Ice Storm Warning 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

913 
WWUS41 KLWX 152349
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

MDZ008-508-160100-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Cecil-Southeast Harford-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Surface temperatures are currently above freezing and expected to
remain steady or even slow rise tonight. Therefore, freezing rain
is no longer expected.

$$

MDZ001-501-160800-
/O.CON.KLWX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with ice accumulations around one quarter 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. The steadiest freezing rain is 
  expected 8 PM and Midnight.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening or morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

MDZ003-004-502-VAZ028-507-508-WVZ050>052-501-503-504-160800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Western Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with ice accumulations around a tenth to 
  a quarter of an inch. The highest ice accumulations will be 
  above 1000 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of north-central, central and northwest 
  Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening or morning 
  commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

VAZ025>027-029>031-503-504-WVZ053-055-502-505-506-160800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with ice accumulation around one tenth of 
  an inch. The highest accumulations will be along the ridges.

* WHERE...The Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, portions of 
  northern Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands of West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening or morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

MDZ005-006-503-505-507-VAZ040-501-505-160800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with ice accumulation around one tenth of 
  an inch with the highest accumulations near the Mason-Dixon 
  Line and near the Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHERE...The farther northern and western suburbs of Baltimore, 
  north-central Maryland, and portions of northern Virginia near 
  the Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening or morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

489 
WWUS41 KLWX 160803
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
303 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

MDZ001-501-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-
303 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations up to one 
  tenth of an inch. Total ice accumulations around one quarter of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

MDZ003-004-502-VAZ028-507-508-WVZ050>052-501-503-504-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Western Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-
303 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a few
  hundreths of an inch. Total ice accumulations around one tenth 
  to a quarter of an inch. The highest ice accumulations will be 
  above 1000 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of north-central, central and northwest
  Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

VAZ025>027-029>031-503-504-WVZ053-055-502-505-506-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
303 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a few
  hundreths of an inch. Total ice accumulations around one tenth 
  of an inch. The highest accumulations will be along the ridges.

* WHERE...The Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, portions of 
  northern Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands of West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

MDZ005-006-503-505-507-VAZ040-501-505-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
303 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a few
  hundreths of an inch. Total ice accumulations around one tenth
  of an inch with the highest accumulations near the Mason Dixon 
  Line and near the Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHERE...The farther northern and western suburbs of Baltimore, 
  north-central Maryland, and portions of northern Virginia near 
  the Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

857 
WWUS41 KLWX 160956
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

VAZ508-162000-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 inches and ice accumulations of one quarter 
  of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

VAZ025-503-504-162000-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/
Augusta-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 inches and ice accumulations of one quarter 
  of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Augusta and Highland Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

MDZ005-006-503-505-507-VAZ026-027-029>031-040-501-505-WVZ053-055-
502-505-506-161100-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Northwest Harford-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Jefferson-Hardy-
Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures are starting to rise and precipitation has generally
ended.

$$

VAZ507-161100-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures are starting to rise and precipitation has generally
ended.

$$

MDZ001-501-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are 
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

MDZ003-004-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>052-501-503-504-161200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Western Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light 
  glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland,
  northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are 
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

VAZ036-037-162000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/
Nelson-Albemarle-
456 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one 
  quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Nelson and Albemarle Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

132 
WWUS41 KLWX 161107
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
607 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

MDZ001-501-161215-
/O.CAN.KLWX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-
607 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures are starting to rise above freezing and 
precipitation has ended.

$$

MDZ003-004-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>052-501-503-504-161215-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Western Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-
607 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures are starting to rise above freezing and 
precipitation has ended.

