Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

April 9, 2021Pike County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this special weather statement at Apr 9, 2021, 11:49 PM CDT for Pike County, Arkansas. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 9, 2021, 11:49 PM CDT (04:49 UTC)
Expired: Apr 10, 2021, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR

County Pike County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 148 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -321 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2441 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 329 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 421 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 9, 8:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 8:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
830 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.Mesoscale Forecast Update...

As of 01Z, per SPC mesoscale analysis page, we have an area of
very strong 0-3 km helicity oriented over central and southwest
Arkansas. Typically we look at low-level helicity to inform a
potential for a tornado or supercell threat, but in this case
it's more useful as a tool to gauge low-level warm air advection.

The 500 to 650 m2/s2 of helicity over this portion of the state
is an indication of the low-level atmosphere attempting to
"recover" from cool air brought down to the surface from
convection earlier this afternoon. A low-level jet is expected to
enhance the low-level recovery of heat and moisture, but there
likely won't be enough time for this advection to allow for storms
to become truly surface based before moving back into Arkansas
late this evening into the overnight hours.

Steep mid-level lapse rates are advecting over southwest Arkansas
with 700 to 500 mb temperature difference of around 20 deg C.
With strong low-level warm and humid air advection below an area
of steep mid-level lapse rates, a linear MCS developing across
Oklahoma should be well-maintained as it moves towards Arkansas.

Assuming the MCS remains slightly elevated above a low-level
inversion, the potential for spin-up tornadoes along the linear
MCS or QLCS may be minimized. However the threat for damaging
winds remains high as the steep mid-level lapse rates represent a
strong theta-e difference with height which will support strong
negative buoyancy and momentum transfer of strong winds aloft down
to the surface. The low-level inversion will provide some
resistance for winds reaching the surface, but the strong negative
buoyancy and dynamic structure of the linear MCS is expected to
be sufficient to push through the low-level inversion supporting a
continued threat for damaging winds along the entire swath of the
line of storms.

Continue to think that the area of enhanced risk as outlined by
the SPC represents the most likely threat area for strong damaging
wind late this evening and overnight. This includes an area from
west central andn southwest Arkansas, across central and south
central Arkansas and then towards southeast Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 644 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021)
UPDATE...

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

VFR conds have returned to all terminals in the wake of system
number 1. Additional SHRA/TSRA will develop and move into AR this
evening/overnight with gusty winds and large hail the main
threats. VFR conds should become low end MVFR during convection
but should return to VFR after the passage of the cold front. The
exception will be over Nrn terminals where low stratus VFR/MVFR
will prevail through the TAF period, even behind the front. Winds
will be gusty on Sat with speeds upwards of 25 knots at most
locations. Skies will clear from SW to NE late in the period.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 443 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Main forecast focus is defining the severe storm threat/potential
in the near term.

A complex mesoscale situation has developed across the LZK
forecast area. Some stabilization due to convective overturning
has occurred across all but southeast sections of the forecast
area, where a near term severe wind threat exists.

Attention will turn to developing convection across Oklahoma,
which latest CAM guidance continues to indicate this activity
will develop upscale, eventually becoming an linear MCS, while
accelerating to the east-southeast. The latest CAM guidance has
suggested the convective overturning that has occurred this
afternoon will affect the strength of the MCS as is moves through
the CWA, limiting the severe threat across northern sections.

The now developing MCS is expected to be south and east of the
forecast area by 12z/10. A few light showers are possible across
northern sections of the state Saturday morning, otherwise dry
conditions are expected for the rest of the forecast period.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
An upper level zonal flow pattern is expected to persist thru much
of the period across Arkansas.

A cold front will be moving down over Arkansas on Monday, but with a
zonal pattern it will likely slowly ease thru the state over the
course of a day and stall south of the area. Eventually a surface
high will settle into the Ohio River Valley by Friday, resulting in
a E-NE surface flow.

A series of shortwaves will push thru the nearly zonal pattern over
time, resulting in low level POP chances. Toward the latter half of
the forecast period, a stationary boundary to the south may result
in some overrunning across AR. With that in mind, I have gone with
higher POPs in the Wed-Fri time frame.&&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

66

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 9, 4:57 PM CDT, 6 hours 52 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
457 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
457 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe,
will be possible through the remainder of the day. Large hail and
strong winds will be the primary concerns. A few tornadoes can
not be ruled out as well.

Later this evening and into early Saturday morning, an MCS is
expected to develop over eastern Oklahoma, and track across
central and especially southern Arkansas. As this line of storms
moves east, strong and damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
with some brief tornadoes possible as well.

