Alert archive / Virginia / Flood Watches in 2021

Flood Watch 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington

October 28, 20216 counties in Maryland; 17 counties in Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flood watch at Oct 28, 2021, 2:07 PM EDT for 6 counties in Maryland; 17 counties in Virginia. It took effect at Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 28, 2021, 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Baltimore/Washington
Flood severity
None
All 23 counties

Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Greene County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Warren County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-10-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -6 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
888 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

578 
WGUS61 KLWX 281807
FFALWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

VAZ036>040-507-508-290215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue
Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, 
Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville
207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia and northwest 
  Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, 
  Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In 
  northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and 
  Rappahannock.

* From Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall 
  totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge 
  Mountains.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, 
  including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In 
  Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and 
  Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In 
  northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and 
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* From Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

BJL
5 follow-up statements
331 
WGUS61 KLWX 290049
FFALWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

VAZ036>040-507-508-290900-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue
Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, 
Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville
849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia 
  Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, 
  Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock.

* From 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall 
  totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge 
  Mountains.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290900-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne 
  Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast 
  Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern 
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince 
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* From Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

BRO
749 
WGUS61 KLWX 290845
FFALWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

VAZ036>040-507-508-291645-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue
Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, 
Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville
445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia 
  Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, 
  Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock.

* Until 3 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall 
  totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge 
  Mountains.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-291645-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne 
  Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast 
  Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern 
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince 
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* From 10 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

LFR
408 
WGUS61 KLWX 291621
FFALWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

VAZ036>040-507-508-291730-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue
Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, 
Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville
1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch has been cancelled for portions of central Virginia 
and northwest Virginia, including the following areas: in central 
Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. 
In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and 
Rappahannock.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Additional flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat. A flood warning remains in effect for 
areas along the eastern half of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closure.

$$

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292000-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne 
  Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast 
  Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern 
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince 
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with 
  isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JMG
866 
WGUS61 KLWX 291959
FFALWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292200-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
359 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the 
  following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne 
  Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast 
  Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern 
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince 
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* Additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly 
  rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for 
  flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

BRO
599 
WGUS61 KLWX 292148
FFALWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
548 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292300-
/O.EXP.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, 
Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, 
Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, 
Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, 
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, 
Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, 
Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia
548 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, 
including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In 
Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and 
Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In 
northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and 
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park will expire at 6 PM EDT this 
evening.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. However, a number of Flood Warnings 
remain in effect where flooding is currently ongoing. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

BRO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Oct 28, 9:51 AM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 9:51 AM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
951 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface and upper-level ridging continues across the region
today before pushing off to the east tonight ahead the next low
pressure system. Strong low pressure builds into the area by
late Thursday Night into Friday from the southwest, bringing
several potential impacts to the area. The upper low will linger
through Sunday leading to continued cool and unsettled
conditions. High pressure returns for the first part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: Some areas of patchy fog has formed across
portions of central/western MD and along the Shenandoah Valley.
The fog should begin to dissipate over the next hour or so. High
cirrus clouds are slowly moving in from the SW but overall
mostly sunny conditions for the first part of the day. A few
showers are beginning to make it into far SW VA and will
eventually make it into our CWA by early afternoon.

See Previous Discussion Below:

Current surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the
area with a strong low moving off the east coast away from New
England. Additionally, another strengthening low pressure system
is located over Arkansas/Missouri, and this will be the system
to impact us tonight through Friday. In the upper levels, a deep
upper trough is situated over the central CONUS. A cutoff upper
low is beginning to pinch off of this trough as it moves east
into the Mississippi River Valley.

For today though, not much action is expected, as this system
will be gradually moving towards our region. This morning and
afternoon looks to remain fairly quiet, with only some clouds
building in from the southwest ahead of the aforementioned
system. The upper-low will gradually push towards the area by
this evening, pushing high pressure off to our east by this
evening. An intense surface low will progress northeastward
today as well, with the attendant warm front pushing through
the area overnight tonight bringing an initial wave of moisture
into the southwest zones by Thursday night. Mild temps for late
October as a result of the clouds/rain moving into the area with
temperatures only dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By early Friday morning, the main impacts with this storm will
begin across the region. Heaviest rainfall will fall Friday
morning through Friday evening, moving from south to north
across the region. Strong onshore flow ahead of the warm front
will lead to some locally heavier rainfall rates over the higher
elevations, especially the Blue Ridge. Expecting 1-2 inches of
rain over about a 12 hour period across the region, with locally
higher amounts up to 4 inches in those areas aided by orographic
enhancement. Speaking of winds, those will be gusty out of the
east-southeast, but should generally remain below Wind Advisory
criteria. Could see the higher elevations come close to some 40
knot gusts, but recent guidance has backed off a bit on the
strength of the low-mid level flow. A Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall remains present during the day on Friday.

