Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.UPDATE/AVIATION...
Forecasts have been updated to better reflect current trends.
Lower dewpoints will continue to move in from the northeast as a
frontal boundary settles near southern Arkansas. Expect warm
temperatures to continue, but conditions over the north and
central behind the boundary won't feel as disgusting. Could see
some isolated storms near the Delta Region this afternoon/early
evening, but little if anything elsewhere.

Aviation-wise, for the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will be prevalent.
Depending on where the front ends up stalling, it wouldn't
surprise me to see some temporary mvfr fog or vcfg, specifically
down at LLQ in the overnight/early morning hours Monday. Isolated
TSRA could occur at LLQ, but at this time, probability/coverage is
too low for my liking for it to be included in the fcst.

One last thing...a bit of a maintenance note here...the dewpoint
sensor at ADF is not representative. We've contacted the FAA for
maintenance. In the mean time, any amendments at ADF will be
limited to sky condition only at least through this forecast
cycle.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021)
AVIATION...
Surface high pressure will build into the area from the north and
will bring drier air with it. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the south in the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 416 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
The upper level high pressure system centered over west Texas
continues to expand. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft
for Arkansas through Monday night.

A cold front has stalled across northern Arkansas and isolated
thunderstorms developed early this morning near this front. The
storms are dissipating. Northerly flow will bring drier air into the
state today and tonight. This is going to limit thunderstorm
development and they will be isolated at best in the southeast this
afternoon. Southern sections will have heat indices of 100 to 105
degrees today but drier air will bring lower heat indices Monday.

Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s and in the mid to
upper 60s Monday night.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Quiet weather is anticipated through much of the period. The upper
level pattern will initialize with robust ridging over the Srn
Rockies and a series of weaker troughs traversing the OH River
Valley region. Between systems, NWrly flow will ensue through much
of the upcoming work week. Late in the period, the aforementioned
ridge is progged to relax and retrograde, allowing the resultant
flow to flatten a bit, and allow a more substantial trough to swing
through the region by the weekend.

Until then, surface high pressure will remain situated to the N
providing light Nrly winds to AR. This will result in lower dew
points, albeit mid 60s to lower 70s, compared to the previous day or
two tastes of mid/upper 70s dew points. Temperatures may cool a
degree or two as well, however numbers will remain in the upper 80s
N to the lower 90s across Srn AR. Despite little cooling behind weak
front/fronts, lower moisture values will be most noticeable and
likewise reflected in lower afternoon heat index values. Expecting
heat index values to remain near or below the century mark.
Overnight lows will also be slightly cooler with readings in the 60s
and 70s.

Moisture will begin to increase Thursday and Friday as surface winds
switch to the S/SW. In addition to increasing tropospheric moisture,
temperatures will increase in tandem. Across the plains, a surface
boundary is expected to develop and move towards the region. PoPs
will begin to increase along and ahead of the boundary when
introduced to a moistening and destabilizing air mass. At this point
PoPs remain low but will likely increase as we approach the weekend.
In the mean time, several drier days should aid in getting rid of
some of our excess ground moisture from heavy rains the first two
weeks of June.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
424 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
424 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon. While organized severe weather is not expected, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall will accompany some of the stronger
storms.

With the ground over saturated due to the heavy rains this past
week, it will not take much runoff from additional rainfall to
quickly produce localized flash flooding. Please be sure to heed
local emergency management guidance on road closures due to high
water, and avoid flooded areas if possible.

Afternoon highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to mid
90s. The combination of these readings, along with high humidity
values, will result in afternoon heat index values ranging from
100 to 105 degrees in the south. If planning to be outside for
any length of time today, take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

A weather pattern more typical of summer will prevail next week as a
large upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the nations mid-
section. Hot and humid conditions will linger and chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be very limited through the
period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

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