Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of KPVW and KLBB later
tonight into the early morning hours, then if organized enough, move
east toward KCDS around for the hours surrounding sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Focus this afternoon is on the potential for an MCS to move to the
east/southeast across the forecast this evening and overnight.
Storms currently going up on the Raton Mesa southward toward Clines
Corners with some cumulus bubbling west of Clayton and from south of
Clines Corners southeastward toward Roswell. General movement of
these convective elements is to the south/southeast, but as some
congealing of outflow increases and organization further increases,
a turn to east/southeast is expected. Some potential for additional
development late afternoon to early evening further east into the
western Panhandle and western South Plains per some models, although
low level flow is light and disorganized with no current zone
favored for convective initiation. Given wide range in model
solutions and the disorganized low level flow (at least until the
low level jet develops later tonight), confidence in how widespread
thunderstorms and their duration still relatively low. Will hold
higher precip chances in the chance category at this time.

Looking forward to Monday afternoon and its precip chances, models
are in even more disagreement likely in large part to an upper ridge
building northward over what has been the primary initiation zone of
eastern New Mexico and western South Plains/Panhandle. Secondarily,
low level flow remains a problem with uncertainty after lingering
outflow boundary or not and how far the dryline or surface
confluence is able to shift with potential for veering low level
flow in the western zones underneath the building ridge. These two
features would shift initiation zone eastward toward the I-27
corridor, assuming initiation occurs. The latter is not straight-
forward with the CAM's and hi-res models favoring over the global
models and WRF-NAM. Will take the inherited slight chance and shift
eastward to generally cover the eastern 3/4 of the forecast area for
the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM...
Any storms that develop tomorrow evening will be pushing east of the
FA by midnight tomorrow night. The weather pattern becomes overall
quiet starting Tuesday as the upper high moves over the region. The
overall affect will be mostly dry conditions (minus a possible pop-
up shower or two) and hot temps. Temps near/over 100F are expected
by Tuesday afternoon with highs over 100F possible area wide
Thursday the high remains overhead and thicknesses increase. Models
have finally come into more of an agreement with the high
temporarily weakening by late week as an upper trough across the
northwestern US pushes eastward across the Northern Plains. This
passing upper trough could push a weak front into the region by late
Saturday/early Sunday allowing for some precip under the center of
the high. If some precip does develop it could help lower highs a
few degrees as the upper high continues to build to near 595Dm.
Little change is expected going into early next week as the upper
high looks to remain in place and amplify slightly going into
Monday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

55/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

TXZ021>044-071615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across eastern New Mexico this
afternoon and are expected to organize into a convective system.
These thunderstorms will move to the southeast into western sections
of the South Plains and the extreme southwestern Panhandle this
evening and eastward toward the I-27 corridor and points east
overnight. These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
hail to the size of quarters, wind gusts to 65 mph, and heavy
rainfall. The severe threat is expected to decrease overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A risk of severe weather will exist on Monday, Friday, and Saturday
during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

TXZ040-041-070430-
Terry TX-Lynn TX-
1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LYNN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Brownfield, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Moore and Wellman.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3296 10250 3316 10241 3306 10187 3296 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 292DEG 22KT 3303 10234

WCI