High Wind Watch 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Morgan County, WV

428 
WWUS71 KLWX 291545
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1145 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505>508-WVZ051>053-
292345-
/O.CON.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, 
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, 
Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, 
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, 
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, 
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, 
Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, 
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, 
and Shepherdstown
1145 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Potential for northwesterly wind gusts of 60 MPH.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, northern
  Virginia including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the eastern 
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind may occur in two waves:
  one Friday afternoon, and a second Friday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

DHOF

294 
WWUS71 KLWX 291832
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-300245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.210501T0400Z-210501T1300Z/
Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville,
Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, and Riverton
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western 
  Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western 
  Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-VAZ053-054-300245-
/O.EXA.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, 
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Reston, 
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, 
Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Potential for west-northwesterly wind gusts of 60 mph.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, Prince Georges County in
  Maryland, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties in Virginia including
  the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind may occur in two waves:
  one Friday afternoon, and a second Friday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505>508-WVZ051>053-
300245-
/O.CON.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, 
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, 
Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, 
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, 
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, 
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, 
Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, 
Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, 
and Shepherdstown
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Potential for west-northwesterly wind gusts of 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, northern
  Virginia including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the eastern 
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest wind may occur in two waves:
  one Friday afternoon, and a second Friday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

DHOF

994 
WWUS71 KLWX 300018
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503-505>508-VAZ505-WVZ051>053-300830-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0600Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Western Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, 
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, 
Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, 
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, 
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Purcellville, 
Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and central Maryland, the Baltimore
  Metropolitan area, portions of the eastern West Virginia
  Panhandle, and western Loudoun County in northern Virginia. 

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday. The strongest
  winds are most likely late Friday afternoon through Friday
  evening. 

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

VAZ503-WVZ501-505-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.210501T0400Z-210501T1300Z/
Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, 
and Riverton
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with
  gusts up to 55 mph expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub- 
  freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West 
  Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday. 
  For the Freeze Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

MDZ001-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.210501T0400Z-210501T1300Z/
Garrett-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, 
and Grantsville
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with
  gusts up to 55 mph expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing
  temperatures as low as 31 possible.

* WHERE...Garrett County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday. 
  For the Freeze Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

VAZ030-300830-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0000Z/
Warren-
Including the city of Front Royal
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Warren County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-504-VAZ053-054-506-300830-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1600Z-210501T0600Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, 
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Reston, Herndon, 
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, 
Alexandria, Falls Church, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Prince Georges and Central and Southeast 
  Montgomery Counties. In District of Columbia, District of 
  Columbia. In Virginia, Fairfax and Eastern Loudoun Counties, 
  and Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday. The strongest
  winds are most likely late Friday afternoon through Friday
  evening. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ028-031-300830-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0200Z/
Frederick VA-Clarke-
Including the cities of Winchester and Berryville
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Frederick VA and Clarke Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ507-508-300830-
/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0600Z/
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Big Meadows and Wintergreen
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue 
  Ridge.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

VAZ025>027-029-504-WVZ055-502-506-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0000Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Eastern Highland-Hardy-
Eastern Grant-Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, 
Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, 
Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Monterey, Moorefield, Petersburg, 
Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Augusta, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Page and 
  Eastern Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Hardy, Eastern 
  Grant and Eastern Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MDZ016>018-VAZ040-051-052-055-501-502-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1600Z-210501T0600Z/
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-
Including the cities of St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, 
California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, 
Lusby, Prince Frederick, Washington, Culpeper, Dale City, 
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Falmouth, Warrenton,
and Turnbull
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Charles, St. Marys and Calvert Counties. 
  In Virginia, Rappahannock, Culpeper, Prince 
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Stafford, Northern Fauquier 
  and Southern Fauquier Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MDZ501-502-WVZ050-503-504-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.210430T1400Z-210501T0200Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Romney, 
Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, 
Headsville, and Fort Ashby
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Central and 
  Eastern Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Hampshire, 
  Western Mineral and Eastern Mineral Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
945 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high will continue to shift farther offshore
through Thursday, which will allow a cold front to approach the
region. The front will cross the area Thursday night, then high
pressure will gradually build back into the region for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will remain centered over the Atlantic tonight
while a nearly stationary boundary remains well to our north in
a zonal flow aloft. A southwesterly flow around the high will
usher in very mild conditions for this time of year with min
temps holding in the 60s for most locations.

An upper-level disturbance in the zonal flow will move into the
area late this evening into the overnight and another one will
likely follow for very late tonight into tomorrow morning. A few
showers are likely overnight, especially over the Potomac
Highlands and near/north of Interstate 66 and US 50, closer to
the track of the disturbances. However, any heavier shower or
thunderstorm activity will likely be confined to near the
Allegheny Highlands where instability will be a little higher
(mostly elevated). Farther east, instability will be even weaker
and a downsloping low-level flow along with the lack of low-
level forcing suggests that any shower activity will be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday, the front will have stalled just to our north
across Pennsylvania and Ohio. There will be plenty of moisture
and convergence along the frontal zone, so showers should be
ongoing. The biggest question is just how far south into our
area showers will impact the morning hours: highest chances near
the Pennsylvania border, with dry conditions likely across
central Virginia/southern Maryland. An upper level trough will
dive southeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and
evening, causing low pressure to develop along the front and
eventually push the front southeastward across the area.
Precipitation may still largely be limited to northern and
western areas through the afternoon and early evening. With the
upper level trough approaching, wind fields will increase, but
instability will be inhibited by ongoing showers, cloud cover,
and poor lapse rates. However, some gusty/organized showers and
embedded storms could develop as forcing increases late in the
day, which is highlighted by a Marginal severe weather risk from
SPC. The other issue to watch will be the potential for locally
heavy rain due to the stalled front, training precipitation, and
unseasonably high precipitable water values. At this time, the
highest rain totals are expected north and west of our CWA. High
temperatures will stay in the 70s across northwestern areas,
but temperatures should be able to push into the mid 80s again
near and south of DC where clouds aren't as thick.

