Severe Thunderstorm Warning 439, NWS Baltimore/Washington

947 
WWUS51 KLWX 252001
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

VAC540-252010-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-210825T2030Z/
City of Charlottesville VA-
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved away 
from the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3799 7846 3802 7846 3803 7845 3803 7846
      3805 7845 3805 7846 3812 7847 3813 7845
      3815 7836 3800 7831 3795 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 202DEG 2KT 3804 7841 

$$

VAC003-252030-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-210825T2030Z/
Albemarle VA-
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located east of 
Charlottesville, and is drifting northward.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Charlottesville, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Boyd Tavern, Monticello,
Keswick, Stony Point, Carrsbrook and Shadwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 7846 3802 7846 3803 7845 3803 7846
      3805 7845 3805 7846 3812 7847 3813 7845
      3815 7836 3800 7831 3795 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 202DEG 2KT 3804 7841 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DHOF

139 
WWUS51 KLWX 252012
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
412 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

VAC003-252030-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-210825T2030Z/
Albemarle VA-
412 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

At 412 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located northeast of 
Charlottesville, and is drifting northeastward.

HAZARD...65 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Charlottesville, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Boyd Tavern, Keswick, Stony
Point, Carrsbrook and Shadwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 7845 3812 7847 3813 7845 3815 7836
      3800 7831 3795 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 188DEG 3KT 3806 7839 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DHOF

316 
WWUS51 KLWX 252030
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
430 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

VAC003-252039-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-210825T2030Z/
Albemarle VA-
430 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning is weakening below severe 
limits, and is exiting the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Sterling Virginia.

LAT...LON 3804 7845 3812 7847 3813 7845 3815 7836
      3800 7831 3795 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 270DEG 2KT 3803 7833 

$$

DHOF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain situated near our region through the
end of the week. A front will drop down into the region from the
Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday and stall nearby through
early next week. Another front may impact our region midway
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Skies are currently partly sunny across most of the region this
afternoon. Afternoon temps are expected to peak in the lower 90s
with heat indexes near 100. Showers along with isolated
thunderstorms have started to form along the western half of the
Blue Ridge Mtns with storms mainly pulsing up for 30 to 40 mins at a
time. Currently, rain rates are about one to one and quarter inches
per hour with a few areas near Devils knob reporting close to an
inch of precipitation in about 40 mins.

A weak surface tough will combine with decent CAPE values above 2000
to continue developing showers and thunderstorms along and west of
the Blue Ridge Mtns this afternoon. CAMs and the HREF are focusing
on the valley between the Allegheny front and the Blue Ridge with
slight trend eastward with storms with 12Z guidance. Some CAMS have
decaying showers and thunderstorms moving east of the Blue Ridge
late this afternoon and into early this evening and impacting parts
of the I-95 corridor. Overall it seems the main strong to SVR impact
will be west of the Blue Ridge with the main hazard being damaging
winds as DCAPE will be above 1000 for most of the region. The low
storm movement could lead to an isolated flood threat especially
over our low FFG regions. The threat for shower and thunderstorms
should start to diminish after sundown as diurnal cuts off daytime
mixing. A showers may continue after daybreak east of the Blue
Ridge. Overnight lows will remain mild in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A surface trough will remain situated over our region on Thursday
with broad ridging to the north and a Bermuda high to the south of
our region. The position of the trough seems to be more southwest to
northeast on Thursday which become the focus for shower and
thunderstorms to form. Dewpoints will increase tomorrow due to
continued warm air advection from the high pressure to the south of
our region. Dewpoints increasing into the low to mid 70s will allow
CAPE to increase above 2000 once again with a continued light mean
flow. Showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat during the
afternoon period with the main focus west of the Blue Ridge.

Storms will initially form off of the terrain and then feed off of
the generous amounts of CAPE in place over our region. Shear will be
lacking but pulse strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
once again with damaging winds and isolated flooding being the main
hazards. Afternoon temperatures will have similar highs in the low
to mid 90s but higher dewpoints may lead to heat indices reaching
potentially up to 100/105 threshold which may require a heat
advisory for portions of our region on Thursday.  Overnight lows
will continue to be in the mid 70s Thursday evening.

The best chance for widespread thunderstorms over the next three
days will likely occur on Friday as an approaching front becomes the
focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. There
remains some uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage and
threat could be pushed to the weekend if the front moves through
slower. Ahead of the boundary, continuing warm air advection will
lead to dewpoint temps peaking in the low to mid 70s during the
afternoon with high temps in the mid 90s. Heat Indices may approach
the 105 degree mark once again on Friday but confidence is much
lower on this threat. The rising dewpoints will lead to another day
of 2000 + CAPE with relatively weak shear.  Pulse storms possibly
driven by the approaching front could become strong to severe and
produce some locally damaging winds. At this time, the main threat
area seems to be north and west of the I-95 corridor. If the front
moves into our region earlier, the threat for widespread
thunderstorms will increase while a slower trend will mean less
coverage of storms. The pulse nature of the storms along with a slow
mean layer wind flow mean that isolated flooding could also be a
threat if a storm remains over the same area for an extended period.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms should diminish after
daybreak with only a slight chance for showers overnight and into
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A weak boundary across the region and a series of low pressure
systems will bring the chance for showers and isolated severe
thunderstorms each day Saturday through Monday. These severe
thunderstorms could also lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding considering the humidity and warmth during each day.
Temperatures will top out near 90 each afternoon.

The aforementioned boundary will get some upper level cool air
assistance and should push farther south over our southern zones or
perhaps as far south as the Virginia and North Carolina border
Monday night. The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms and
isolated flash flooding will linger and could become more widespread
during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Tuesday. High
temperatures will reach the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions generally expected over the next threat days with
winds generally out of the south. Terminals along and west of the
Blue Ridge Mtns (MRB,CHO,IAD) will have the best chance of
experiencing periods of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
through Friday. These showers and storms will have the potential to
produce brief restrictions down into the MVFR/IFR range. Strong
winds gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be possible within thunderstorms.
Afternoon Temperatures over the tarmac will be in the mid 90s with
heat indices above 100 possible.

Showers and isolated severe thunderstorms could bring conditions
down to MVFR each afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected at the terminals. The terminals that receive a good dose of
rainfall could encounter some fog at night that could in turn drop
visibility to IFR. Winds light and variable Saturday through Sunday
morning, except for higher gusts in strong to severe thunderstorms.
Winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots Sunday afternoon and
night.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain situated near our region through the end
of the week. A front will slowly approach our waters late Friday and
into this weekend. No SCA level winds are expected but brief gusts
above 20 knots will be possible with any storms that move over our
marine areas.

No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Any severe
thunderstorms that develop and move over the waters could prompt a
Special Marine Warning or two Saturday through Sunday evening. Winds
variable Saturday through Sunday midday, then southeast around 10
knots Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Tide levels are forecast to remain slightly elevated over the next
several days. Although flooding is not explicitly forecast, caution
(or near minor) stages are possible at more vulnerable tidal
locations such as DC SW Waterfront and Annapolis through the end
of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/JMG
MARINE...KLW/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-261000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging wind gusts is
possible this afternoon and evening, especially near and west of
Interstate 95.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms or instances of flash flooding are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Heat indices up to 105 degrees are possible Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this week.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-261000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms or instances of flash flooding are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, and again later
this week.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-261000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms or instances of flash flooding are
possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, and again later
this week.