Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...
The active period of weather continues across West Texas today.
The first round will be a linear feature moving out of the Texas
Panhandle early this morning. Have increases POPs before sunrise
to account for this likelihood. Evident in the system appears to
be an MCV trying to get going across Deaf Smith county as of
130AM. A pressure perturbation out ahead of the line is generating
a few showers in advance of the main system. Just how long this
feature will stay together is a good question, but it wouldn't be
surprising for it to move much of the way through the CWFA by
sunrise.

This morning's activity is being driven by positively tilted trough
axis extending from the eastern Ontario into southwest Texas.
Out to our southwest, a closed low is evident across Baja
California. As the day progresses, mid-level flow will largely
remain northwesterly before transitioning toward northerly flow on
Thursday morning. By in large, presuming the morning convection
works through the area, this should help stabilize the atmosphere
to some degree and should decrease rain chances until daytime
heating sparks some scattered activity late this afternoon. CAPE
of around 2kJ looks to be reasonable, as indicated in some of the
forecast soundings along with about 30 KTS of bulk shear. However,
the sub-cloud layer wind fields are very anemic (below about
750 mb) and quite dry to boot. Hail doesn't look to be too much
of a threat this afternoon, but downburst winds do and we'll call
for 65 mph gusts in the HWO. This initial activity should wane
with the loss of daytime heating. However, at the same time, a
line of convection should become established along the Pecos River
Valley and move eastward during the evening. It appears the
southwestern South Plains will have the best shot at getting
another dose of rainfall as it moves out of NM. Instability should
remain moderate above the low level inversion. This should allow
the system to remain intact as it propagates through the region
exiting the CWFA perhaps around 07Z if all goes according to plan.
This rarely happens in reality, but it's a good faith effort.
Forecast soundings would suggest the evening/overnight activity
should be more of a rain event rather than severe given strong
decoupling of the boundary layer and a rather ectomorphic CAPE
profile.

.LONG TERM...
Little change has been necessitated for this morning's forecast
package as the previous assessments remain largely on track. A
cutoff low, now centered over Baja California, will gradually drift
eastward throughout the end of the work week as a high-amplitude,
mid/upper-level ridge builds into the western U.S. A weak vorticity
lobe is forecast to rotate equatorward along the southern stream
portion of the ridge axis, resulting in diurnally-driven convection
across portions of the South and Rolling Plains on Thursday a
afternoon. Deep- and cloud-layer flow is expected to be weak,
with small, compact hodographs favoring single- and multi-cellular
storm characteristics. The potential for storms becoming severe
on Thursday is low; however, a rogue gust up to 50 kt and hail up
to 1" in diameter will be possible given the presence of a modest
EML of around 1,500 J/kg and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer.

The potential for convection remains low throughout the weekend as
the lack of any viable surface convergence amidst weak synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent precludes organized development. While the
boundary-layer will be quite moist over the weekend with a diffuse
dryline developing across eastern New Mexico, it is forecast to
remain anchored along the Mescalero escarpment due to the former
statement (i.e. weak large-scale forcing as the broad, cutoff low
moves east into the southern Great Plains preventing propagation
of the dryline despite ample heating). A gradual increase in
geopotential heights is expected heading into early next week as a
sub-tropical ridge builds into the southwestern Great Plains,
with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the
early and middle portions of next week.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

26/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
202 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TXZ021>044-030715-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
202 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will have the potential to
become severe with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 65
mph. A lesser risk of severe thunderstorms will also occur late this
evening into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon and evening will focus on
areas near the New Mexico state line. Some of these storms could be
severe, capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph and large
hail around quarter size. Thunderstorm chances, some possibly severe,
remain in the forecast for through the weekend across the Rolling
Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
241 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TXZ022>025-028-029-020815-
Briscoe TX-Hall TX-Swisher TX-Castro TX-Lamb TX-Hale TX-
241 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HALE...WEST CENTRAL
HALL...CASTRO...SWISHER...NORTHERN BRISCOE AND NORTHEASTERN LAMB
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Wayside to 4 miles east
of Happy to 4 miles southeast of Easter. Movement was southeast at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tulia, Dimmitt, Hart, Silverton, Kress, Happy, Vigo Park, Easter,
Claytonville, Mackenzie Reservoir and Nazareth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10085 3437 10153 3422 10229 3464 10247
      3475 10195 3475 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 319DEG 34KT 3487 10135 3472 10179 3461 10233

SINCAVAGE