Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Little Rock, AR

364 
WWUS54 KLZK 092125
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
425 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARC011-025-041-043-069-079-092200-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-210409T2200Z/
Bradley AR-Cleveland AR-Desha AR-Drew AR-Jefferson AR-Lincoln AR-
425 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR BRADLEY...EASTERN CLEVELAND...WESTERN DESHA...DREW...SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 423 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Feenyville to near Plantersville to near Ladelle,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello...                     Warren...
Dumas...                          Dermott...
Star City...                      Rison...
Rohwer...                         Gould...
Hermitage...                      Wilmar...
Grady...                          Arkansas City...
Mitchellville...                  Tillar...
Winchester...                     Ingalls...
Whitefield...                     Plantersville...
McGehee...                        Little Bayou Meto Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage across portions of Cleveland, Lincoln and Drew Counties. 
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from 
windows.
 
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and flash
flooding may occur. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9218 3321 9222 3325 9223 3328 9236
      3366 9211 3398 9225 3416 9152 3377 9123
      3357 9121 3356 9125 3352 9125 3352 9135
      3356 9135 3356 9145 3339 9146 3340 9199
      3339 9198 3338 9196 3330 9198 3316 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 251DEG 44KT 3399 9199 3375 9181 3346 9188 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

67

273 
WWUS54 KLZK 092140
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
440 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARC011-025-041-043-069-079-092200-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-210409T2200Z/
Bradley AR-Cleveland AR-Desha AR-Drew AR-Jefferson AR-Lincoln AR-
440 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRADLEY...NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...WESTERN DESHA...
DREW...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 440 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Whitefield to near Omega to 10 miles northeast of
Ladelle, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello...                     Dumas...
Dermott...                        Star City...
Rohwer...                         Gould...
Wilmar...                         Grady...
Arkansas City...                  Mitchellville...
Tillar...                         Winchester...
Ingalls...                        Whitefield...
Plantersville...                  McGehee...
Little Bayou Meto Park...         Douglas...
Nebo...                           Feenyville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and flash
flooding may occur. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9218 3321 9222 3325 9223 3326 9228
      3368 9190 3404 9202 3416 9152 3377 9123
      3357 9121 3356 9125 3352 9125 3352 9135
      3356 9135 3356 9145 3339 9146 3340 9199
      3339 9198 3338 9196 3330 9198 3316 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 270DEG 50KT 3407 9175 3383 9157 3354 9164 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to utilize CAM guidance for placement of
TSRA at sites through 12z/10. Expect low MVFR ceilings to affect
sites during the second half of the valid TAF period, affecting
northern sections the longest.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 653 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021)
AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 09/12Z TAFs

VFR condns were noted across the FA Fri morning. A warm frnt
located over Cntrl LA was tracking N/wrd slower than guidance
depicted. As this frnt slowly moves N/wrd into the state, cloud
cover wl increase along w/ developing SHRA/TS at most terminals.
Late in the PD, a line of TS is expected to track across the FA
from W to E...have adjusted times accordingly w/ newer guidance
along w/ introducing TEMPO TSRA groups at most terminals. Winds
through the PD wl transition from Srly to become more Erly,
however a more VRB pattern is expected later in the PD.

/232/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 346 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

.Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remains in place for
portions of western, central, and southern Arkansas Friday
afternoon and evening into early Saturday morning, however severe
threat remains conditional and uncertain...

.Synopsis...

Latest WV sat imgry and mesoanalysis data indicated a quasi-closed
H500 low pivoting N/wrd over the Midwest, w/ another shortwave trof
upstream over the Nrn Cont Divide. Over the Srn Cntrl US, cyclonic
sfc flow was noted over Wrn TX, w/ a weak warm frnt extending E-
S/Ewrd over Ern TX and into Cntrl LA. To the S of this bndry, a
moist Gulf airmass characterized by Td's in excess of 65-70F was
noted.

.Today...

The aforementioned upper shortwave is progged to dig S/wrd into the
Cntrl Plains and drive a cold frnt S/wrd w/ it. The warm frnt is
expected to be located near the AR/LA border around 12Z Fri morning,
w/ poleward moisture transport resulting in a plume of 65F+ Td's
following behind. WAA/moisture advection wl continue to extend into
the Srn half of the FA as the sfc low to the W begins arc to the N/E
into OK.

00Z/06Z CAM guidance cont to suggest morning and early
afternoon shower/tstorm activity wl be in place along the advancing
warm frnt. Greater variance remains among guidance regarding the
Nrly extent of the bndry, however consensus is pinning the bndry
stalling near the I40 corridor, particularly as shower/tstorm
activity increases. Pt fcst soundings suggest the presence of an
EML, which will help in providing steep mid-lvl lapse rates w/
minimal capping invof the bndry and over Srn AR. ML buoyancy progs
remain around 2000-2500 J/kg...it is noted that higher buoyancy
progs assume greater bndry layer moisture content, e.g. Td's in
excess of 65F, and this wl be dependent on the movement of the warm
frnt. Scattered cellular development could contribute to an enhanced
large/damaging hail threat through the afternoon and early evening
over portions of Cntrl and Srn AR.