Forecast rainfall amounts of one inch to one and a half inches
over the southeastern half of the state where soil moisture and
streams remain elevated from previous rainfall in the month could
lead to an isolated flash flooding threat through the overnight
period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected during the period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 9, 6:43 PM CDT, 5 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
643 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUMAS                   33.88N  91.49W
04/09/2021                   DESHA              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100571

GOUDSWARD

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 10:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1027 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ037-040-041-100430-
Polk AR-Scott AR-Montgomery AR-
1027 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...SCOTT AND WESTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1027 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Howe to 7 miles northwest of Mountain Fork
to 10 miles south of Octavia. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Hatfield...                       Oden...
Vandervoort...                    Beauchamp...
Cardiff...                        Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Mountain Fork...                  Bard Springs Recreation Area...
Albert Pike Recreation Area...    Opal...
Cossatot River State Park...      Polk County Fairgrounds...
Mena Intermountain Airport...     Mccauley...
Shady...                          Oliver...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
western Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3495 9441 3494 9439 3496 9437
      3495 9434 3496 9426 3497 9423 3500 9423
      3501 9372 3458 9371 3435 9382 3436 9425
      3420 9425 3425 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 279DEG 43KT 3492 9467 3470 9454 3438 9469

Cavanaugh

Local storm report, Apr 9, 11:11 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1111 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             2 E DOVER               35.40N  93.08W
04/09/2021  M1.00 INCH       POPE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST SHOWS QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100572

JBC

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 11:15 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ022-030-031-038-100500-
Pope AR-Logan AR-Yell AR-Conway AR-
1115 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN
CONWAY...NORTHEASTERN YELL AND SOUTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

At 1115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mosley, or 9 miles northeast of Danville, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Dardanelle...
Atkins...                         Pottsville...
Petit Jean State Park...          Lake Dardanelle State Park...
Carden Bottoms...                 Happy Bend...
Petit Jean River WMA...           Galla Creek WMA...
Mt Nebo State Park...             Mosley...
Lake Dardanelle...                Lakeview in Yell County...
Ranger...                         Holla Bend...
Blackwell...                      Mt George...
Pontoon...                        Chickalah...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
western and central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3504 9333 3521 9340 3539 9287 3513 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 252DEG 24KT 3515 9327

Goudsward

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 11:42 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ037-038-041-100530-
Scott AR-Yell AR-Montgomery AR-
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...SOUTHWESTERN
YELL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1139 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cardiff, or 12 miles east of Waldron, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cardiff...                        Gravelly...
Fourche Valley...                 Muddy Creek WMA...
Union Hill...                     Wing...
Chula...                          Olio...
Cedar Creek...                    Gibbs...
Bluffton...                       Rover...
Nola...                           Harvey...
Onyx...                           Fourche Mountain Recreation Are...
Parks...                          Briggsville...
Blue Ball...                      Story...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
western and central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3498 9398 3496 9333 3461 9347 3480 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 284DEG 40KT 3488 9388

232

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 11:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ041-042-052>054-100530-
Hot Spring AR-Pike AR-Clark AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK...PIKE...
SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND...WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING AND SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Norman to near Crater Of
Diamonds State Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro...                   Glenwood...
Amity...                          Okolona...
Daisy...                          Halfway...
Daisy State Park...               Crater Of Diamonds State Park...
Narrows Dam...                    Lofton...
Delight...                        Antoine...
Billstown...                      Alpine...
Bonnerdale...                     Lodi...
Langley...                        Nathan...
Point Cedar...                    Pisgah...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central, western and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3435 9393 3442 9321 3394 9319 3394 9335
      3396 9338 3395 9342 3396 9347 3395 9349
      3394 9353 3396 9353 3396 9362 3398 9365
      3401 9375 3401 9382 3418 9382 3419 9393
      3426 9392 3427 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 263DEG 35KT 3436 9372 3399 9374

230

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 9, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Newton	57 min
Apr 9, 10:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Polk, Scott	63 min
Apr 9, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Scott, Yell	65 min
Apr 9, 10:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pope	32 min
Apr 9, 11:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope	45 min
Apr 9, 11:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Montgomery	48 min
Apr 10, 12:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Calhoun, Clark, Dallas, Ouachita	46 min
Apr 10, 12:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Garland, Saline	42 min
Apr 10, 12:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Grant, Hot Spring, Saline	48 min
Apr 10, 12:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas	48 min
Apr 10, 1:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Woodruff	45 min
Apr 10, 1:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lonoke	51 min
Apr 10, 1:24 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski	115 min
Apr 10, 1:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Drew, Lincoln	30 min
Apr 10, 1:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Jackson	42 min
Apr 10, 2:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe	45 min
Apr 10, 2:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Arkansas	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.