Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Baltimore/Washington

535 
WWUS51 KLWX 142032
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
432 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

VAC047-061-137-177-179-630-142045-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-210714T2045Z/
Stafford VA-Orange VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-Fauquier VA-
Culpeper VA-Spotsylvania VA-
432 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD...NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN
FAUQUIER...EASTERN CULPEPER AND NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES
AND THE NORTHERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...

At 432 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Fredericksburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Fredericksburg, Falmouth, Leeland, Roseville,
Garrisonville, Spring Valley, Ramoth, Heflin, Aquia, Storck, Holly
Corner, Dunavant, Glendie, Hartwood and Brookfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 7772 3845 7765 3850 7757 3849 7737
      3830 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 277DEG 22KT 3841 7758 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJL

915 
WWUS51 KLWX 142040
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
440 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

VAC047-061-137-177-179-630-142050-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-210714T2045Z/
Stafford VA-Orange VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-Fauquier VA-
Culpeper VA-Spotsylvania VA-
440 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD...
NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER...EASTERN CULPEPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN CITY OF
FREDERICKSBURG WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3835 7772 3845 7765 3850 7757 3849 7737
      3830 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 277DEG 22KT 3841 7755 

$$

CJL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the area this
evening. Weak high pressure will settle across the region
Thursday before shifting to our south on Friday. A cold front
will slowly approach the area this weekend, potentially
stalling nearby early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough continues to shift eastward as the Bermuda
high offshore weakens slightly as it becomes more concentrated
off the Carolinas. Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing along and east of the Blue Ridge.
These will continue to increase in frequency and intensity over
the next few hours. Overall atmospheric conditions haven't
chanced much. Except MUCAPE has increased slightly to 1500-2000
J/Kg mainly east of I-81 where SPC has highlighted a marginal
risk for severe storms. Shear continues to range between 20-30
kts while mid level lapse rates remain poor at around 5-6C.
Therefore, still expecting the worse of the convective activity
to remain mainly inside I-81 through early this evening. These storms
do have the potential to be severe, where wind damage is the
primary threat given DCAPE values near 1000 J/Kg.

Any remnant shower activity should cease by late evening as
overnight lows bottom out in the low 70s for areas mainly east
of I-95 and mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will continue to swing through the area
Thursday morning. Thereafter, H5 ridging associated with the
Bermuda high banked off the Carolinas will restrengthen over
the remainder of the day into Friday. As a result, heat and
humidity will continue during this time. Conditions should
remain fairly dry Thursday as heights rise. Better conditions
for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday given the
unstable atmosphere, coupled with weak shortwave energy
traversing across the ridge axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A slow moving front is forecast to drop down into our region
Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of the front, a warm and moist
environment will lead to formation of showers and thunderstorms.
Another warm and humid day is expected on Saturday with afternoon
temps rising once again up into the low to mid 90s. The slow nature
of the frontal passage along with a weak flow will lead to an
increased threat for flooding on Saturday. Decent CAPE values will
likely lead to a pulse thunderstorm threat on Saturday that will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong winds. The big flood
threat will likely occur on Sunday when the front is forecast to
drop through our region. The weak nature of the upper trough will
mean the front will be slow to exit our region. The stalling nature
of front boundary combined with the high PW's will lead to another
threat for flooding on Sunday. The threat for flooding looks higher
at this time on Sunday as the front will become the focus for
continue shower and thunderstorm development. We will need to
monitor model trends to determine where the front will end up
stalling which will determine the highest threat area for flooding.

The front is forecast to remain stalled near our region through
Monday. Flooding will continue to be a concern into early next week
but the front may sink far enough south on Monday to limit the
threat area. Cooler and drier conditions should build into our
region on Monday as our region becomes positioned on the cooler side
of the trough. A weak upper trough should finally push the front
southward away from our region on Tuesday. Showers will continue to
be possible on Tuesday as the upper trough access moves overhead but
the lack of deep moisture due to a NW flow may limit shower coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through this
evening under a WSW flow. However, with the expected
development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across
the terminals, could see brief reductions in CIG/VSBYs. Patchy
fog develops overnight which also may reduce VSBYs through early
Thursday morning, with the best potential being over CHO and
MRB. Weak high pressure and southerly winds return for the
remainder of the week as conditions remain mostly VFR.

VFR conditions to start Saturday but increasing showers and
thunderstorms will likely lead to subVFR conditions Saturday
afternoon through Sunday. Winds will remain light out of the south
on Saturday but will slowly become northwesterly by Monday. SubVFR
conditions may continue into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across
portions of the waters late this afternoon through early this
evening which may prompt the issuance of SMWs. For the remainder
of the week, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected for most of the
waters. However, could see the potential for additional SCAs for
the lower bay as southerly channeling strengthens. SubSCA
conditions mainly expected this weekend except for within strong
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSS
NEAR TERM...MSS
SHORT TERM...MSS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...MSS/JMG
MARINE...MSS/JMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
528 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-150930-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
528 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat indices of 105 degrees are possible Saturday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible Saturday.

Locally heavy rain with isolated incidents of flooding is possible
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-150930-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
528 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat indices of 100 to 105 are possible Saturday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible Saturday.

Locally heavy rain with isolated incidents of flooding is possible
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-150930-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
528 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE CRIGLERSVILLE     38.45N  78.29W
07/14/2021                   MADISON            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 231 AT ROUTE 670.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104777

BKF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE WOLFTOWN           38.32N  78.32W
07/14/2021                   MADISON            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN THE 3000 BLOCK OF SHELBY ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104778

BKF