Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Little Rock, AR

461 
WGUS74 KLZK 171455
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
955 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

ARC113-171700-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.W.0117.000000T0000Z-210817T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Polk AR-
955 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...

At 955 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Wickes, Grannis, Vandervoort, Cossatot River State Park, Hatton 
  and Bogg Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 9446 3438 9422 3436 9422 3435 9425
      3427 9426 3427 9424 3419 9424 3419 9447

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

62

606 
WGUS74 KLZK 171655
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1155 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

ARC113-171705-
/O.EXP.KLZK.FF.W.0117.000000T0000Z-210817T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Polk AR-
1155 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT TODAY FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3442 9446 3438 9422 3436 9422 3435 9425
      3427 9426 3427 9424 3419 9424 3419 9447

$$

62

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expecting an increase in SHRA/TSRA by 17/18-21Z with PROB30
groups for ADF/HOT/PBF/LLQ. VCTS cannot be ruled out elsewhere,
although confidence is low. VFR will prevail outside convection
with SCT/BKN mid/high clouds, gradually lowering over southern
terminals beyond 18/06-09Z. MVFR to IFR cigs will be possible
there late in the period. Additional SHRA/TSRA likely near and
after 18/12Z. Winds remain NE/E with speeds under 10 kts, although
higher speeds/gusts possible near TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 404 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Mosaic radar imagery shows an area of showers and storms
developing over E OK and W AR as of 09Z this morning. Confluent
low-level flow, particularly at 850 mb, as well as modest elevated
instability (MUCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg) will support
continued activity over far western sections through the morning.
By afternoon, a lingering mid/upper trough and diurnally-driven
instability will support isolated to scattered activity over
roughly the southwestern half of the area with the highest PoP
over southwestern AR.

Broad deep-layer moisture advection will continue to increase
through the period as a stronger trough moves inland over the
PacNW and the upper pattern amplifies. As such, anticipating
coverage of rain/storms will expand over time and in particular by
Wednesday when activity will be widespread. PWAT values exceeding
2 inches are likely so rain may be very heavy at times and
localized flooding will be possible. Severe weather remains
unlikely, although the usual few instances of a damaging wind gust
will be possible.

With rain and cloud cover becoming more abundant, highs will fall
from near average today (upper 80s and low 90s) to several
degrees below average by Wednesday (upper 70s to upper 80s).
Overnight lows will remain near seasonal averages.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday Night

Long term starts with a trough located over the NW CONUS and a
somewhat weaker trough across the northeast with some weak ridging
between the two troughs. At the surface, Grace will be safely
passing well to the south of Arkansas along the southern Gulf of
Mexico with continued unsettled weather across the state. Rain
chances will remain in the forecast on Thursday, with somewhat
better chances for dry weather on Friday. By Saturday a cold front
will approach the state and bring another round of rain chances to
the state. This front will have a difficult time making it into the
state and stall across northern Arkansas before lifting back to the
north. By the end of the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build in over Arkansas and bring an end to rain chances and bring a
return of very warm temperatures to the state for the start of next
week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...DTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
407 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
407 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms will increase today and tonight, mainly over
the southwestern half of the area. Isolated strong storms are
possible and heavy rain may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be seen on Thursday
through the end of the week with some isolated stronger
thunderstorms possible. However at this time, widespread severe
weather is not expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC/65