River Flood Warning 176, NWS Little Rock, AR

615 
WGUS84 KLZK 030114
FLSLZK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
714 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Jackson, Independence and 
  Lawrence Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall 
forecasted to occur over the next 24 hours. During periods of 
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall 
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our 
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
 www.weather.gov/lzk

Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.

&&


ARC063-067-075-031315-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-210306T0200Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.210303T0300Z.210303T1800Z.210304T2000Z.NO/
714 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Friday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Black River At Black Rock.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 6:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this evening, Mar 2, to a crest of 14.5 feet early tomorrow 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday 
  afternoon, Mar 4.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. Farm ground along 
  east bank begins to flood.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 6 PM      Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Wed   Thu   Fri  Crest  Time  Date  

Black River
Black Rock 14.0  13.9 Tue 6 PM  14.5 13.8 13.2   14.5 12 PM 3/03    





&&

LAT...LON 3570 9140 3590 9125 3611 9115 3610 9101
      3588 9110 3564 9128

$$

231

869 
WGUS84 KLZK 031520
FLSLZK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
920 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Jackson, Independence and 
  Lawrence Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall 
forecasted to occur over the next 24 hours. During periods of 
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall 
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our 
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
 www.weather.gov/lzk

Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.

&&


ARC063-067-075-040330-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.210305T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Black River At Black Rock.
* Until further notice.
* At 9:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.5 feet 
  early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. Farm ground along 
  east bank begins to flood.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 12 PM     Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Thu   Fri   Sat  Crest  Time  Date  

Black River
Black Rock 14.0  14.1 Wed 9 AM  14.3 14.5 14.4   14.5 12 PM 3/05    





&&

LAT...LON 3570 9140 3590 9125 3611 9115 3610 9101
      3588 9110 3564 9128

$$

Cooper

726 
WGUS84 KLZK 040059
FLSLZK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
659 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Jackson, Independence and 
  Lawrence Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall 
forecasted to occur over the next 24 hours. During periods of 
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall 
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our 
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
 www.weather.gov/lzk

Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.

&&


ARC063-067-075-041300-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.210305T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
659 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Black River At Black Rock.
* Until further notice.
* At 6:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.5 feet 
  early Friday afternoon, Mar 5.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. Farm ground along 
  east bank begins to flood.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 6 PM      Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Thu   Fri   Sat  Crest  Time  Date  

Black River
Black Rock 14.0  14.1 Wed 6 PM  14.3 14.5 14.4   14.5 12 PM 3/05    





&&

LAT...LON 3570 9140 3590 9125 3611 9115 3610 9101
      3588 9110 3564 9128

$$

231

177 
WGUS84 KLZK 041548
FLSLZK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
948 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Jackson, Independence and 
  Lawrence Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall 
forecasted to occur over the next 24 hours. During periods of 
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall 
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our 
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
 www.weather.gov/lzk

Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.

&&


ARC063-067-075-050400-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-210306T0000Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.210304T1800Z.000000T0000Z.210304T1800Z.NO/
948 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Black River At Black Rock.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 9:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is currently cresting near 14.0 feet and will 
  fall below flood stage later this afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. Farm ground along 
  east bank begins to flood.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 12 PM     Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Fri   Sat   Sun  Crest  Time  Date  

Black River
Black Rock 14.0  14.0 Thu 9 AM  13.8 13.7 13.7     CRESTING    





&&

LAT...LON 3570 9140 3590 9125 3611 9115 3610 9101
      3588 9110 3564 9128

$$

Cooper

413 
WGUS84 KLZK 050052
FLSLZK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Jackson, Independence and 
  Lawrence Counties.

