Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Little Rock, AR

April 7, 2021Montgomery County, Scott County, Yell County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 7, 2021, 3:03 PM CDT for Montgomery County, Scott County, Yell County, Arkansas. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 7, 2021, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired: Apr 7, 2021, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Montgomery County, AR, Scott County, AR, Yell County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 7, 12:38 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 790 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -275 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 767 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 186 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 223 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

188 
WUUS54 KLZK 072003
SVRLZK
ARC097-127-149-072045-
/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0065.210407T2003Z-210407T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Scott County in western Arkansas...
  Southwestern Yell County in central Arkansas...
  North central Montgomery County in western Arkansas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 302 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
  of Oden, or 16 miles southeast of Waldron, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gravelly...                       Muddy Creek WMA...
  Chula...                          Harvey...
  Bluffton...                       Story...
  Nola...                           

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for western and
central Arkansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 9378 3475 9379 3485 9381 3495 9355
      3470 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 247DEG 31KT 3471 9391 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DTC

2 follow-up statements

014 
WWUS54 KLZK 072018
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARC097-127-072028-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-210407T2045Z/
Scott AR-Montgomery AR-
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SCOTT AND NORTH
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for western and
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3488 9371 3493 9361 3495 9355 3479 9350
      3475 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 245DEG 37KT 3483 9360 

$$

ARC149-072045-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-210407T2045Z/
Yell AR-
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL COUNTY...

At 318 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Muddy Creek
WMA, or 19 miles southwest of Danville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gravelly...                       Muddy Creek WMA...
Bluffton...                       Chula...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for western and
central Arkansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 9371 3493 9361 3495 9355 3479 9350
      3475 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 245DEG 37KT 3483 9360 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DTC

681 
WWUS54 KLZK 072036
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARC149-072046-
/O.EXP.KLZK.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-210407T2045Z/
Yell AR-
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for western and
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3488 9371 3493 9361 3495 9355 3479 9350
      3475 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 247DEG 31KT 3489 9343 

$$

DTC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 7, 2:07 PM CDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 2:07 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
207 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

A tornado watch has been issued for the entire forecast area until
1AM Thurs morning.

METSAT/radar showing a N-S oriented line of storms along a cold
front, currently located along the OK/AR border early this
afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop along and
ahead of the cold front through late this evening. The primary
concerns with these storms will be damaging winds between 60 to 80
mph, large hail greater than one inch, with the possibility of a few
tornadoes.

A 500mb low over KS/OK will shift NNE this afternoon/evening and
move into MO over the next 24 hrs, with upper level forcing for
ascent above AR through late this evening. Strong southerly flow
will continue to carry warmer air and moisture into the region ahead
of the front, with dew points in the 60s and highs into the 70s this
afternoon.

The latest mescoanalyses and our 18Z special upper air sounding
indicate increased instability (MUCAPE 1077 J/kg) from this
morning's 90 J/kg. Bulk shear values are between 40 and 55 kts this
afternoon and radar data is showing obvious tilting along the line
of storms moving into W AR. SRH values above 200 m2/s2 support the
development of supercells along this line of storms, capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes this afternoon
through this evening.

After this front exits the eastern portion of the state late this
evening dry conditions are forecast through Friday. By Friday
morning, rain chances will return over the southern portions of the
state as a warm front approaches from the SW. Showers and
thunderstorms will then expand into all but the NE portions of the
state by Friday afternoon as the warm front advances northward.
Showers and storms will expand over the rest of the state late
Friday and into the long term period as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Arkansas will continue to be under a fairly active pattern during
the extended term. Things start off with a cold front pushing thru
the area, with a series of upper lows spinning over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region. All of this should make for a fairly
soggy Saturday.

By Sunday high pressure should settle into the state, but a
secondary front will quickly follow on Monday, bringing rain chances
once again.

Model solutions start to diverge quite a bit by midweek. The GFS
wants to develop a trof over the west coast, with some ridging over
the Great Plains by midweek. The ECMWF has a trof over the central
portion of the country instead, and other models are split between
these solutions. With low confidence levels in the forecast, I have
opted to broadbrush low POPs after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     47  72  52  78 /  60  10  10  20
Camden AR         51  80  55  81 /  30  10  20  40
Harrison AR       45  68  50  77 /  10  10  10  20
Hot Springs AR    48  77  53  78 /  10  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  49  75  53  79 /  40  10  10  30
Monticello AR     53  78  56  80 /  80  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      48  76  53  78 /  10  10  10  40
Mountain Home AR  45  69  50  79 /  20  10  10  20
Newport AR        48  71  49  78 /  80  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     51  76  54  79 /  70  10  20  30
Russellville AR   46  74  51  79 /  10  10  10  30
Searcy AR         47  74  49  79 /  60  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      50  75  53  79 /  70  10  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...SHELTON / Long Term...53

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 1:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
123 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong southerly winds of 10-15 knots and gusts of 20+ knots will
be noted across the state ahead of an advancing cold front.
Boaters and lake/river goers should take precautions if they are
anticipating to be on the water this afternoon.

