Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...
A line of thunderstorms along a Pacific cold front moving across
the eastern parts of the forecast area early this morning will
sweep east of the forecast area before sunrise. Surface winds will
then keep a westerly component through the day as a Canadian cold
front remains to the north of the region, a result of the parent
upper low being well to our north and lifting to the northeast.
There will be enough cold advection behind the Pacific front to
knock high temperatures back to near normal levels. Meanwhile the
remnants of T.S. Pamela will stream across northern Mexico today,
getting caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft downstream from
a broad trough axis over the intermountain west. The vast
majority of this deep moisture will remain to the east and south
of the forecast today and tonight with only a small chance of a
shower/storm or two nicking the far southeastern corner of the
forecast area. Will continue previous trend of trimming PoPs and
leave a small area of 20-30 percent across the southeast for this
evening.

.LONG TERM...
A broad upper trough will remain over the western half or more of
the CONUS into Thursday when a short wave trough will dive down
the west side of the longer wave trough. This will finally unlock
the Canadian front and its much cooler air southward through the
southern Plains. This should occur Thursday/Thursday night with a
cool, breezy, autumnal day still on tap for Friday, followed by a
chilly morning on Saturday. Upper level ridging will progress
eastward through the weekend with increasing heights and a return
to southerly winds bringing temperatures back toward normal by
Monday. Quite a bit of spread is in model solutions regarding the
next short wave energy progged to move across the western CONUS
late in the forecast period. Given the lack of anything
resembling clarity, will run with a dry forecast at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon conditions today will be dry and breezy behind this
morning's Pacific cold front. Will see RH bottom out mainly in the
15-20 percent range while WSW winds will have a solid period in
the 15-20 mph range. RFTI forecast topping out at 1, although
would not be surprised to see some brief periods slightly higher.
Given temperatures near normal and current state of the fuels,
will hold off on issuing an RFD. Biggest risk may come for
northeastern parts of the forecast area from the lower reaches of
Palo Duro Canyon east and southeast toward areas from Memphis to
Matador where observed ERC values are toward the 80th percentile.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ021>044-140815-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A frost or light freeze is forecast to occur across the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains early
Saturday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

TXZ023-024-029-130515-
Briscoe TX-Swisher TX-Hale TX-
1142 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hale,
Swisher and northwestern Briscoe Counties through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1141 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Wayside to 4 miles southeast
of Tulia to 6 miles north of Halfway. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tulia, Kress, Vigo Park, Mackenzie Reservoir, Claytonville, and
Edmonson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10123 3431 10156 3431 10157 3426 10162
      3428 10201 3475 10166 3475 10125
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 259DEG 34KT 3475 10155 3451 10170 3428 10197

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SINCAVAGE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
341 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ037-042-043-130915-
Dickens TX-Kent TX-Garza TX-
341 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Kent,
southwestern Dickens and eastern Garza Counties through 415 AM CDT...

At 340 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of White River Lake to 7
miles north of Lake Alan Henry to 9 miles southwest of Justiceburg.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spur, Lake Alan Henry and Justiceburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 10126 3333 10127 3340 10108 3340 10104
      3342 10104 3355 10067 3323 10073 3297 10103
      3296 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 255DEG 36KT 3337 10099 3316 10106 3296 10132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SINCAVAGE