Flash Flood Warning 132, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1148 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

.AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 18/06Z TAFs

SHRA/TS were ongoing over N/W AR Fri evening and are expected to
gradually slide southward with a cold frnt late Fri night thru
early Sat. As the rain area moves, areas of dense fog over the
northern half of the state will mostly dissipate. Even so, low
clouds will keep MVFR/IFR conditions in the north Fri night, and
over central/southern sections on Saturday. Winds will vary out of
the S to S/E early in the PD, shifting to the N-N/W on Saturday
and becoming gusty in the wake of the cold frnt.

/232/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 755 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

What a mess today. Warm front has not lifted north as quickly as
anticipated, keeping the northern half or more of the state socked
in with low stratus and patchy dense fog. Temperatures have been
quite cool north of the boundary with 70s to near 80 degree
readings over the south.

Near the AR/MO border, rainfall continues with regional radar
imagery showing the next wave of showers/storms developing across
eastern OK in response to an approaching upper wave. Rainfall from
this morning, while not enough to produce flooding owing to dry
soils, has worked to prime soils for rainfall tonight. Concern in
flood potential has grown given the presence of anomalously high
PWAT values streaming over northwestern and northern AR (values
>1.5 in) today. As the aforementioned upper trough approaches,
coverage and intensity will tick up with the flood threat
maximized this evening into tonight as the eastern OK convection
moves in.

Severe potential remains low overall, although elevated
strong/severe hailers cannot be ruled out north of the warm front
with an isolated strong/severe storm in the warm sector across
western AR this evening. Widespread severe is not expected.

Through tonight and Saturday, the upper wave will push east and
drive a cold front through the area from the northwest. Rain and
storms will focus along the front as it passes with activity
diminishing over southeastern zones by Saturday night. Noticeably
colder air will filter in behind the front with temps falling into
the 20s and 30s by Saturday night.

Thanks to TSA/SGF/PAH for hydro collab.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

To begin, surface high pressure will be in place just N of AR in
the wake of a cold front from the short term period. On the hills
of the departing surface high/front, a new shortwave trough will
eject into the Srn Plains on Sunday. Limited moisture should
preclude any mentionable PoPs on Monday/Monday night, however
slight chance PoP will creep into Nrn La, so this trend will be
watched over the coming days.

On Tuesday and beyond, the aforementioned shortwave will slide E
with quasi-zonal flow setting up at H500. Temperatures both highs
and lows will be coldest on Sunday/Sunday night, with a slow
moderation thereafter. Temperatures should gradually warm through
Thursday, and confidence is increased with this pattern given no
significant troughs/ridges developing through mid-week. Temperatures
mid-week will feel more like climatological averages with readings
creeping into the 40s/50s for highs and 20s/30s for lows.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Lawrence-Marion-
Newton-Randolph-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White.

Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Saturday FOR Baxter-Boone-Conway-
Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Pope-Randolph-Scott-
Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.

&&

Aviation...232

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
515 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
515 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A frontal boundary will continue lifting from southern into
central and northern Arkansas tonight. North of the front,
areas of dense fog will linger this evening, and will reduce
visibilities to less than a quarter mile in places.

As the night wears on, areas of rain will develop along the front
in northern and western sections of the state. One to two inches
of rain will be possible, with locally heavier amounts. Some
flash flooding could occur.

After midnight, the rain area in the north and west will begin
shifting to the south with the front. Isolated strong storms and
localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

No hazardous weather is anticipated through the forecast period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May or May Not Be Needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/232/51/46