Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA currently west of KLBB and KPVW is gradually
evolving into broken lines, with a mean convective movement to the
east and northeast at around 25 kt. Locally heavy rainfall may
result in brief reductions in VSBY at KLBB and KPVW, in addition
to erratic, strong wind gusts at the surface. Convection remains
low-topped, though hail up to one inch will be possible aloft and
a convective SIGMET remains in effect. 2305Z PIREP out of KLBB
reported MOD turbulence at FL240. SHRA/TSRA will affect KCDS a few
hours after KLBB and KPVW.

There exists the possibility of CIGs cratering into MVFR/IFR at
KLBB and KPVW overnight, in addition to the potential for patchy
fog. Confidence on fog materializing remains low; however, should
this come to fruition, IFR/LIFR VSBY will be possible through
sunrise. VFR will prevail at all three terminals by late Saturday
morning with light northwesterly winds.

Sincavage

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/

SHORT TERM...
An upper level low pressure system rotating across New Mexico will
eject across the northern Texas Panhandle tonight into eastern
Kansas late Saturday. Before flow aloft veers and drying kicks in
later tonight and Saturday, we expect another round of showers and
thunder to spread through much of the area later today on the
Caprock into the early morning Saturday across the Rolling Plains.

As the upper level cold pool spreads over the moderate instability
across the area late this afternoon and evening, storm chances will
improve along with a risk for a few strong or severe thunderstorms
as noted by the Storm Prediction Center in its Day 1 Convective
Outlook. Solutions are in decent agreement moving storms from the
Sacramento Mountains across the Pecos divide into the Texas South
Plains region by early this evening. Storm motion will increase
from the west with a shift to the deeper layer westerly flow and
also potential cold pooling from the rain-cooled outflows.
Excessive rain potential may be offset by this faster storm motion
but a few storms still could be capable of very heavy rain until
this system departs.

Low level moisture will be last to depart, amd may require much of
Saturday morning to dry out before a sunnier afternoon follows.
Temperatures Saturday should warm several degrees over today.
RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Quiet weather ahead for the end of this weekend and through the
upcoming work week. The system that brought rain the last couple of
days will exit northeast, where another disturbance will spin-off off
and dive south, eventually stalling over the southeast CONUS for
much of next week. As a result, as mentioned in the previous
forecast, a short wavelength but high amplitude ridge will be the
buffer between a developing low over the SE Pacific and the one over
the SE CONUS. We will remain dry through most, if not all of next
week with seasonably pleasant temperatures. Highs will climb
slightly above normal late in the week as the ridge axis shifts east
of us and a somewhat warmer airmass builds in, out ahead of the
Pacific low that eventually gets absorbed by the Polar Jet well to
our west and north. Overnight lows will continua their pleasant
cooling trend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
701 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

TXZ021>044-030015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
701 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the Caprock
and Rolling Plains through early Saturday morning. Locally heavy rain
rates will be possible with total accumulations around one inch,
which may result in localized, minor flooding. Isolated strong wind
gusts up to 50 mph and small hail to around dime size will be
possible from the strongest storms as well.

Patchy fog, perhaps dense in a few locations, may develop across the
Caprock after thunderstorm activity ends. Reductions in visibility
may make driving difficult. Any fog that does develop should begin to
diminish a few hours after sunrise Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
704 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

TXZ028-033-034-020030-
Hockley TX-Cochran TX-Lamb TX-
704 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cochran, northwestern Hockley and southwestern Lamb Counties through
730 PM CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Morton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...West Texas Mesonet. At 650 PM, a wind gust of 48 mph was
         measured at the mesonet near Morton.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pep.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 10272 3382 10262 3386 10262 3388 10242
      3362 10245 3369 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 270DEG 13KT 3374 10267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SINCAVAGE