.Friday Night...

The evolution of a nocturnal MCS over the Srn half of the state late
Fri night/early Sat morning remains conditional and
uncertain...Lingering cirrus shields from afternoon precip and lower-
lvl cloud cover via WAA wl hinder diurnal heating potential w/
evening T's hanging around the low-70s. A stout Theta-E grad wl
accompany the warm frnt where it stalls, and a nocturnal forward
propagating MCS as depicted somewhat consistently by CAM guidance is
expected to follow the Srn periphery of this sfc feature. Bndry
layer stabilization following earlier precip wl certainly play a
role towards the magnitude of available nocturnal buoyancy, w/ pt
fcst soundings still suggesting ML buoyancy of ~500-750 J/kg across
Srn AR after 00Z. Modest 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-40 kts in
conjunction w/ a 40 kt LLJ wl aid in cold pool/shear balance and
could support a longer lived propagating MCS over the Srn portion of
the FA.

Should the conditionality of this fcst materialize, an enhanced
damaging wind threat wl exist over Srn AR along the aforementioned
Theta-E grad as an MCS tracks through the region. A minimal but non-
zero QLCS tornado threat wl exist as well given sufficient 0-3 km
bulk shear values.

Fcst QPF of one inch to one and a half inches over the S/Ern half of
the state where soil moisture and streams remain elevated from
previous rainfall in the month could lead to an isolated flash
flooding threat through the overnight PD.

.Saturday...

By Sat morning, sfc low pressure be located over the lower OH river
valley, w/ a tailing cold frnt draped over AR from the N/E to S/W.
Settled wx will be noted for the Natural State on Saturday as broad
high pressure promotes subsidence and clearing skies. Drier and
cooler air will be seen around the region w/ seasonable temps in the
60s over the N, and low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

No significant changes were made to the going fcst. The
aforementioned upr storm sys wl be departing the region on Sun, with
high pres settling into the area. Cooler temps wl be noted early
Sun, but readings wl rebound into the 70s by the aftn, under
abundant sunshine.

Model solutions thru the new work week cont to indc a mainly zonal
flow pattern acrs the Mid-South. A weak CDFNT is progged to drop
SEWD thru AR Mon and early Mon ngt, eventually stalling south of the
state thereafter. Data suggest that precip assocd with the FROPA wl
be post-fntl and have included some slgt chc PoPs durg that time
frame.

Beyond Mon, a series of weak upr lvl impulses wl traverse the
region. These systems wl interact with the stalled fntl bndry to
bring additional rain chcs to much of the area every other day.
Timing of these weak features rmn problematic with the various model
solutions, so opted to keep PoPs mainly in the chc category. The
better rain chcs/QPF amts wl be acrs Srn AR, closer to the stalled
bndry.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
349 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-100900-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
349 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, of which some could be
strong, are expected to develop over central and southern Arkansas
late Friday morning and continue into the early afternoon. Some
large hail may accompany these storms.

Later Friday night and into early Saturday morning, an MCS is
expected to develop over eastern Oklahoma, and track across southern
Arkansas. As this line of storms moves east, strong and damaging
winds will be the primary hazard, with some brief QLCS tornadoes
possible as well.

Forecast rainfall amounts of one inch to one and a half inches
over the southeastern half of the state where soil moisture and
streams remain elevated from previous rainfall in the month could
lead to an isolated flash flooding threat through the overnight
period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected during the period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

232/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WIND        MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N  92.38W
04/09/2021  M51 MPH          BAXTER             AR   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100556

TEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
326 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             3 SSW BRAGG CITY        33.63N  93.01W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       OUACHITA           AR   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100557

GOUDSWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW FAWN PARK          36.37N  92.38W
04/09/2021  M61 MPH          BAXTER             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100558

TEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE EAST CAMDEN        33.55N  92.67W
04/09/2021                   CALHOUN            AR   PUBLIC

            POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100559

TEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
347 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ008-017-092130-
Lawrence AR-Randolph AR-
347 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RANDOLPH AND CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Minturn, or near Hoxie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas...                     Walnut Ridge...
Hoxie...                          Black Rock...
Reyno...                          College City...
Portia...                         Maynard...
Biggers...                        O'Kean...
Minturn...                        Whiskerville...
Giles Spur...                     Shannon...
Dicus...                          Elnora...
Lauratown...                      Clover Bend...
Fender...                         Coffman...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3609 9079 3608 9082 3605 9083 3589 9097
      3598 9116 3650 9083 3647 9077 3643 9078
      3643 9076 3642 9077 3641 9075 3628 9075
      3628 9078 3629 9079 3629 9081 3615 9081
      3615 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 211DEG 33KT 3600 9103

Goudsward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
351 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W EAST CAMDEN         33.61N  92.76W
04/09/2021                   OUACHITA           AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A HOME IN EAST CAMDEN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100560

TEJ