Alert archive / Virginia / Flood Watches in 2021
Flood Watch 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington
NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flood watch at Oct 28, 2021, 2:07 PM EDT for 6 counties in Maryland; 17 counties in Virginia. It took effect at Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 28, 2021, 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 29, 2021, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Baltimore/Washington
- Flood severity
- None
All 23 counties
Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Greene County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Warren County, VA
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 888 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
578 WGUS61 KLWX 281807 FFALWX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 VAZ036>040-507-508-290215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. * From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ BJL
5 follow-up statements
331 WGUS61 KLWX 290049 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 VAZ036>040-507-508-290900- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville 849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. * From 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290900- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 849 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ BRO
749 WGUS61 KLWX 290845 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 VAZ036>040-507-508-291645- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1000Z-211029T1900Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. * Until 3 PM EDT this afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. The highest rainfall totals are most likely along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-291645- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * From 10 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ LFR
408 WGUS61 KLWX 291621 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 VAZ036>040-507-508-291730- /O.CAN.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T1900Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Madison, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Washington, Big Meadows, Lovingston, and Charlottesville 1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch has been cancelled for portions of central Virginia and northwest Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. The Flood Watch is cancelled. Additional flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. A flood warning remains in effect for areas along the eastern half of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Please continue to heed remaining road closure. $$ DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292000- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * Until 6 PM EDT this evening. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ JMG
866 WGUS61 KLWX 291959 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292200- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 359 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * Until 6 PM EDT this evening. * Additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ BRO
599 WGUS61 KLWX 292148 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 548 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-292300- /O.EXP.KLWX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 548 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park will expire at 6 PM EDT this evening. The Flood Watch is cancelled. However, a number of Flood Warnings remain in effect where flooding is currently ongoing. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. $$ BRO
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Oct 28, 9:51 AM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 9:51 AM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
951 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface and upper-level ridging continues across the region
today before pushing off to the east tonight ahead the next low
pressure system. Strong low pressure builds into the area by
late Thursday Night into Friday from the southwest, bringing
several potential impacts to the area. The upper low will linger
through Sunday leading to continued cool and unsettled
conditions. High pressure returns for the first part of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: Some areas of patchy fog has formed across
portions of central/western MD and along the Shenandoah Valley.
The fog should begin to dissipate over the next hour or so. High
cirrus clouds are slowly moving in from the SW but overall
mostly sunny conditions for the first part of the day. A few
showers are beginning to make it into far SW VA and will
eventually make it into our CWA by early afternoon.
See Previous Discussion Below:
Current surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the
area with a strong low moving off the east coast away from New
England. Additionally, another strengthening low pressure system
is located over Arkansas/Missouri, and this will be the system
to impact us tonight through Friday. In the upper levels, a deep
upper trough is situated over the central CONUS. A cutoff upper
low is beginning to pinch off of this trough as it moves east
into the Mississippi River Valley.
For today though, not much action is expected, as this system
will be gradually moving towards our region. This morning and
afternoon looks to remain fairly quiet, with only some clouds
building in from the southwest ahead of the aforementioned
system. The upper-low will gradually push towards the area by
this evening, pushing high pressure off to our east by this
evening. An intense surface low will progress northeastward
today as well, with the attendant warm front pushing through
the area overnight tonight bringing an initial wave of moisture
into the southwest zones by Thursday night. Mild temps for late
October as a result of the clouds/rain moving into the area with
temperatures only dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By early Friday morning, the main impacts with this storm will
begin across the region. Heaviest rainfall will fall Friday
morning through Friday evening, moving from south to north
across the region. Strong onshore flow ahead of the warm front
will lead to some locally heavier rainfall rates over the higher
elevations, especially the Blue Ridge. Expecting 1-2 inches of
rain over about a 12 hour period across the region, with locally
higher amounts up to 4 inches in those areas aided by orographic
enhancement. Speaking of winds, those will be gusty out of the
east-southeast, but should generally remain below Wind Advisory
criteria. Could see the higher elevations come close to some 40
knot gusts, but recent guidance has backed off a bit on the
strength of the low-mid level flow. A Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall remains present during the day on Friday.
Marine winds and coastal flooding will be the main threats with
this system though, so please look at those respective sections
in the AFD below for more details.
The warm front pushes off to the north and east Friday night
through Saturday. Meanwhile, the main upper low moves directly
overhead. This will lead to continued showers during this
period. Lows Friday night will again be mild for this time of
year, only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs on Saturday
in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern will become more zonal early next week leading
to more seasonable weather. A dry cold front will cross the area
Monday with sfc ridging building from the west leading to tranquil
conditions through the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the day on today with
lighter winds out of the northeast. A potent low pressure system
will begin to move in from the southwest overnight tonight.