The cold front will push across the area Thursday night. Showers
and storms may tend to fall apart with the loss of daytime
heating, but at least some showers will be possible across the
entire area.

On Friday, strengthening low pressure will be moving across New
England, while strong high pressure builds across the Midwest
behind the departing cold front. This will result in strong
northwest winds potentially reaching Wind Advisory criteria,
especially across northern/western areas. There remains some
uncertainty in the strength of the low level wind fields, as
well as whether the strongest winds will overlap the deepest
diurnal mixing (two surges: post frontal early in the morning,
and with a vort max/secondary front during the late
afternoon/evening). Winds could remain elevated through the
night.

Most areas will be dry by Friday, although there could be some
upslope rain showers along the Allegheny Front, as well as an
isolated shower near the Pennsylvania border as the upper trough
crosses the area. Temperatures will return closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance continues to depict a split flow regime across the CONUS
with a deep trough exiting New England Saturday. A somewhat deeper
trend has been noted with this trough over the last few model
cycles. There is some lingering uncertainty with the fate of an
upper low in the southern stream and its ejection across the lower
MS Valley late in the weekend into early next week, but locally most
sensible weather will be reliant on the more closely positioned
northern stream this weekend.

Noticeably cooler temperatures and blustery conditions are forecast
Saturday in the wake of a surface cold front attendant to the
aforementioned upper trough exiting New England. A warming trend is
anticipated Sunday into Monday as high pressure building in behind
the front shifts offshore.

By early next week, the upper low moving across the lower MS Valley
begins to drift back into phase with the northern stream. At the
surface, a sprawling frontal zone will likely arc from the Northeast
across the Midwest and into the Plains. As the front slowly presses
southeastward, multiple waves riding along it will spark shower and
thunderstorm chances. Given increasing heat, humidity, and shear
overlaying the approaching frontal zone, thunderstorms that develop
could become severe, especially if the waves forcing the storms
cross around peak heating. Uncertainty remains, though, given at
least part of this setup will be reliant on the ejection of an upper
low, something that models often struggle with in the medium
range.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue with southwesterly winds through tonight.
A few additional showers are possible overnight with the
greatest chance at MRB.

A cold front will approach Thursday and cross Thursday night.
Gusty southwest winds will pick back up during the day. It's
questionable how far south and showers or isolated thunderstorms
get during the day, with the highest chances at MRB (including
a period of MVFR ceilings). The metro area terminals will have
the highest rain and possible thunder chances during the
evening, but by this time, coverage may be more scattered. A
brief period of MVFR ceilings could occur, but confidence is
low.

Winds will become northwesterly behind the front, and gusts
could reach 30-40 kt Friday into Friday evening.

Mainly VFR expected this weekend. NW wind gusts of 20-30 kt psbl
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will continue through Thursday due to high
pressure off the southeast coast. SCA are expected over portions
of the middle Bay and lower Tidal Potomac River overnight, but
it will be marginal due to the cooler waters.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will be a more common Thursday,
but mixing issues will continue over the deeper waters. An SCA
is in effect for the Potomac as well as the northern Bay and
Baltimore Harbor/Patuxent River due to a deeper mixing layer
expected near land. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday
night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along
the front. SCA conditions will also likely continue, especially
after winds shift to the northwest. Two surges of strong winds
are expected:
one early Friday morning behind the front, and
another late Friday afternoon/evening behind a secondary front.
At least brief gale force winds are possible, so have hoisted a
Gale Watch for a large portion of the waters. Have held off for
the southern Maryland waters for now since winds may not
increase until Friday evening and may be marginal. Elevated
winds likely continue through Friday night.

A gusty northwesterly wind will likely persist through at least the
first half of Saturday behind a departing cold front. The wind
should abate Saturday night as high pressure moves across, then may
increase a bit again late in the weekend as the high moves
offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A southerly flow will keep water levels elevated through
Thursday. Minor tidal flooding is possible in sensitive areas
like DC SW Waterfront and the Upper Chesapeake Bay, but
caution/sub-flood levels look more likely. Water levels will
decrease for the end of the week behind a strong cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record temperature for April 28th (Wednesday) at Dulles was
tied with a high of 88 degrees. The previous record of 88
degrees was set in 1990.

Records for Thursday across the area climate sites:

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS
DCA: 70 (2017)
IAD: 65 (2017)
BWI: 67 (2017)

THURSDAY HIGHS
DCA: 91 (2017)
IAD: 89 (2017)
BWI: 91 (1974)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
     ANZ530>533-535-538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530-
     531-535>539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ533-534-
     537-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/DHOF
MARINE...BJL/ADS/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...LWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-291000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Gale Watch is in effect for portions of the tidal waters Friday
and Friday night.

Wind Advisories may be required for Friday into Friday night as a
strong cold front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-291000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Wind Advisories may be required for Friday into Friday night as a
strong cold front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-291000-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Wind Advisories may be required for Friday into Friday night as a
strong cold front moves through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.