$$

VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508-161915-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0600Z-210219T0600Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
607 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 inches and ice accumulations of one quarter 
  of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure is forecast to remain anchored over the
central United States into southeastern Canada through much of
the upcoming week. Waves of low pressure developing over the
Deep South and moving up the Appalachians will bring threats
for wintry precipitation today into tonight and again Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overrunning will continue to increase today ahead of low
pressure over the southeastern CONUS. High pressure will remain
to our north, so the low-level cold air will remain in place.
this will cause the likelihood for light freezing rain and
drizzle late this morning near and west of the Blue Ridge and
Catoctin Mountains where temperatures are still close to
freezing. Temperatures should rise above freezing for most areas
this afternoon as some radiation from the sun makes it through
the clouds. Therefore, most areas will experience light rain and
drizzle this afternoon. A couple exceptions are along the Blue
Ridge Mountains and also across northern and western Maryland
along/west of the Catoctins into the eastern Panhandle of WV
and the Allegheny Highlands. The Winter Weather Advisory
continues for these areas. Most impact from any freezing rain
should be confined to elevated surfaces especially over the
ridge tops.

Low pressure will track up the Appalachains tonight while
another low tracks up the Mid-Atlantic Coast. A steadier rain is
expected across the entire area, but temperatures may cool
slightly due to the loss of radiation from the sun through the
clouds. At this point, a Winter Weather Advisory is re-
introduced to many of the same areas as the one this morning.
The cold air will be shallow, with minimum temperatures likely
at ridgetop level. As the night progresses, the lack of a strong
high pressure ridge as well as strong low pressure over the
Ohio River will likely result in rising temperatures for many
areas overnight. Given model spread in temperatures and known
cold air damming biases, have the advisory extending through the
night, though it may not be necessary for that long. While some
of the colder ridges could approach warning criteria, am
thinking moderate to briefly heavy precipitation rates tonight,
a very warm nose aloft (eventually greater than +10C), and
marginal surface temperatures will likely mean ice accretion
will be inefficient. Otherwise rain totals could exceed a half
inch across much of the area.

Given the nuances of the event, some adjustments may be
necessary based on latest data trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering rain will be to the I-95 corridor by daybreak
Tuesday, if not completely out of the area. Gusty northwest
winds will take hold behind the trailing cold front, although
temperatures should be able to pop into the 40s and 50s. The sun
should peak out finally, at least east of the Allegheny Front.
Some upslope snow showers may linger into Tuesday evening, but
accumulations would be minimal.

High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Tuesday night
and Wednesday helping to usher in colder air once again: Lows in
the teens/20s and highs mainly in the 30s.

The next low pressure system will arrive late Wednesday night.
Thermal profiles are still in question, but a few quick inches
of snow are not out of the question. Regardless, a wintry mix
would be likely at onset for most areas as low temperatures will
be below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Broad low pressure over the Deep South and southeastern U.S. will
lift northward Thursday through Thursday night, with widespread
precipitation expected across the area during this time. As high
pressure centers itself over New England and southern Quebec
Thursday, this will allow for colder air to remain locked in along
the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Snow will likely be ongoing
Thursday morning across the northern half of the CWA, while a wintry
mix will be favored for our southern zones. Warmer air aloft will
increase its presence throughout the day Thursday, allowing the
wintry mix to march northward for much of the CWA by Thursday
afternoon, while a changeover to plain rain seems plausible across
southern Maryland. Before the full transition takes place, the
northern half of the CWA, mainly across the Potomac/Allegheny
Highlands, will have the potential of seeing warning criteria
accumulating by Thursday afternoon.

As the warm nose aloft takes over Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night, a wintry mix will be favored along and west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains, with the potential for significant ice accumulation
across the higher elevations of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands.
Guidance has trended colder the last several cycles, so how far
north and west of the metro areas the mixing line retreats will need
to be ironed out in the coming days. The majority of guidance
continues to highlight elevated probabilities for QPF exceeding 1
inch for much of the CWA given the Gulf Coast origins of the system
and the associated deep upper trough.

Precipitation will come to an end Friday morning as the low pulls
off the coast and northwest winds ushering in a drier airmass. The
northwest winds will turn gusty on Friday and remain so through
Friday night as upslope snow showers kick in across the Allegheny
Front. In the wake of the system and a colder airmass being advected
into the region as high pressure builds to our west, temperatures
will take a dive Friday night, dropping down into the teens and 20s
areawide. Wind chills Friday night will dip below zero across the
higher elevations, with single digits and teens elsewhere. Dry
conditions and diminishing winds expected Saturday and Saturday
night as high pressure builds over the region, while temperatures
remain below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will gradually lower late this morning into early this
afternoon, likely reaching IFR levels. A light wintry mix is
possible mainly near KMRB, with mainly rain most likely for the
rest of the terminals. Heavier precipitation will arrive
overnight with potential for LIFR conditions. Lower- level wind
shear is possible late tonight.

