Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
155 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Upper level high pressure system remains parked over southern Nevada
this afternoon keeping the FA in north-northeasterly flow aloft. At
the surface early morning convection has moved out of the area
and now afternoon convection is initiating in far eastern NM. This
convection is currently making a run for the far southwestern FA
counties underneath an SPC severe thunderstorm watch.

Occasional breaks in the clouds will allow high temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 80s and given the continued above average
PWATs, and dewpoints in the 60s convection will likely continue and
spread in coverage. Coverage will be concentrated near and southwest
of a lingering surface boundary hung up from about Muleshoe to about
Jayton. Model forecast instability shows MUCAPEs between 2000 J/kg
to 3000 J/kg, bulk shear values to 35-40kt. DCAPE values of over
1300 J/kg will be present across the far southwestern Southern
Plains resulting in the possibility of strong downburst winds and
gusty outflow winds. Similar to recent storms given the present
instability indices storms that do develop now into the evening
could become strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding.

CAMs continue to suggest that convection will come to an end
during the overnight hours. Tomorrow the 597 dm upper level high
to our west will expand back towards the area as south to
southwesterly surface winds return. This will ultimately lead to
drier and slightly warmer conditions to start the work week.

.LONG TERM...
By Tuesday morning the upper level flow will be less amplified as
the low across the midwest lifts off to the north and the area of
high  pressure across the southwest U.S. continues to retrograde.
Through the day on Tuesday flow aloft will remain northerly which
will keep the forecast area dry. Wednesday will see a shortwave move
across the Northern Plains with upper level lift extending all the
way into northern NM by the evening. This should lead to convective
development across the higher terrain of NM. This activity may try
to make a run towards the southwestern Texas panhandle however it
should be dissipating as it does hence the forecast area may remain
dry. Upper level flow will back across the area out of the
northwest late this week through the weekend as upper level
ridging expands from the desert southwest into Saskatchewan. This
will keep the potential for late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible each day. Temperatures will remain
seasonable during this time frame (low to mid 90's) as heights
aloft vary little each afternoon. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

28/58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
127 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TXZ021>044-121830-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
127 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe rain showers and thunderstorms will continue
through late this evening into early Monday morning across the
extreme southwestern South Plains. Locally heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flash flooding, especially in low lying and poor
drainage areas will be possible. Some of these storms could also be
capable of producing severe wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail,
but the overall severe weather threat will be localized.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another chance for strong thunderstorms remains possible Thursday
into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW SUNDOWN           33.39N 102.61W
07/11/2021  M65 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100441

JGD

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