Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Little Rock, AR

931 
WWUS54 KLZK 132330
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARC127-132339-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-211014T0000Z/
Scott AR-
630 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3532 9381 3543 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3559 9370 3568 9352 3530 9338 3515 9353
      3515 9366 3513 9366 3523 9392 3524 9392
      3532 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 234DEG 38KT 3539 9390 3535 9385 3528 9385 3523
9389

$$

ARC071-083-140000-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-211014T0000Z/
Logan AR-Johnson AR-
630 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL LOGAN AND WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

At 629 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Branch to near Ratcliff, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Paris...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Scranton...                       Ratcliff...
Woodland...                       Hinkle...
Hoyt...                           Mount Magazine...
Midway in Logan County...         Spadra...
Tokalon...                        Lake Dardanelle...
Coal Hill...                      Caulksville...
Morrison Bluff...                 Roseville...
Dublin...                         Ludwig...

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 44 and 59.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9381 3543 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3559 9370 3568 9352 3530 9338 3515 9353
      3515 9366 3513 9366 3523 9392 3524 9392
      3532 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 234DEG 38KT 3539 9390 3535 9385 3528 9385 3523
9389

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

62

330 
WWUS54 KLZK 132340
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARC071-083-140000-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-211014T0000Z/
Logan AR-Johnson AR-
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

At 640 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Altus to near Denning to near Paris, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Hartman...
Scranton...                       Hoyt...
Woodland...                       Hinkle...
Spadra...                         Tokalon...
Lake Dardanelle...                Coal Hill...
Morrison Bluff...                 New Spadra...
Harmony...                        Roseville...
Dublin...                         Ludwig...
Union City...                     Hunt...
Wilkins...                        

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 44 and 59.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9381 3543 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3559 9370 3568 9352 3530 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 243DEG 25KT 3544 9381 3540 9376 3533 9376 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

62

077 
WWUS54 KLZK 132345
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARC071-083-132355-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-211014T0000Z/
Logan AR-Johnson AR-
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3532 9381 3543 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3559 9370 3568 9352 3530 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 258DEG 32KT 3545 9377 3541 9372 3534 9372 

$$

62

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
534 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection in ERN OK and NWRN AR will move slowly NE this
evening...likely impacting the NWRN terminals this evening and
overnight...with some potential impacts at HOT/ADF later tonight.
Coverage should decrease late tonight into Thu morning...but will
still see some convective potential through the rest of the
period. Near sunrise...some low CIGs/DZ will be possible at some
terminals as well. Chances for isolated/scattered convection shift
further east to potentially impact most of the terminals.
However...have only mentioned VCSH/TS at this time as location and
coverage is somewhat uncertain Thu afternoon at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 234 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over eastern OK, combined with a
series of shortwaves rotating around a broad trof across the western
two-thirds of the country...will make for a band of heavy rainfall
across the western portions of the region tonight into tomorrow.
Granted, most of the heavy rainfall will likely be just west of the
forecast area, but some areas of heavy rain could extend a bit
further east. With that in mind, I am issuing a flash flood watch
for the western tier of counties adjacent to TSA.

Aside from that, wet weather is going to remain in the forecast thru
the remainder of the short term period, as the aforementioned trof
slowly amplifies and makes its way to the east.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday Night

Long term PD looks to begin in the wake of a strong fall synoptic
frnt. Aloft, a potent shortwave trof wl be moving quickly across the
Upper Midwest, w/ an associated sfc mass response located over the
Great Lakes. Sat morning, a strong cold frnt is expected to be clear
of the state to the S/E and heading for the Gulf coastline.

In the wake of the frnt, strong sfc high pressure wl settle over the
Mid-South and dominate the wx pattern through much of the long term.
Have excluded Chc PoPs from the majority of the long term, w/ dry wx
expected to prevail. W/ the arrival of the fall airmass, temps wl
return a near normal diurnal trend, w/ highs topping out in the low
to mid 70s and lows dipping into the low to mid 40s early in the PD.
Sun looks to be coldest morning during the PD, however current fcst
guidance remains over 10F above any records.

Tues through the end of the PD, sfc high pressure shifts E/wrd into
the Appalachians, and Srly flow resumes over the region, however
moisture return is not progged to be substantial. W/ the wind shift
and introduction of modest WAA, daily diurnal peaks and valleys wl
moderate towards a warming trend, w/ highs and lows settling in the
80s and 50s at most locations.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR Boone-Johnson-
Logan-Newton-Polk-Scott.

&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
544 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through much of the
evening and overnight. While the overall threat for severe weather
will remain low...an isolated strong storm will be possible over
western into northwest portions of the area. Some locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible...which may lead to an increased
flash flood threat across this same area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast through
Friday as an active pattern prevails. While the potential exists for
a few strong to severe storms...organized severe weather is not
expected at this time. Some heavy rainfall will be a concern over
west and northwest portions of the state...which may lead to an
increased flash flood threat through at least Thursday afternoon.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
556 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARZ030-037-132330-
Scott AR-Logan AR-
556 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Logan and
northwestern Scott Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lavaca to near Bloomer to Burnville to
near Huntington. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Booneville...                     Paris...
Mansfield...                      Magazine...
Subiaco...                        Ratcliff...
Blue Mountain...                  Echo...
Caulksville...                    Barber...
Roseville...                      Lucas...
Chismville...                     Wilkins...
Carbon City...                    Sugar Grove...
Driggs...                         Carolan...
Grayson...                        Glendale in Logan County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 9422 3510 9414 3514 9414 3514 9403
      3523 9403 3523 9392 3532 9391 3531 9381
      3543 9381 3540 9379 3536 9375 3538 9369
      3540 9367 3534 9361 3528 9362 3503 9376
      3505 9423 3506 9423 3506 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 257DEG 38KT 3529 9421 3525 9416 3519 9417 3512
9423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62