/quasi-zonal, the front itself should move very
little. Additional precip will develop and move into the area
again late tonight, as another wave moves through and interacts
with the boundary.

Precip will move east during the day Thursday. The longwave
pattern will amplify a bit, as a closed upper low moves into the
central Rockies. This will push the front a bit southward into the
long term.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
A mid/upper level trough will cross the central Plains Friday and
Saturday, bringing rainfall to much of the area early in the
period. With the primary frontal boundary near the Gulf Coast and
only marginal instability expected across the southwestern half of
the state, thunder chances appear low and severe chances are
virtually nil.

Another compact mid/upper level cyclone will dive southeastward
across the central Plains on Sunday as the first system departs. Do
expect rain to end across the area by Saturday morning before dawn.
Dry high pressure building in from the northwest will keep the
forecast dry for the first half of the work week before another
front approaches from the north Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture
looks meager ahead of this front so overall rain chances are low.

Temperatures will remain below average through the period, although
a notable moderating trend will be seen each day. Patchy frost
cannot be ruled out across the Ozarks and Ouachitas during the
morning hours, especially late weekend into next week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  44  65  45 /  70  10   0  20
Camden AR         64  49  70  49 /  70  30   0  40
Harrison AR       61  41  62  44 /  60  10   0  40
Hot Springs AR    62  48  68  48 /  60  20   0  40
Little Rock   AR  61  47  66  47 /  70  20   0  30
Monticello AR     62  49  67  49 /  70  30   0  30
Mount Ida AR      62  47  68  47 /  50  20   0  50
Mountain Home AR  63  42  63  44 /  60  10   0  30
Newport AR        60  46  63  47 /  70  10   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     61  49  66  49 /  70  20   0  30
Russellville AR   63  47  67  48 /  60  10   0  40
Searcy AR         61  46  65  46 /  70  10   0  30
Stuttgart AR      61  50  65  49 /  70  20   0  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...Smith / Long Term...Cooper

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
218 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

ARZ040-140800-
Polk AR-
218 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wickes, or 18 miles north of De Queen, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Vandervoort...                    Cossatot River State Park...
Shady...                          Hartley...
Shady Lake Recreation Area...     Hatton...
Bogg Springs...

LAT...LON 3436 9446 3445 9412 3435 9401 3436 9425
      3428 9426 3427 9425 3424 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 251DEG 35KT 3430 9442

DTC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

ARZ040-041-140830-
Polk AR-Montgomery AR-
242 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL POLK AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cossatot River State Park, or 11 miles northwest of Umpire, moving
east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bard Springs Recreation Area...   Shady...
Caney Creek Wilderness...         Albert Pike Recreation Area...
Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Big Fork...
Shady Lake Recreation Area...     Roaring Branch Natural Area...

LAT...LON 3451 9387 3435 9377 3435 9402 3445 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 250DEG 31KT 3435 9423

DTC

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