Marine winds and coastal flooding will be the main threats with
this system though, so please look at those respective sections
in the AFD below for more details.

The warm front pushes off to the north and east Friday night
through Saturday. Meanwhile, the main upper low moves directly
overhead. This will lead to continued showers during this
period. Lows Friday night will again be mild for this time of
year, only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs on Saturday
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern will become more zonal early next week leading
to more seasonable weather. A dry cold front will cross the area
Monday with sfc ridging building from the west leading to tranquil
conditions through the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the day on today with
lighter winds out of the northeast. A potent low pressure system
will begin to move in from the southwest overnight tonight.
Expect ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR during the evening,
although there is some uncertainty how quickly this will occur.

Winds begin to pick up out of the ESE across the region
Thursday evening and will only increase in intensity through
Friday. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected due to low ceilings
and occasional moderate to heavy rain as a strong warm pushes
through the region. Thunderstorm chances are low but non-zero.
Strong easterly winds will peak during the day on Friday,
although low level wind shear could become a factor when
nocturnal cooling or heavier rainfall stabilizes surface
conditions. Winds will diminish quickly Friday evening in the
wake of the warm front as the main upper low moves overhead.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely at all terminals Saturday as low
pressure at the surface and aloft settles over the terminals,
resulting in plentiful cloud cover, increased rain chances and
light southerly winds.

Gusty NW winds Sunday as low pressure departs.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through this afternoon as high
pressure remains in control.

Winds begin to pickup out of the ESE Thursday evening/night,
especially picking up Friday morning through Friday evening.
Went ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory starting this
evening and going through Friday morning, where a Gale Warning
then starts and goes until Friday afternoon/evening.

Light southerly breezes are expected across the waters Saturday as
low pressure tracks across the region.

SCA conditions likely persisting through Monday afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Despite NW offshore flow earlier tonight, water levels have risen
substantially during the past 24 hrs much sooner than anticipated by
most of the surge models except the CBOFS which showed water levels
rising rather rapidly since yesterday. Water anomalies are already
up to 2 ft at Straits Point and rising and Annapolis has been
hovering around minor flood stage even as the astro tide is going
into low tide. Surge models continue to indicate a moderate to high
impact coastal flood event lasting several tide cycles (more than 48
hrs). Leaned toward the CBOFS first 24 hrs given its superior
performance over the other deterministic surge models and ensemble
probabilistic guidance (P-ETSS). This brings moderate coastal
flooding much earlier than shown 24 hrs ago and even late yesterday
evening. Straits Point will likely hit major flood category tonight.
In the upper bay, water levels may hit moderate Saturday afternoon
as SW winds may push water up the bay. Issued a Coastal Flood Watch
for Harford and Cecil for Fri night into Sat and Advisories for
tonight. Elsewhere, Coastal Flood Watches were upgraded to Warnings
except at Prince Georges where there are unknown impacts of moderate
category except minor flooding at the National Harbor.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for DCZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ011-013-016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014-017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011-
     016-018.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     morning for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ018.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     morning for MDZ508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Friday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ052-053-055-057.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CJL/ADM
NEAR TERM...CJL/ADM
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/ADM
MARINE...LFR/CJL/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/CJL/ADM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 28, 5:19 AM EDT, 8 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ052>057-290930-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for many shoreline areas
along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River starting today
and continuing through tonight. Moderate tidal flooding is
possible, and major flooding cannot be ruled out in a few
locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Gale Warning is in effect from 6 AM Friday morning through
8 PM Friday evening for all waters.

Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for many shoreline areas
along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River from Friday
through Saturday morning. Moderate tidal flooding is possible, and
major flooding cannot be ruled out in a few locations.

Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered
instances of flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ050>053-055-290930-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered
instances of flooding possible.

Gusty winds are possible especially over the higher elevations on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-290930-
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered
instances of flooding possible.

Gusty winds are possible especially over the higher elevations on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CJL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 28, 4:29 AM EDTCoastal Flood WarningLWX72 hr
Oct 28, 4:29 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryLWX12 hr
Oct 28, 1:06 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, Saint Mary's, City of Baltimore15 hr
Oct 28, 2:24 PM EDTHigh Wind WarningLWXCalvert, Saint Mary's24 hr
Oct 28, 2:24 PM EDTWind AdvisoryLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Cecil, Harford, Saint Mary's and 1 more26 hr
Oct 28, 12:24 AM EDTGale WarningLWX41 hr
Oct 28, 12:24 AM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryLWX29 hr
Oct 28, 2:11 PM EDTStorm WarningLWX26 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Virginia, 2021Flood Watches in Maryland, 2021Flood Watches in District of Columbia, 2021Every flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.