The cold front will move through the region this afternoon into
early evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely over western and
central Arkansas this afternoon with the line of storm reaching
eastern Arkansas early this evening. Large hail, strong winds and
even a few tornadoes will be possible especially in the late
afternoon through early evening hours.

Locally heavy rainfall could be seen as well with widespread
accumulations of up to one inch and locally greater amounts
possible...which may result in an isolated flash flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 2:34 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARZ034-045>047-072015-
Monroe AR-Lonoke AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-
234 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOODRUFF...CENTRAL
PRAIRIE...EAST CENTRAL LONOKE AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hazen, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brinkley...                       Des Arc...
Hazen...                          De Valls Bluff...
Carlisle...                       Fredonia...
Hunter...                         Barrettsville...
Prairie Center...                 Hallsville...
Cotton Plant...                   Fargo...
Becton...                         Screeton...
Sand Hill...                      Penrose...
Brasfield...                      Childers...
Dagmar WMA...                     Little Dixie...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central and
eastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3491 9115 3491 9112 3490 9112
      3468 9165 3483 9176 3522 9106 3519 9104
      3500 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 238DEG 42KT 3480 9163

Goudsward

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 2:39 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARZ003-004-012-013-072030-
Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEARCY...EASTERN
NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN MARION AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Walnut, or 11 miles south of Jasper, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper...                         Western Grove...
Valley Springs...                 Dugger...
Piercetown...                     Carver...
Pruitt...                         Everton...
Pindall...                        Wayton...
Marble Falls...                   Yardelle...
Crossroad...                      Vendor...
Parthenon...                      Swain...
Gum Springs in Newton County...   Mt Judea...
Deer...                           Cowell...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3574 9323 3584 9337 3618 9311 3615 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 219DEG 40KT 3585 9323

DTC

Local storm report, Apr 7, 2:41 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT WED APR 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             QUITMAN                 35.38N  92.21W
04/07/2021  E1.00 INCH       CLEBURNE           AR   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL ON WESLEY CHAPEL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100548

57

Local storm report, Apr 7, 2:51 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT WED APR 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             LITTLE ROCK             34.72N  92.35W
04/07/2021  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100549

TRS

Local storm report, Apr 7, 2:54 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT WED APR 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             QUITMAN                 35.38N  92.21W
04/07/2021  E1.50 INCH       CLEBURNE           AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100550

TRS

Local storm report, Apr 7, 2:55 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT WED APR 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             NORTH LITTLE ROCK       34.79N  92.26W
04/07/2021  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100551

TRS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 7, 8:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope	29 min
Apr 7, 1:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Sebastian	48 min
Apr 7, 1:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson	43 min
Apr 7, 1:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Scott	48 min
Apr 7, 1:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Newton	46 min
Apr 7, 2:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Calhoun, Ouachita	43 min
Apr 7, 2:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Polk	55 min
Apr 7, 2:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Ouachita	27 min
Apr 7, 2:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	14 min
Apr 7, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie	39 min
Apr 7, 2:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Faulkner, Stone, Van Buren, White	33 min
Apr 7, 2:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline	45 min
Apr 7, 2:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	42 min
Apr 7, 2:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Prairie	41 min
Apr 7, 2:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Montgomery, Polk, Scott	39 min
Apr 7, 2:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Newton	51 min
Apr 7, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Grant, Jefferson, Ouachita	30 min
Apr 7, 2:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Logan, Yell	45 min
Apr 7, 3:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lincoln	41 min
Apr 7, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski, White	40 min
Apr 7, 3:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Grant	51 min
Apr 7, 3:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Yell	39 min
Apr 7, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Pope, Yell	32 min
Apr 7, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Independence, Jackson, White	44 min
Apr 7, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Yell	23 min
Apr 7, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Yell	17 min
Apr 7, 3:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski	30 min
Apr 7, 3:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lawrence, Randolph	25 min
Apr 7, 3:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope	59 min
Apr 7, 4:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Arkansas	52 min
Apr 7, 4:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie	49 min
Apr 7, 6:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2021 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.