Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS Little Rock, AR

909 
WGUS74 KLZK 200649
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
149 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

ARC141-200659-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0118.000000T0000Z-210820T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Van Buren AR-
149 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN 
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3570 9274 3572 9264 3572 9263 3575 9262
      3578 9257 3579 9244 3579 9243 3579 9242
      3572 9242 3568 9243 3565 9248 3558 9262
      3558 9272 3565 9275

$$

232

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.AVIATION...
Updated for the 00Z terminals...

As has been the case the last few days, flight conditions will be
determined by the scope of convection over the next 24 hours. Expect
an initial (ongoing) round of showers/storms, with the most widespread
coverage in the central and southern sites. Though central/southern
storms should diminish later tonight, additional showers/storms
will develop late tonight/early Friday as a mid-level wave moves
into western Arkansas, and there will likely be outflow boundaries
which will help touch off additional convection as daytime
heating kicks in. Wind direction will continue to be erratic, with
sustained speeds around six knots or less.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 255 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

Mid lvl impulse was noted ovr Wrn AR this aftn, with assocd
sctd convection confined to the northern and eastern part of the
FA. The leading edge of another area of SHRA/TSRA was working into
far Swrn AR. Mid aftn temps ranged fm the mid/upper 70s in the rain
cooled areas, with 80s to arnd 90 common elsewhere.

The bulk of the ongoing convection is expected to diminish this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Have gone ahead and placed
highest PoPs in the near term acrs the SW part of the FA, based on
radar and latest hi-res model data output.

Unsettled wx conds are expected to cont the next few days, although
rain chcs wl be diminishing as high pres aloft sloly blds back into
the region fm the south. As a result, the focus for rain chcs wl
sloly shift to the north and east of AR heading into the weekend.

Kept PoPs generally in the chc category as convective trends are
tough to determine in this pattern. For the most part, fcst aftn
head indices wl rmn below advy criteria. However, looks like
headline criteria may need to be considered beyond this fcst PD.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

The period begins with a ridge of high pressure across the Southern
Plains and upper level troughs across the NW and NE CONUS. Over the
period, SWTs will move eastward across the northern half of the
CONUS as the upper level ridge persists across the Southern Plains.

Chance PoPs for much of the north and east portions of the state
Sunday afternoon with a nearby surface boundary and upper SWT to the
north. Otherwise, high pressure will limit convection through much
of the period. Slight chance to chance PoPs return mid next week
with another approaching cold front from the NW.

Persistent high pressure and southerly flow will allow for a return
to above average high and low temperatures through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
356 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-200900-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
356 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog will be seen across the forecast area through Thursday
morning and may result in hazardous driving conditions where fog
is denser in nature. Otherwise, a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected around the state Thursday, with locally
heavy rainfall, some small hail and gusty winds being the primary
hazards. A few storms may become strong or briefly severe,
particularly later in the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the end
of the week. Some isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible,
however widespread severe weather is not expected. Once the chances
for thunderstorms come to an end, it will bring dangerous heat to
the state for the start of next week. This will result in heat index
values over 100.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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