Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Baltimore/Washington

162 
WWUS51 KLWX 041722
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAC137-177-630-041800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-210604T1800Z/
Orange VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-Spotsylvania VA-
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE
SOUTHERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...

At 122 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northwest
of Spotsylvania, or 16 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Massaponax, Spotsylvania, Mine Run, Parker, Locust
Grove, Snell, Alsop, Gold Dale, Chancellorsville, Logan, Post Oak and
Cookstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 7790 3834 7783 3832 7766 3831 7753
      3830 7746 3809 7754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 304DEG 18KT 3827 7778 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RCM

667 
WWUS51 KLWX 041735
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
135 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAC137-630-041745-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-210604T1800Z/
Orange VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-
135 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE  AND THE
SOUTHERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3822 7775 3829 7773 3829 7765 3827 7754
      3826 7747 3815 7752 3812 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 286DEG 16KT 3825 7771 

$$

VAC177-041800-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-210604T1800Z/
Spotsylvania VA-
135 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

At 135 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Spotsylvania, or 12 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Massaponax, Spotsylvania and Alsop. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 7775 3829 7773 3829 7765 3827 7754
      3826 7747 3815 7752 3812 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 286DEG 16KT 3825 7771 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RCM

443 
WWUS51 KLWX 041746
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
146 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAC177-041756-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-210604T1800Z/
Spotsylvania VA-
146 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3822 7775 3829 7773 3829 7765 3827 7754
      3826 7747 3815 7752 3812 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 286DEG 16KT 3824 7765 

$$

RCM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
945 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will cross the area today. Expansive
high pressure off the southeast coast will dominate the weather
for this weekend through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:45 AM UPDATE: A few showers currently rolling across eastern
WV into northern MD. Additionally a lingering heavy shower or
two over southeastern MD into the Chesapeake Bay. Once those
move out, should be mostly dry before the potential thunderstorm
activity later this afternoon, which is outlined in further
detail below in the previous discussion. Additionally, any fog
that was around seems to have dissipated, and low clouds are
doing the same as drier air pushes into the region aloft.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today, a shortwave trough will quickly
approach the region from the Ohio Valley. A decaying
front/surface trough will likewise cross the area with a wind
shift from south to west. Guidance indicates early morning cloud
cover may be able to break up a bit. With dew points in the mid
to upper 60s, CAPE values will near or exceed 1000 J/kg,
especially east of the Blue Ridge. As the trough axis enters
this area by early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
develop. Models are in incredible agreement of a cluster of
storms developing in the north central Virginia piedmont before
racing across the Fredericksburg and lower Potomac areas. That's
not to say showers/storms won't be possible elsewhere along the
I-95 corridor...just worth pointing out this trend. The best
wind fields will be departing the area, but there may be enough
shear (around 30 kt) to help these storms organize and produce a
strong to damaging wind threat. The departure of the upper
trough and overall weakening of forcing should preclude a more
widespread threat, but mesoscale trends will need to be
monitored. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, but the speed
of the storms should limit the flood threat. A few showers and
storms could approach the Appalachians along a weaker trough,
but these are expected to be weaker and more sparse. High
temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s with 70s in the
higher elevations.