ARC063-067-075-050200-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-210305T0052Z/
/BKRA4.1.ER.210304T1800Z.000000T0000Z.210304T1800Z.NO/
652 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Black River At Black Rock has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Black River At Black Rock.
* At 6:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady below flood 
  stage at 13.8 feet.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 6 PM      Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Fri   Sat   Sun  Crest  Time  Date  

Black River
Black Rock 14.0  13.9 Thu 6 PM  13.7 13.7 13.7  Steady, then falling





&&

LAT...LON 3570 9140 3590 9125 3611 9115 3610 9101
      3588 9110 3564 9128

$$

231

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 02/12Z TAFs

Inc low-lvl cloud cover was noted invof weak radar echoes over Wrn
AR this AM, however sfc obs indicated no actual precip was
ongoing. Through the PD, mid-lvl BKN to OVC cloud deck will be
noted over the Srn half of the fcst area, while Nrn terminals will
remain VFR. PDs of -SHRA will be noted in Srn AR Tues
morning/afternoon but are expected to clear out Tues evening. MVFR
CIGs may accompany -SHRA, particularly at PBF/LLQ, however CIGs
should return to VFR by the end of the PD. Winds will stay VRB
through the PD.

/232/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 313 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Current radar mosaic imgry indicated a region of weak returns
developing over the OK/AR/TX border region. Aloft, mesoanalysis
depicted a robust shortwave perturbation centered over the Red River
valley. Over the next few hours, upper forcing for ascent via DCVA
invof the shortwave will support a window of increasing coverage of
PoPs over the Wrn and S/Wrn portion of the Natural State. More
notably, a brief PD of wintry wx remains possible for portions of
Wrn AR through the morning hours of Tues.

00Z and 06Z hi-res pt fcst soundings suggest mid-lvl RH will be
plentiful w/ lower-lvl saturation lacking, however current sfc obs
over this region displayed T's in the mid-30s w/ dewpoint
depressions around 1-2F. Given radar trends and sfc obs, potential
for wintry precip seems more favorable than would be let on by model
guidance, however confidence still remains lower at this time. Cont
to think the best potential for a rain/snow/sleet mix will be in the
higher terrain of the Ouachita Mtns, and potentially further N into
the Boston Mtns, particularly if wet bulbing occurs and low-lvl RH
increases invof the upper shortwave and height falls aloft.

Should wintry precip occur, accumulations are anticipated to remain
minimal...less than a few tenths of an inch above elevations of 1500
ft...and any travel impacts should remain low.

As T's around the state warm following sunrise, all liquid precip
will be expected through the remainder of the day as the shortwave
cont to move over the state, w/ PoPs tapering off from W to E
through Tues evening, and seasonable T's topping out in the low to
mid-50s.

Wed...sfc high pressure will settle over the state and promote
settled wx w/ clearing skies. This will be conducive for a warming
trend w/ more appropriate spring-like T's Wed afternoon, w/ readings
topping out in the low to mid-60s, and lows Wed night dipping back
down to the upper 30s at most locations.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Not a lot of changes in the extended period, with a quiet pattern
overall. It will be dry Thursday, with the southern stream bringing
a storm system to Arkansas by Friday. Data shows the system diving
to the south toward the Gulf Coast, and it will not be overly
warm/unstable locally. For now, have showers and maybe a few
rumbles of thunder in the forecast, and that is about it.

Once the system exits to the east, the period will end with a broad
area of high pressure from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast
this weekend, and over the southeast United States early next week.

There are indications of another storm system in the
central/southern Plains Sunday/Monday. It appears the system will go
well to the north given ridging in this part of the country, and
will be of little consequence locally.

Temperatures in the coming days will be above average, and closer to
seasonal surrounding the rain on Friday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...GREEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
322 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-030930-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
322 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A brief period of wintry precipitation consisting of rain, snow,
and sleet will be possible over parts of western Arkansas early
Tuesday morning, particularly over the higher terrain of the
Ouachita Mountains, and potentially as far north as the Boston
Mountains. Accumulations are anticipated to remain minimal...less
than a few tenths of an inch, particularly above elevations of
1500 feet...and travel impacts will remain minimal. Through the
day, rain chances will remain for much of the state, tapering off
from west to east by Tuesday night, however, no other hazardous
weather is anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation is not anticipated.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

232/46