River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

435 
WGUS84 KLZK 121544
FLSLZK

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
944 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...

  White River At Augusta affecting White and Woodruff Counties.

ARC145-147-121645-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210112T1544Z/
/AUGA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the White River At Augusta has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the White River At Augusta.
* At 9:00 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 25.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 25.9 feet 
  this afternoon.

&&


           Fld   Observed        Forecast 12 PM     Crest           
Location   Stg   Stg Day/Time   Wed   Thu   Fri  Crest  Time  Date  

White River
Augusta    26.0  25.9 Tue 9 AM  25.7 25.6 25.4   Falling




&&

LAT...LON 3514 9152 3525 9146 3536 9150 3534 9136
      3521 9133 3515 9137

$$

Goudsward

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
517 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.AVIATION...

Updated for the 12Z TAFs...

With the exception of brief MVFR fog and lower ceilings over the
south this morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will largely be light and variable, with sustained
speeds of six knots or less.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Early this morning, high pressure was settling into Arkansas, as
the system responsible for the southern Arkansas snowfall
yesterday moves off the eastern seaboard. Temperatures in most
areas have fallen into the teens and 20s, with the notable
exception being Harrison where west/southwest winds have kicked in
and driven the temperature up to 31 degrees at 3 AM.

Freezing fog has formed over portions of central and southern
Arkansas, and will continue into the morning. It will be most
dense in areas that saw snow. At this time, will cover this hazard
in the HWO and with an SPS, however we could end up posting a
Freezing Fog Advisory if conditions deteriorate.

Regardless, conditions should improve after sunrise, with the fog
dissipating and temperatures going above freezing by mid to late
morning.

As the surface high shifts more into the region, temperatures will
warm quite a bit today (especially when compared to yesterday),
with most areas topping out in the 50s. An upper low currently
over northern Mexico will be absorbed into a longwave trough and
move eastward Wednesday and Wednesday Night, but we should see
little more than increased clouds over southern Arkansas as deep
layer moisture will be rather limited with the system.

A surface frontal boundary will approach the region from the
plains by late Wednesday Night.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
The long term period will begin w/ a rather perturbed upper-lvl
flow pattern consisting of ridging over the Pac-N/W, and a
progressive upper shortwave over the Nrn Great Plains. This upper
troughing is progged to dig into the Cntrl MS river valley and
develop a large quasi-cutoff upper low. Through the day Thurs, the
ensuing sfc mass response depicts a long cold frnt, extending S/W
from the upper midwest into the Ozarks of MO/AR. Upper forcing
will drive this cold frnt quickly through the fcst area Thurs
afternoon/evening, however a lack of deep column moisture will
lkly inhibit any widespread PoPs from unfolding, w/Nrn AR keeping
some Chc PoPs. Following the FROPA, a robust sfc pres grad will
result in Wrly winds of 15-20 kts over much of the state on Fri,
w/overnight wind chill values dipping into the teens on Fri
night, particularly over Nrn AR.

Sat...the upper quasi-cutoff low will begin to pivot and lift
towards the N/E, and w/ Wrn US ridging remaining strong, N/Wrly flow
along the inflection point of the upper mean flow will set up a
pattern of multiple shortwaves traversing through the mean flow
through the end of the period. Despite a plethora of synoptic scale
forcing for ascent, overall coverage and magnitude of Chc PoPs
remains low through the weekend and into the new work week due to no
significant moisture return over the region.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
329 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
329 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some patchy slick spots may be seen overnight in areas that saw
accumulating snowfall as any melting refreezes. This...along with
some freezing fog...could create some hazardous driving conditions
into the morning...mainly across southern Arkansas.

Otherwise...the threat for hazardous weather will be low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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