Any showers and storms should depart by early evening with
mostly clear skies prevailing overnight. A few patches of fog
could form in the western valleys. Temperatures and humidity
will be a touch lower behind the trough, with lows ranging from
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure will take control of the weather this
weekend. Zonal flow on Saturday will be give way to building
upper level ridging as a trough dives into the Pacific
northwest. Deeper/richer moisture will have been shunted to the
deep south and will take a few days to return northward, so dry
weather should prevail through the weekend. A stray shower could
near the far southwest CWA on Sunday, but have left the forecast
dry for now. Some mid level clouds could cross the area at
times, but there should be plenty of sunshine. High temperatures
will rapidly respond into the upper 80s/lower 90s on Saturday,
with 90s a bit more common Sunday. Dew points (humidity) will
remain moderate for this time of year Saturday, but start
inching up Sunday. Expect lows mainly in the 60s with some lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Bermuda high will remain situated off the eastern seaboard Monday
through the later parts of next week with an upper level ridge
becoming more pronounced over the Northern Plains. A backdoor front
will approach from the north and become stalled somewhere north of
the region next week. Our region will remain on the warm side of the
frontal boundary and combined with the high sitting off-shore will
lead to continued advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level disturbances moving over the ridge may drop down
into our region and combine with warm and humid conditions to bring
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms next week mainly
during peak heating periods. It looks like shear will be limited
which should limit the threat for any strong to severe thunderstorms
to form next week but there remains some uncertainty especially on
the location of the stalled front. The main story for next week will
be the potential multiple days of 90+ temperatures which combined
with increase humidity may lead to heat indexes in the 95 to 100
range.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lower CIGs/VSBYs have generally started to lift/burn off across
the region. So, have generally adjusted TAFs to account for
that. Some clusters of showers are also drifting about but
likely won't reduce conditions much further. MRB has been
experiencing variable fog which will dissipate after sunrise.

Breaks in the clouds later this morning will give way to
additional shower and thunderstorm development early this
afternoon. The Washington metro will have the highest chance of
a storm, though many models keep the worst to the south of the
TAF sites. Strong winds and heavy rain could accompany any
storm. After this trough of low pressure passes, winds will
shift to the west and VFR conditions will prevail into tonight.

Over the weekend, high pressure will take control with VFR
conditions and light south winds.

Light winds mainly out of the south to southwest along with VFR
conditions are expected at this time for next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Aside from a brief heavy shower or thunderstorm in the next hour
or so over the central Bay, winds have fallen below SCA
criteria, so that SCA was dropped earlier this morning.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon which could
warrant SMWs due to strong winds. After the responsible trough
axis crosses, winds will shift to the west tonight. A brief gust
or two near SCA criteria could occur on the northern part of
the bay Saturday morning, but overall light winds are expected
over the weekend. As winds become southerly due to high pressure
offshore, channeled flow on the bay could approach SCA levels
Saturday and Sunday evenings, but looks most likely to remain
below criteria at this time.

Light winds out of the south to south west are expected over the
waters next week. SubSCA conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light southerly winds will lead to elevate anomalies through the
early parts of this weekend. Some of our tidal sites will likely
reach action stage over the next few tidal cycles but minor flooding
is not expected at this time. Winds will become more southwesterly
this weekend which should push water away from our Chesapeake Bay
sites but may lead to elevated water levels on the Tidal
Potomac.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/JMG
MARINE...ADS/CJL/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-051715-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect this afternoon for
southern Maryland and the Fredericksburg area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-051715-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect this afternoon for
Orange County in central Virginia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-051715-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
108 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
733 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     FLOOD            PORT DEPOSIT            39.61N  76.12W
06/03/2021                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            NORTH MAIN STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN PORT
            DEPOSIT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104241

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
736 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     FLOOD            1 SW WOODLAWN           39.62N  76.10W
06/03/2021                   CECIL              MD   911 CALL CENTER

            BURLIN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR JACOB TOME
            MEMORIAL HIGHWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104242

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW LONG GREEN         39.51N  76.56W
06/03/2021                   BALTIMORE          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            CONCENTRATION OF TREE DAMAGE ALONG OVERSHOT COURT.
            COUNTY 911 ESTIMATES DOZENS OF TREES DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104243

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1127 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BEL AIR           39.54N  76.32W
06/03/2021                   HARFORD            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES BLEW DOWN ON CHEROKEE LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104244

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1136 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE BEL AIR           39.52N  76.31W
06/03/2021                   HARFORD            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE TREES BLEW DOWN ON PATTERSON MILL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104245

CPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1231 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW CHURCHVILLE       39.55N  76.29W
06/03/2021                   HARFORD            MD   911 CALL CENTER

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A GARAGE AND FIVE TREES DOWN IN
            THE 2000 BLOCK OF CHURCHVILLE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2104246

CPB