The system quickly exits Tuesday morning with improving
conditions, and some northwest wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible
through Tuesday evening. VFR conditions will persist through
Wednesday. The next system will approach Wednesday night with
the threat for a wintry mix.

An extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions seems likely Thursday and
Thursday night as a dynamic low pressure system crosses the
terminals, delivering a myriad of wintry precipitation, with
potentially significant accumulations to portions of the area. Winds
will favor an east northeast trajectory during the day on Thursday,
veering out of the south southwest Thursday night, remaining at 10
knots or less. In the wake of the system Friday morning, VFR
conditions return as winds increase out of the northwest and gust 20
to 25 knots through Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds have subsided below SCA levels this morning.
Light winds will persist through today. The pressure gradient is
forecast to tighten a bit tonight into Tuesday as the surface
wind turns easterly then southerly, which may result in gusts of
20 to 25 knots, especially over middle sections of the bay.
SCAs will likely then be needed Tuesday afternoon and night in
gusty northwest flow. Lighter winds are expected Wednesday and
most of Wednesday night.

Low pressure will impact the area Thursday through early Friday,
delivering widespread precipitation and potentially of the wintry
variety for portions of our marine waters. Mariners can expected
reduced visibilities over the waters during this time, as well as an
increased likelihood of SCA gusts Thursday and Thursday night as the
gradient tightens. East northeast winds Thursday will turn out of
the south southwest Thursday night. In the wake of the system, winds
will increase further out of the northwest Friday and Friday night,
with a continued likelihood of SCA gusts to persist.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northerly breezes will fend off any threat of tidal flooding the
next couple of high tide cycles. However, tonight into Tuesday
morning, low pressure will cross the area allowing those northerly
winds to turn out of the east southeast and then southerly by around
daybreak Tuesday. Higher anomalies down near the southern portion of
the Chesapeake Bay may try to sneak northward during this timeframe,
while combining with the increasing onshore flow. This may result in
the potential for some of our sensitive sites to reach Action or
perhaps Minor flood.

As quickly as the winds turn onshore, they clock around to the west
northwest during the day Tuesday, allowing water levels to recede
through Wednesday. A more persistent period of onshore winds looks
to return to the waters Thursday and Thursday night, which could
yield a renewed chance of increasing tidal anomalies and the threat
for minor flooding along the western shores of the Chesapeake Bay
and into the tidal Potomac.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ001-003-
     004-501-502.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ005-006-008-503-505-507-508.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ028-507-
     508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ025>027-
     029>031-503-504.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ025>027-029>031-040-501-503>505.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ050>052-
     501-503-504.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ053-055-
     502-505-506.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ053-055-502-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Tuesday
     for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/BKF
MARINE...BJL/ADS/BKF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BKF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
958 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-161000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
958 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5 PM to 7 AM for Cecil
and southeast Harford Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is an enhanced winter storm threat late Wednesday night
into Thursday. There is increased potential of more significant
travel impacts and closures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-161000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
958 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
portions of western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Frederick
County Virginia. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect for the I-81 corridor and northern Maryland until noon,
then again from 5 PM until 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is an enhanced winter storm threat late Wednesday night
into Friday morning. There is increased potential of more
significant travel impacts and closures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-161000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
958 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
Allegany, Garrett, Mineral, and western Grant Counties. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the area
until noon, then again from 5 PM until 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a moderate winter storm threat late Wednesday night into
Friday morning. Potential impacts include significant significant
travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you
and your family.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report winter weather via standard
operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NW WINTERGREEN        37.92N  78.94W
02/15/2021  E0.01 INCH       NELSON             VA   PUBLIC

            LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2102624

BJL