Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Westerly surface winds across the South Plains early this afternoon
should back to the south by 21z. Weak inhibition should erode
allowing widely scattered showers/thunder to develop as advertised
by CAMS taking advantage of around 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. Favored area of
concentration according to the HRRR and the 12z Tech WRF run is from
the Caprock Canyon/nrn Rolling Plains region, developing farther
south/southwest along an axis through the central South Plains into
areas S/SW of Lubbock as cap erodes around 21z (4 pm). Given weak
winds aloft and fairly high PWATs (1.3 - 1.7 inches), isolated cells
could produce some brief heavy rain. along with gusty winds and
occasional lightning.

Activity should decrease rapidly with loss of heating around 01-02z
(8-9 pm), although did keep slight chance pops across the SE
Panhandle overnight. Similar situation with slightly less coverage
on Monday, and much less activity across the northeast where pops
fall below mentionable. Temperatures/dewpoints near persistence,
which are also very near climatological averages. James

.LONG TERM...
We'll keep a slight chance of showers and t-storms going Monday
evening, as models continue to show some kind of convectively
induced mesoscale vortmax sliding southwest from the Panhandles
into eastern NM by evening, and this may generate enough lift
despite evening stabilization to maintain any ongoing activity.
Tuesday appears to be mostly dry however, with the upper high in
close proximity and the mid-level moisture plume shunted farther
north into the plains. Tuesday's highs should climb a few degrees
area-wide with mid to upper 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s to
around 103 or 104 in the Rolling Plains.

By Wednesday, the center of the upper-high should be in the
central plains and this should place our forecast area more
squarely under easterly flow aloft. Thus we expect daytime
temperatures to back off some from Tuesday's readings. In
addition, a weak disturbance undercutting the ridge will bring
some mid-level moisture back into the area. The ECMWF is a little
weaker and farther south than the GFS with this westward-moving
wave, and the forecast remains dry for now, but there is a chance
that we might need to raise PoPs across the south.

Beyond Wednesday, the upper-ridge looks like it will expand
south and east, becoming centered roughly over north-central Okla
by Friday. This should bring hot (the heat does not appear
exceptional at this time) and mostly dry weather to the forecast
area to close out July.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

06/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
136 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

TXZ021>044-261845-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
136 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
outlook area this afternoon into this evening, with the most coverage
found over the far southern Panhandle into northern portions of the
South Plains and Rolling Plains. The strongest storms that develop
will be accompanied by frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Slim storm chances will exist Monday afternoon and evening, favoring
the southern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Brief
downpours and strong outflow winds will accompany the most intense
activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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