Special Marine Warning 331, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
228 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move offshore this evening. High
pressure will follow for much of next week. Another cold front
may move through toward the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong cold front was located near the I-95 corridor as of mid
afternoon. A thin band of heavy (convective) showers and an
abrupt wind shift from S/SW to W/NW marks this boundary.

Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are most likely near and just
behind the front through early this evening, though a few higher
gusts even to near severe thresholds (58 mph) remain possible
with the convective band as it nears and eventually crosses the
Chesapeake Bay through about 6pm. A few gusts to near 50 mph
can't be ruled out behind the front over the higher elevations
as well, mainly above 3000 feet.

Temperatures will fall sharply through the remainder of today
and tonight, tumbling to levels more akin to autumn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build toward the region through the second
half of the weekend and into the first part of next week. Mainly
dry weather is forecast, though an upslope shower or two is
possible along and west of the Allegheny Front through Sunday
evening in the wake of the departing front. Clouds will likely
bank against the western slopes of the Alleghenies with diurnal
cumulus east of the mountains beneath/behind the upper trough.
Gusty northwesterly winds should prevail with gusts of 25 to 30
mph peaking during the afternoon hours each day.

Temperatures will hover around mid-October norms: highs in the
60s with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees (5-10 degrees
cooler for the higher elevations).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heights will rise as surface ridging builds across the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will promote dry conditions with a
warming trend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s
except for the higher terrain where temperatures will remain in the
60s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s to near 50 along the
Chesapeake Bay, with some 30s possible in the elevated valleys of
the Allegheny Mountains.

By Thursday or Friday (depending on the preference of model
guidance), the next upper-level trough and cold front will
likely move through the region bringing the opportunity for
rain showers. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front
into next weekend as upper-level troughing may linger overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief period of MVFR/IFR is expected through late afternoon as
showers cross the region along a strong cold front. Winds are in
the process of shifting to the northwest and will likely gust up
to around 30 knots or so through early this evening. A few
isolated higher gusts are possible, especially for the metro
terminals. The wind likely subsides a bit during the overnight
hours, but 25 knot gusts or so are likely during the afternoon
hours Sunday and Monday as VFR prevails.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with lighter
NW winds becoming S.

&&

.MARINE...
An abrupt wind shift to the northwest is imminent as a strong
cold front crosses. Brief gusts to gale force are likely through
late afternoon. Otherwise, 25 to 30 knot gusts out of the
northwest should persist much of the time into early next week
before gradually subsiding as high pressure builds in, though
winds likely diminish some during the overnight hours over the
smaller waterways.

Winds should continue to decrease Tuesday and remain below SCA
criteria Wednesday while shifting to the south.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will remain 1.5-2 feet above normal with minor flooding
likely especially along vulnerable shoreline into this evening.
A strong cold front will turn winds northwesterly causing water
levels to decline sharply tonight, with near blow out tides
possible during the second half of the weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ016-018.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-171900-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A strong cold front is moving through the region. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may produce a few instances of wind damage
on land, and brief gale force wind gusts over the waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-171900-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated wind damage is possible across the ridgetops due to gusty
winds behind a strong cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-171900-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated wind damage is possible across the ridgetops due to gusty
winds behind a strong cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DHOF

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