Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Little Rock, AR

801 
WGUS74 KLZK 152028
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

ARC011-013-152038-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0116.000000T0000Z-210815T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bradley AR-Calhoun AR-
328 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BRADLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN 
CALHOUN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3340 9260 3359 9234 3358 9198 3353 9198
      3345 9202 3339 9198 3330 9198 3324 9207
      3321 9222 3322 9221 3323 9223 3325 9222
      3328 9230 3326 9232 3330 9236 3327 9244
      3329 9247 3332 9246 3332 9252 3336 9253

$$

67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.AVIATION...
A frontal boundary will remain in central Arkansas through the
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening near and south of the front. Patchy fog will
be possible in the morning with MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 651 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021)
UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

-RA invof central/southern terminals will linger for at least a
 few hours with SCT TSRA redeveloping this afternoon. Included
 PROB30 for now due to low confidence in placement/timing,
 although VFR conditions will be likely outside TS. Activity
 gradually diminishes after 16/02Z with cigs/vis lowering late in
 the period, namely at LLQ/PBF/ADF and perhaps HOT/LIT as well.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 413 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021)

Today through Saturday Night...

An interesting convective scenario is underway this morning as a
modest outflow boundary, coupled with a quasi-stationary front
draped over central AR, continues forcing convection over central
and western sections. Elsewhere across southern AR, there have
been attempts at initiation, but the presence of capping and
distance from the aforementioned boundaries has remained less
supportive for new cells.

This will likely change through the day as MUCAPE values increase
into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range along and south of the front.
PWAT values will remain slightly above seasonal norms (some areas
seeing values of 2+ inches) with heavy rain likely in storms.
Meager steering flow aloft will keep storm motions sluggish and
prone to mesoscale/cold pool influences. All this to say, wouldn't
be surprised to see a few more instances of localized flooding
again today. Aside from a few isolated damaging wind gusts from
collapsing storms, severe weather is unlikely.

A lead vort max embedded within mid/upper troughing over the
Midwest and southern Plains will begin lifting northeast
overnight, from southern MO to the Great Lakes by Monday morning.
Not overly excited this will push the front through tonight, but
do expect the boundary to reorient over southern and eastern
sections by Monday. Slightly drier air on the north side of the
front and decreasing instability will keep most rain/storms over
far southern and eastern AR by Monday afternoon. Lingering
clusters of storms will remain possible during the overnight hours
as well.

The rest of the upcoming workweek looks even more interesting
from a weather standpoint as a large trough moves in across the
northwestern CONUS and pushes a front our way, all while tropical
cyclone Grace moves towards the Gulf. Between these features, the
subtropical ridge is progged to build west over the southern CONUS
and northern Gulf. Understandably, uncertainty is high attm
regarding how any one, let alone all three, of these features
will evolve/interact in the coming week. Stay tuned.

Despite that uncertainty, deep moisture flux will be strong on the
west side of the building ridge with a large plume of very
moisture rich air progged to overspread the state by mid-week.
PWAT values of 2.5+ inches and diurnally-driven instability will
be favorable for more widespread rain, some heavy, from Wednesday
through the end of the forecast period.

Concerning temperatures... there will be a gradual warming trend
over the next seven days, mainly due to the building ridge,
although cloud cover and rain could result in slightly lower
values than presently forecast. Highs will generally range from
the mid-80s to low-90s, with lows in the 60s and 70s each night.
Muggy conditions, especially overnight, become more commonplace by
mid/late week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
424 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
424 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms will be most likely over the southern half of
Arkansas through tonight. Heavy rain and localized flooding are
the main concerns, with a few instances of damaging wind possible.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

While isolated to scattered showers will remain possible over
southern and eastern sections through early week, rain will
become more widespread by mid- week and beyond as an active
weather pattern sets up across the area. Heavy rain and flooding
will remain possible.

In addition, the tropics bear watching as Grace moves towards the
Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

DTC