Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Little Rock, AR

431 
WWUS54 KLZK 172055
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
355 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

ARC113-172105-
/O.EXP.KLZK.SV.W.0221.000000T0000Z-210617T2100Z/
Polk AR-
355 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL POLK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3443 9416 3436 9405 3435 9405 3436 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 041DEG 13KT 3432 9418 

$$

232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

T/Td values are about the same or slightly higher than this time
yesterday with only a few showers/storms across the area so far
today. Have maintained 20 POPs through sunset across much of the
forecast area as confidence in coverage remains limited. An
unstable atmosphere combined with a remnant boundary and a weak
piece of H500 shortwave energy traversing the area could provide
for a few additional thunderstorms across the area. A brief heavy
downpour as well as a few strong wind gusts will be possible with
any storms that develop.

Otherwise, a dry forecast with above normal temperatures will
persist through much of Saturday across the state. Some rain
chances exist across southeast portions of the state as the
potential tropical cyclone progresses northeast and inland from
the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts across the SE are expected
to remain light. Heat indices at times could approach or exceed
100 F, but most of the area should remain below heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday

To begin the period, the tropical disturbance, currently located in
the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to be located near LA/MS/AL. As of
right now minor impacts are expected for the CWA. Model guidance
continues to show high westerly and southwesterly wind shear
impacting the system keeping convection/rain showers heavily
weighted to the eastern half of the center. Therefore, any impacts
would likely be confined to the extreme southeastern parts of the
CWA and would occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning. With
that said, this is still an evolving system and will continue to be
monitored for any potential changes.

A better chance for rain comes on Monday into Tuesday associated
with a strong cold front moving in from the NW. While this front
does not look to stall across the state, heavy rain seems likely
across the CWA as abundant moisture surges in from the Gulf of
Mexico and PWAT values ranging anywhere from 1.50-2.00 inches.
Isolated flash flooding could be possible, especially where
grounds are already saturated.

Behind the cold front comes drier air and cooler temperatures. By
Wednesday it is expected that high temperatures may not get above
the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low
60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  94  70  92 /  10   0   0  10
Camden AR         68  94  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       71  92  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  93  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  71  92  71  90 /  10   0   0  20
Monticello AR     68  93  71  87 /   0   0   0  40
Mount Ida AR      69  92  67  92 /  10   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  71  93  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        72  93  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     70  93  71  89 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   72  94  69  93 /  10   0   0  10
Searcy AR         70  93  70  91 /  10   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      71  92  73  90 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...67 / Long Term...CONDRY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
432 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
432 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
today. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, organized
severe weather is not expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf will bring heavy rain to portions
of the south and southeast this weekend, however, the latest
forecast data suggest the threat for heavy rain for Arkansas has
decreased.

By early next week, a strong cold front will bring another round of
showers and storms to the area. Severe weather appears unlikely with
this front, although locally heavy rain is expected and some flooding
will be possible.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

ARZ008-171730-
Randolph AR-
1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Randolph County through 1230 PM CDT...

At 1201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maynard, or 9 miles south of Doniphan, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas, Reyno, Maynard, Biggers, Attica, Elkins Park, Brakebill,
Middlebrook, Ingram, Stokes, Engelerg, Brockett and Pitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9077 3644 9078 3643 9077 3643 9076
      3642 9077 3641 9075 3631 9075 3626 9106
      3650 9099 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 004DEG 17KT 3649 9088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

ARZ040-172100-
Polk AR-
336 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Polk
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hartley, or 7 miles northwest of Umpire, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shady, Caney Creek Wilderness, Hartley and Shady Lake Recreation
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 9411 3436 9402 3435 9403 3436 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 034DEG 16KT 3435 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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