Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong cold front will pass through the area late this
afternoon and early this evening. Severe thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the cold front. High pressure will return
Monday before moving offshore Tuesday. Low pressure and its
associated cold front will likely impact the area Wednesday
before surface high and an upper-level trough build overhead for
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Still a wait and see situation on whether will have deep
convection develop ahead of a strong cold front now crossing the
Appalachian Mountains. Latest satellite imagery shows holes in
the cloud cover in northern VA and central MD, but significant
convective inhibition still remains given presence of stable
wave clouds. A recently arrived Suomi-NPP 1735Z NUCAPS sounding
near Fredericksburg confirms this with about 101 J/kg of CINH.
NUCAPS soundings from a NOAA-20 pass around 1827Z will give a
better idea on potential convective evolution next several
hours. Regardless, looks like we'll see a shallow narrow
rainband accompany the front late this afternoon (21Z- 23Z) with
gusty winds with the strongest winds in the post- frontal
environment (around 20Z in the mtns, 21Z- 23Z Rt 15 corridor)
and exiting the bay after 23Z. Looks like freq gusts 35-40 kt
will be common through this evening, before winds begin to
gradually abate after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Cooler and breezy Monday under building high pressure. Cold at
night under clear skies and very dry air mass. Next system will
bring showers to the area late Tue night through the day
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A strengthening upper-level shortwave will approach from the west
during the day on Wednesday, driving a strong cold front towards the
region. Very warm and moist air will stream into the region ahead of
this front in southerly flow. Expect showers and clouds for much of
the day as this front approaches. Then, low pressure looks to
develop along the front somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region. This
could lead to some heavier elements nearby, especially amid 1.5"+
PWATs. This could perhaps lead to some flooding issues, particularly
in our southern zones. Thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the
cold front, expect highs to be well into the 60s, even amid all of
the clouds and showers.

The front will rapidly drop temperatures Wednesday night into the
30s and low 40s. Over the higher elevations, do expect to see a
changeover to snow Wednesday night, with some minor accumulations
possible.

Strong Arctic high pressure mvoes towards the region slowly
on Thursday and Friday while the upper trough also slowly moves
across the region. This will lead to 2 very chilly days, with highs
well below average (only reaching the mid 40s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A broken line of showers will accompany a strong cold front in
the 21Z-23Z time frame with gusty west winds. Strongest gusts
will occur in the post-frontal environment with freq gusts
35-40kt through this evening, then gradually diminishing
overnight through Monday.

Sub-VFR conditions expected on Wednesday as a strong cold front
brings showers to the region. Gusty winds ahead of the front out of
the southwest will turn gustier and out of the west Wednesday night
into Thursday. However, VFR conditions are expected to return during
that time and continue for the next several days afterward.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale conditions are expected behind a frontal passage early
this evening and Small Craft conditions through tomorrow.

Small Craft Advisories are possible on Wednesday before
becoming likely on Wednesday night and Thursday as a strong cold
front pushes through the region. Winds could even potentially
approach Gale Force Wednesday night and especially Thursday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ001-003-004-501-502.
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ507-508.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     VAZ052>054-506.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ025>031-040-501-
     503>505.
WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL

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