Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Little Rock, AR

940 
WWUS54 KLZK 101620
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1120 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARC127-101630-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-210510T1645Z/
Scott AR-
1120 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3486 9445 3498 9405 3469 9399 3474 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 266DEG 35KT 3482 9427 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR to IFR stratus continues with minimal if any
improvement over central/southern terminals this period. Cigs
may lift to low VFR this afternoon before dropping back to
MVFR/IFR after 11/00Z, although confidence is low. Also not
confident in coverage of TSRA today, although HOT/ADF carry the
highest probability, so included VC mention with activity most
likely by and after 10/17-18Z. Winds will remain largely N/NE and
any gusts should diminish by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 358 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

A cold front over far southern AR continues to slowly sink south
this morning with rain and thunder now well removed from the area.
As the southern periphery of a large surface ridge noses in from
the Plains today, expecting winds to remain northerly to
northeasterly and relatively dry air to remain in place near the
surface. Temperatures will only reach the 60s by this afternoon
and dewpoint temperatures in the 40s and 50s will keep humidity
low.

The main weather concern heading into mid-week will be rain and
thunder potential. Flow aloft will remain largely zonal through
the period with troughiness confined to the central and northern
Plains. As disturbances translate through this mean flow pattern,
expecting subtle forcing and moisture advection to produce
scattered showers and storms locally with coverage most closely
tied to a lingering frontal boundary at 850 mb, progged to remain
draped over southern/western sections. Marginal elevated
instability could support some small hail, although severe weather
is not anticipated.

Precipitation coverage will expand by Tuesday and Tuesday night
as another mid/upper level trough moves across the Plains.
Temperatures will remain below average through the end of the
period.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday Night

Showers will linger over southern Arkansas on Wednesday as
a front slowly settles toward the Gulf Coast. Behind the
front, a large area of high pressure will build over the
region from the north Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, the high will slide to the east, and return
flow will bring progressively warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture. As this happens, several models are showing a storm
system heading this way from the southwest United States. Ridging
will be noted over the south central/southeast states, and this
will tend to slow the system down.

As the system slowly approaches, have isolated scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitation will be mostly confined to northern/western sections
of the state.

Temperatures will be largely below average until the weekend, with
at/above normal readings thereafter.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...DTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
402 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
402 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop across southern
and western Arkansas through tonight. Aside from small hail, no
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARZ037-040-101630-
Polk AR-Scott AR-
1100 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POLK AND WESTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heavener, or 18 miles south of Poteau, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waldron...                        Beauchamp...
Oliver...                         Morgan Springs...
Bates...                          Black Fork...
Cauthron...                       Black Fork Mountain Wilderness...
Winfield...                       Hon...
Y City...                         Needmore...
Boles...                          Rich Mountain...

LAT...LON 3491 9445 3496 9429 3496 9426 3497 9423
      3503 9403 3467 9398 3470 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 266DEG 35KT 3479 9457

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