Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Baltimore/Washington

317 
WWUS51 KLWX 270133
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAC047-061-153-270143-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-210727T0145Z/
Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA-Prince William VA-
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...EASTERN
CULPEPER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out ofthe warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3831 7766 3841 7729 3838 7729 3836 7724
      3841 7726 3843 7720 3817 7716 3817 7718
      3820 7722 3819 7725 3823 7725 3824 7722
      3825 7723 3825 7727 3822 7729 3824 7729
      3825 7735 3824 7738 3807 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 336DEG 14KT 3834 7716 3824 7758 

$$

MDC017-VAC099-177-179-630-270145-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-210727T0145Z/
Charles MD-Stafford VA-King George VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-
Spotsylvania VA-
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CHARLES...SOUTHERN STAFFORD...SOUTHWESTERN KING
GEORGE AND EASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
FREDERICKSBURG...

At 933 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near King George to near Spotsylvania, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, King George, Fairview Beach, Potomac Creek, Aquia
Creek, Massaponax, Spotsylvania, Falmouth, Passapatanzy, Stones
Corner, Leeland, Spring Valley, Chancellorsville, Thornburg, Lambs
Creek, White Oak, Sealston, Brookfield and Dogue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 7766 3841 7729 3838 7729 3836 7724
      3841 7726 3843 7720 3817 7716 3817 7718
      3820 7722 3819 7725 3823 7725 3824 7722
      3825 7723 3825 7727 3822 7729 3824 7729
      3825 7735 3824 7738 3807 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 336DEG 14KT 3834 7716 3824 7758 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJP

507 
WWUS51 KLWX 270142
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MDC017-VAC099-177-179-630-270152-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-210727T0145Z/
Charles MD-Stafford VA-King George VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-
Spotsylvania VA-
942 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CHARLES...
SOUTHERN STAFFORD...SOUTHWESTERN KING GEORGE AND EASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3831 7766 3841 7729 3838 7729 3836 7724
      3841 7726 3843 7720 3817 7716 3817 7718
      3820 7722 3819 7725 3823 7725 3824 7722
      3825 7723 3825 7727 3822 7729 3824 7729
      3825 7735 3824 7738 3807 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 336DEG 14KT 3831 7714 3821 7756 

$$

KJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will stall out over central Virginia into southern
Maryland through Tuesday. Another weak cold front will approach from
the north Wednesday while an upper-level disturbance passes through.
A stronger cold front will pass through late Thursday into early
Friday and high pressure will build overhead for Saturday before
moving offshore Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A cold front has dropped south through our region from PA this
afternoon and is currently located over parts central Virginia.
Storms and showers have formed along and south of the front this
afternoon with a one storm having already becoming severe. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued SVR watch 392 for large portions of
southern and central Virginia including Nelson and Albemarle
counties from our forecast area. A combination of warm and humid
conditions along and ahead of the front combined with modest CAPE
will lead a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The main
threat for strong to severe storms will be areas along and south of
I-64 but I can't rule out a few stronger storms from forming north
of the front this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a threat this evening and coverage should start to lesson
later this evening. Some  CAM's indicate that showers and storms
could reform further north over the DC metro this evening but
confidence remains low on this threat especially with a
northwesterly flow. PW's will be close to 2 inches ahead of the
front that Flash Flooding will be a concern especially down in parts
of Nelson and Augusta counties that have receive precipitation the
past few nights.

As the front progresses further north later this evening, the threat
for strong storms and flash flooding will start to diminish as drier
air slowly builds our region. Skies will become mostly clear
overnight with winds becoming light out of the south. Fog will
likely be a concern for areas down in central Virginia where
precipitation will occur this afternoon. Overnight lows will be
near to slight above normal in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will briefly build into our region on Tuesday with
light winds continuing out of the north. An upper trough north of
the Great Lakes is expected to drop south into PA. Shortwave energy
along the southern parts of the trough may produce some
isolated showers on Tuesday. I believe the threat remains
relatively for showers on Tuesday especially with a continued
northwesterly flow aloft advecting in drier air into the region. The
combination of mostly clear skies along with a light flow will
allow temps to rise up into the low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Typically
as we get temps up into the mid 90s, the heat indices will become an
issue but the lack of moisture advection will limit heat indexes to
the 90s.

