Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and
tonight at all terminals. VFR conditions should persist through
the period besides when storms move over or near a terminal. A
tempo group has been added to KLBB and KPVW for the most likely
period of TSRA, but confidence was too low to add to KCDS. Surface
winds will remain out of the south to southeast and generally
under 12 kts through the evening. Thunderstorm outflows are
expected to cause changes to the wind speed and direction
overnight. Thunderstorms will be possible once again tomorrow
evening and night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Saturday afternoon, we have seen convective initiation already occur
across the far Southeast TX Panhandle in conjunction with what looks
to be some elevated instability propagating south from persistent t-
storm activity across nrn OK. We are also seeing some convective
towers developing along a surface trough in eastern NM, bending N-
NEwd into the NW TX and western OK Panhandles where a weak
front/outflow boundary reside. Aloft, a weak, convectively-enhanced
vort max can be seen in water vapor imagery from ern KS into the nrn
Okla Panhandle. The influence of this weak perturbation should
assist convective development today within an environment of 1000-
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but very weak wind shear, 850-300mb mean flow
is under 10 kts from the W-NW. There is plentiful deep-layer
moisture though with PWATS in the 1.2 to 1.6 inch range. Through the
remainder of the afternoon we expect coverage of storms to remain
isolated in our forecast area, as storm motion will be generally
southerly, keeping NM activity to our west, while the storms
developing across the NW TX Panhandle will take some time to
organize and begin to march swd. We will also still watch the SE
Panhandle and nrn Rolling Plains counties where we currently have a
few storms.

The latest CAM guidance remains in good agreement that we should see
a disorganized MCS, or broken line of storms, move S-SE through
roughly the western half of the forecast area late tonight, with
perhaps another smaller cluster of storms affecting the NE. With
this activity not expected to move into the area until around
midnight, there is some uncertainty how far it will progress in the
face of a weakening and veering LLJ, and how far to the south and
east we should extend the rain chances. The highest PoPs are in the
southwest Texas Panhandle with the lowest in the southern Rolling
Plains. A threat for locally heavy rainfall remains valid,
especially for the area roughly west of 385 and north of 114 where
the western cluster of storms may tend to stall late tonight. Also,
the strongest storm cores will likely be capable of producing strong
or marginally severe downdraft wind gusts.

Rain chances on Sunday will depend a great deal on how storms evolve
overnight. It is possible that we could see some lingering showers
across the western and northern areas Sunday morning, along with
potential for MCV development. If a MCV does develop, it will likely
drift south or southwest during the day and be a preferred area for
convection to fire Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, a continued moist
and weakly-capped airmass, along with a stronger disturbance
approaching from our north late in the day, should support a chance
of more t-storm activity Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM...
Consensus is getting stronger for the location of the synoptic cold
front pushing south out of the Central Plains into the Southern
Plains region. Not much change from yesterdays output wrt the
amplified ridge over the intermountain west, but the subsequent
troughing to the east is sharper and pushes the cold front through
the Texas Panhandle a little quicker on Monday. The sharpening
trough has increased the signal and confidence for showers and
storms on Tuesday, especially in the Rolling Plains, where deeper
boundary layer moisture resides. The front will also move quicker
than previous runs, with precipitation chances declining more
sharply by early Wednesday. The upper level low wrapping around the
periphery of the amplified upper level high will move farther south
as well. As a result, we'll see less precipitation and cloud cover
than was being anticipated yesterday. As a result, max temperatures
will rebound closer to normal by Friday and Saturday. Wednesday will
still be 5-10 degrees below normal, especially across the southern
South Plains and southern Rolling Plains, where cloud cover and
slight chance POPs remain behind the cold front.

Although rainfall may not be as widespread as previously thought
with the passage of the cold front, PWATs Monday evening through
Tuesday approach 2" at times, so any storms that are able to form
would have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall and localized
flooding over affected locations. Lingering moisture and more stable
environment behind the front may lead to low stratus and/or some fog
developing early Tuesday and Wednesday morning across the southern
South Plains and southern Rolling Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

33/55/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

TXZ021>044-182000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms will be possible
tonight, particularly across southern Texas Panhandle, northern
South Plains and northern Rolling Plains. Locally heavy rain can be
expected, with rain rates up to 1 to 2 inches per hour possible in
the strongest storms. Isolated strong to possibly damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph will be possible as well, but the severe weather threat
is overall low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Improving rain chances the end of the weekend into early next week
also will bring a risk for locally heavy rain and flooding,
especially Monday evening into early Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
556 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

TXZ023-024-172330-
Briscoe TX-Swisher TX-
556 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SWISHER AND
NORTHWESTERN BRISCOE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 556 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Vigo Park, or 13 miles north of Silverton, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vigo Park and Mackenzie Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 10119 3446 10137 3467 10158 3475 10140
      3475 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 050DEG 7KT 3467 10133

WCI/GKendrick

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW MUNCY             34.09N 101.41W
07/15/2021                   FLOYD              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT OF A FEW DOWNED POWER POLES AND A
            SNAPPED FENCE POST. ALSO STATED THAT A PATCH OF GRASS
            AND SUNFLOWERS WERE BENT IN AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
            DIRECTION. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100451

WCI

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