Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Little Rock, AR

429 
WWUS54 KLZK 120223
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
923 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

ARC005-089-120245-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-210612T0245Z/
Marion AR-Baxter AR-
923 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND BAXTER COUNTIES...

At 923 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Ozark Isle to near Arkawana to near Gamaliel Landing,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Gassville...                      Flippin...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Salesville...
Briarcliff...                     Arkawana...
Diamond Bay...                    Ozark Regional Airport...
Gamaliel Landing...               Ozark Isle...
Fawn Park...                      Bull Shoals State Park...
Shipp...                          Colfax...
Cartney...                        Price Place...
Cotter...                         Midway in Baxter County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 9215 3631 9216 3619 9237 3628 9271
      3650 9278 3650 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 328DEG 28KT 3644 9263 3643 9242 3648 9229 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
556 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are ongoing early this Fri evening...which should
remain dominant for most terminals overnight and through Sat.
However...some patchy fog may be seen at central/SRN terminals
near sunrise. A TSRA cluster in MO/KS early this evening may
remain intact this evening into the early overnight period...which
could impact the NRN terminals. Have mentioned VCTS and tempo TSRA
at these terminals late this evening and just after midnight for
this potential.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Long story short - hot and humid conditions are going to continue
thru the short term as a ridge builds to the west of us. A N to NW
flow aloft will persist, and it certainly looks like an MCS may form
upstream of the forecast area tonight. There are some uncertainties
as to exactly where it may form, and where it may move, but with the
flow pattern the way it is, portions of northern AR could certainly
end up under the downstream remnants of any MCS development.

Additional thunderstorms may pop up just about anywhere during the
afternoon hours tomorrow, although the presence of any old outflow
boundaries may serve as a focal point for convection. By Sunday,
afternoon convection will likely be limited to the southeast quarter
of the state.

Heat index values will be getting up pretty close to advisory
criteria in some areas this weekend, but I anticipate that they
will fall just a bit short of criteria.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday

The period begins with high pressure building in creating a
summer- like pattern through the middle of next week. Temperatures
are expected to be above normal across the CWA. Highs looks to be
in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

This summer-like pattern and a building ridge will lead to low PoP
chances through the period. With that said, confidence is not very
high on PoPs. Current forecast tends to lean more on model guidance
because of timing being in long term with model guidance being less
enthusiastic about rain potential through late next week.
However, it would not be a surprise to see some summertime
convection during any of these days, especially late in the
period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
411 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-120915-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
411 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog is expected this morning. A few places could see dense
fog reducing visibility. Isolated to scatterd showers and
thunderstorms will develop mainly this afternoon and evening. An
isolated storm or two could become strong to severe, with gusty
winds the primary hazard.

Given excessive rainfall over the last several days and an
extremely saturated soil surface, it will not take much runoff
from heavy rainfall to quickly cause flash flooding. Where
rainfall accumulations are the greatest, flash flooding may be
considerable to significant in nature at times. Please be sure to
heed local emergency management guidance on road closures due to
high water, and avoid flooded areas if possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

A weather pattern more typical of summer will develop over the
region heading into the weekend as a large upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the nations mid section. Hot and humid
conditions will return with chances of afternoon through early
evening showers and thunderstorms. An occasional strong storm can
not be discounted but organized severe weather is not likely.

Highs are expected to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s through
Tuesday before some slightly cooler air moves in. With the soil
being saturated and lots of standing water likely, very muggy
conditions are expected as well. Heat index values will approach the
century mark across parts of the state this weekend.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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