River Flood Advisory 14, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight as multiple waves of
TSRA move into the area and over terminals. Expecting cigs to
lower in a 06-09Z window for most terminals with the first wave of
TSRA around 08-12Z, although timing may vary. While iso TS will
linger north, expecting mainly low stratus and -RA/BR through the
end of the period at HRO/BPK. Central/southern terminals will see
an additional wave of TSRA in the 15-18Z time frame, but again,
timing may vary. TSRA with severe gusts >50 kts and large hail
will be possible outside northern terminals. As a strong boundary
sweeps through late in the period, winds will become
west/northwest and gusty as RA/TSRA end west-to-east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 231 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021)

Short term...Tonight through Friday

A beautiful spring day was hopefully enjoyed Wednesday as very
unsettled conditions are poised to return starting tonight and
continuing through Thursday. Overall not a lot of value added
changes will be forthcoming this afternoon with rain expected and
severe weather possible. The solution this afternoon is primarily
derived on a blend of the latest CAM guidance.

Highly amplified and progressive pattern remains in place at this time
with a strong system clearly seen on satellite imagery over the four
corners/desert southwest. Latest surface analysis places a warm front
over central Texas which will be moving into and through southern
Arkansas tonight. Aforementioned western system will kick out into
the plains tonight placing the region in a pronounced south to
southwest flow resulting in a warm air and moisture advection
pattern.

Models continue to suggest thunderstorms developing along and north
of this boundary late this evening and through the overnight hours.
Increasing jet dynamics and low level shear will provide an
opportunity for large hail as the best instability looks to be
elevated in nature. There is enough wind energy with this system
that if the stronger storms can get surface based, strong gusty
winds are a definite possibility.

Come Thursday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
as the surface low with this system tracks SW to NE across the state
in the continuing WAA pattern. Coverage will begin to diminish
somewhat late Thursday morning but there will be an ongoing chance
of precipitation. This is where the forecast gets a little tricky.

CAM guidance continues to suggest a corridor of high SBCAPE in an
area of higher dewpoints mainly over the south and eastern parts of
the state. Guidance continues to develop a rapidly moving line of
convection along the attendant cold front early Thursday afternoon.
Any tornado threat would likely be over in the moist sector over the
south and east with more of a wind/hail threat elsewhere.

Much like the previous event, robust nocturnal convection may reduce
the potential of severe weather with this second round. Basically
the threat of severe weather Thursday afternoon will be likely tied
into precip coverage tonight.

Precipitation should be exiting the state by late Thursday afternoon
with high pressure moving in quickly behind it. Skies will clear by
Friday morning with cooler air in the wake of the departing system.
Dry conditions will round out the period.

LONG TERM...Friday Night through Wednesday

H500 swrly flow will be in place over the state at the start of the
period ahead of troughing across the west. Initially, dry conditions
will be observed but as a sfc cold front moves into the area from
the NW and the lead H500 trough approaches, precip is expected to
develop. Based on the timing of the front and upper trough, much of
the precip will be confined to the southeast half of the state.

The cold front will move across the state on Sunday with rain
briefly coming to an end. While temperatures are expected to be well
above average on Saturday, cooler readings will be in place Sun-Mon.

Left behind in the H500 flow, a cutoff low looks to approach from
the west by early next week which will help to increase precip
chances once again. Moisture return and instability still appear
limited, keeping severe wx chances low at this time.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...COOPER

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
315 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
315 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE... This afternoon and tonight

A storm system is forecast to move into the region late tonight
bringing widespread, locally heavy rain to the area. Some storms
may become strong to severe with large hail the primary threat.
Locally heavy rain can not be excluded with the stronger storms
but widespread flooding is not expected as the storms will be
moving fast. Still, isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Thursday, a bout of organized severe weather will be possible during
the afternoon to late evening time frame...particularly for
eastern and southeastern Arkansas...and all severe hazards will be
possible including large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps some
tornadic activity.

Chances for widespread rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible
across the state again on Saturday as a cold front approaches the
region. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is anticipated.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

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