Expect ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR during the evening,
although there is some uncertainty how quickly this will occur.
Winds begin to pick up out of the ESE across the region
Thursday evening and will only increase in intensity through
Friday. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected due to low ceilings
and occasional moderate to heavy rain as a strong warm pushes
through the region. Thunderstorm chances are low but non-zero.
Strong easterly winds will peak during the day on Friday,
although low level wind shear could become a factor when
nocturnal cooling or heavier rainfall stabilizes surface
conditions. Winds will diminish quickly Friday evening in the
wake of the warm front as the main upper low moves overhead.
Sub-VFR conditions are likely at all terminals Saturday as low
pressure at the surface and aloft settles over the terminals,
resulting in plentiful cloud cover, increased rain chances and
light southerly winds.
Gusty NW winds Sunday as low pressure departs.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through this afternoon as high
pressure remains in control.
Winds begin to pickup out of the ESE Thursday evening/night,
especially picking up Friday morning through Friday evening.
Went ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory starting this
evening and going through Friday morning, where a Gale Warning
then starts and goes until Friday afternoon/evening.
Light southerly breezes are expected across the waters Saturday as
low pressure tracks across the region.
SCA conditions likely persisting through Monday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Despite NW offshore flow earlier tonight, water levels have risen
substantially during the past 24 hrs much sooner than anticipated by
most of the surge models except the CBOFS which showed water levels
rising rather rapidly since yesterday. Water anomalies are already
up to 2 ft at Straits Point and rising and Annapolis has been
hovering around minor flood stage even as the astro tide is going
into low tide. Surge models continue to indicate a moderate to high
impact coastal flood event lasting several tide cycles (more than 48
hrs). Leaned toward the CBOFS first 24 hrs given its superior
performance over the other deterministic surge models and ensemble
probabilistic guidance (P-ETSS). This brings moderate coastal
flooding much earlier than shown 24 hrs ago and even late yesterday
evening. Straits Point will likely hit major flood category tonight.
In the upper bay, water levels may hit moderate Saturday afternoon
as SW winds may push water up the bay. Issued a Coastal Flood Watch
for Harford and Cecil for Fri night into Sat and Advisories for
tonight. Elsewhere, Coastal Flood Watches were upgraded to Warnings
except at Prince Georges where there are unknown impacts of moderate
category except minor flooding at the National Harbor.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Saturday for DCZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for MDZ011-013-016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014-017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011-
016-018.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Friday for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Saturday for MDZ018.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for MDZ508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Friday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for VAZ052-053-055-057.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Saturday for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ530>543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CJL/ADM
NEAR TERM...CJL/ADM
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/ADM
MARINE...LFR/CJL/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/CJL/ADMHazardous weather outlook, Oct 28, 5:19 AM EDT, 8 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-290930- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for many shoreline areas along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River starting today and continuing through tonight. Moderate tidal flooding is possible, and major flooding cannot be ruled out in a few locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A Gale Warning is in effect from 6 AM Friday morning through 8 PM Friday evening for all waters. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for many shoreline areas along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River from Friday through Saturday morning. Moderate tidal flooding is possible, and major flooding cannot be ruled out in a few locations. Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered instances of flooding possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-290930- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered instances of flooding possible. Gusty winds are possible especially over the higher elevations on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-290930- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 519 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Locally heavy rain is expected on Friday, with scattered instances of flooding possible. Gusty winds are possible especially over the higher elevations on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CJL
The office that day
Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 4:29 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Warning | LWX | 72 hr | |
| Oct 28, 4:29 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | LWX | 12 hr | |
| Oct 28, 1:06 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | LWX | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, Saint Mary's, City of Baltimore | 15 hr |
| Oct 28, 2:24 PM EDT | High Wind Warning | LWX | Calvert, Saint Mary's | 24 hr |
| Oct 28, 2:24 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | LWX | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Cecil, Harford, Saint Mary's and 1 more | 26 hr |
| Oct 28, 12:24 AM EDT | Gale Warning | LWX | 41 hr | |
| Oct 28, 12:24 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | LWX | 29 hr | |
| Oct 28, 2:11 PM EDT | Storm Warning | LWX | 26 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Virginia, 2021Flood Watches in Maryland, 2021Flood Watches in District of Columbia, 2021Every flood watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.