Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.AVIATION...
An upper level system is approaching from Oklahoma this morning
and will move across Arkansas during the day today with showers
and thunderstorms. Expect a lull in activity late tonight but
showers will develop by Thursday morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. Good chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through much of the period. VFR to IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 356 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

A large upper ridge is over the east coast this morning with an
upper low over the desert southwest. This upper ridge will be
suppressed to the southeast as another upper trough moves southeast
from the northern Plains Thursday. The southwest low will become
cutoff from the main flow and blocked by the upper ridge in the Gulf
of Mexico, keeping it in west Texas through Thursday night.

Moisture has increased over Arkansas. Dew points are in the 60s to
lower 70s this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are located in the
northwest part of the state. A short wave will move through the area
today and bring good chances of showers and thunderstorms to a good
portion of the state. The heaviest rain amounts will be in the
northwest today and west central tonight. 2 to 4 inches of rain is
expected in these areas but these are the driest areas over the last
30 days. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible but
is not expected to be widespread. A cold front will move into
northwest Arkansas tonight continuing the rain chances through
Thursday. Rain chances will taper off Thursday night.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and in the lower 70s
to lower 80s Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s and then lower 50s to lower 60s Thursday night.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The cold front will have moved south of the state at the start of
the long term period...with rain chances decreasing form north to
south. These drier conditions will be seen into Fri night and early
Sat. However...a closed upper low to the SW over SWRN TX will begin
lifting NE...weakening into an open wave as it passes over AR Sun
into Mon. This will bring rain chances back to the forecast for the
latter half of the weekend.

While the best POPs will be seen Sun into Mon as the upper shortwave
passes overhead...some lingering POPs will remain in the forecast as
a new...but weaker...upper disturbance passes over the region in
active SW flow aloft. While climatology suggests SVR Wx potential
will exists with either system...current data suggests limited
instability for the late weekend system. Even so...uncertainty
remains high this far out in time...especially by early next week
with the late forecast precip.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
804 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
804 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area. Two to two
and a half inches of rain is expected in north and west sections.
Isolated cases of flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday
through Friday. The latest data suggests the heaviest rainfall
will occur over northern and western Arkansas, with amounts of two
to four inches possible. This includes locations north and west
of Texarkana, Conway, and Jonesboro. If this much rain
materializes, some flash flooding may happen. Farther southeast,
the forecast calls for one to two inches of rain.

While severe weather appears likely in portions of the southern
Plains, severe storms should be spotty mainly north and west of
Little Rock. The main concerns will be strong to damaging winds and
hail.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.