An upper level ridge will build over the central US Tuesday through
Wednesday with a trough axis over the NE US. The positioning of the
upper ridge will place our region in favorable location to allow
for shortwaves to move over the ridge and drop down into our region.
These shortwaves combined with a front approaching from the north may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to form over the northern half
of our CWA especially considering that temps will be hovering in the
90s. The main limiting factor for storm development will be the lack
of good moisture in place on Wednesday. Afternoon temps be warm
once again in the low to mid 90s. A marginal risk for SVR weather
has been issued by SPC for areas along the MD/PA border for
Wednesday due to the combination of shortwaves and a front slowly
approaching from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

An upper-level trough will strengthen over New England Thursday and
Friday while the trough axis extends down through the Mid-Atlantic.
A potent upper-level disturbance and jetmax associated with the
trough will dig into New England during this time, and this will
allow for a stronger cold front to approach Thursday before passing
through Thursday night into Friday.

There will be some return flow ahead of the frontal passage which
will allow for instability to develop. At the same time, moderate
shear profiles are expected due to stronger northwest winds aloft
associated with the upper-level trough and lower heights. Steep low-
level lapse rates, increasing instability, stronger shear and
forcing from the cold front suggests that thunderstorms are
possible, and some storms may be severe. The best chance for severe
appears to be Thursday afternoon and evening, but timing could shift
depending on exactly when the cold front passes through.

The cold front will continue to push to the south for Friday into
Friday night. However, the boundary could get hung up across our
extreme southern zones for a period Friday, so a shower or
thunderstorm is possible across those areas, but for most areas it
will turn out less humid and dry.

High pressure will build overhead Friday night and Saturday,
bringing dry and cooler conditions along with lower humidity. The
high will move offshore for Sunday and warmer air will return.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will mainly impact the CHO terminal this
afternoon and evening causing possible MVFR to IFR restrictions.
Storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and large hail
through this evening for CHO terminal. Showers or thunderstorms
can't be ruled out for the DC metro terminals this evening but
confidence remains low. VFR conditions should return Tuesday and
Wednesday for all terminals but fog will be possible for the CHO
terminal late this evening and into Tuesday morning.

A cold front will pass through late Thursday into early Friday. A
few thunderstorms are possible ahead of the boundary, especially
Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms may become severe, with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

The boundary will push to the south for Friday, but it may get hung
up close to KCHO. An isolated storm near KCHO is possible, but other
areas should be dry with northwest winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories are not expected through Wednesday but
showers and thunderstorms may impact our southern bay waters this
evening.

A cold front will approach the waters Thursday before
passing through Thursday night into Friday. Winds may approach SCA
criteria ahead of the front late Thursday into Thursday night (from
southerly winds), and again behind the front late Thursday night and
Friday (from northwest winds).

A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, and
some may produce gusty winds. An isolated t-storm near the extreme
southern portion of the waters around Tangier Island cannot be
completely ruled out Friday afternoon, but most places will be dry.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/JMG
MARINE...BJL/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
643 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-271000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
643 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible
through mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-271000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
643 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible
through mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-271000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
643 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
805 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE CATHOLIC UNIVERSIT 38.94N  76.99W
07/26/2021                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON THE 1300 BLOCK OF WEBSTER STREET
            NE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104976

ADM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
811 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ADAMS MORGAN       38.91N  77.03W
07/26/2021                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 15TH STREET NW AND
            SOUTH STREET NW

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104977

ADM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
817 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N THE WHITE HOUSE     38.91N  77.04W
07/26/2021                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 100 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE DISTRICT OF
            COLUMBIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104978

ADM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WASHINGTON          38.90N  77.00W
07/26/2021                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON OCCUPIED VEHICLE ON THE 1100 BLOCK OF 5TH
            STREET NE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104979

ADM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ROSE HILL         38.77N  77.10W
07/26/2021                   FAIRFAX            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STONEBRIDGE RD AND
            STONEBRIDGE CT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104980

LFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW MOUNT VERNON      38.73N  77.11W
07/26/2021                   FAIRFAX            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104981

LFR