Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

.AVIATION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed just west
of KLBB and KPVW with activity slowly edging to the east,
expected to pass over both these airports still between about 01Z
and 04Z this evening. Storms should reach KCDS slightly later,
between about 03Z and 06Z tonight. Hail will accompany the
stronger storms as well as locally strong and variable outflow
wind gusts. The airmass is also very moist and storm cloud bases
likely to drop near or into MVFR heights while visibilities from
locally heavy rain also will be in the MVFR range and possibly
briefly lower. Storms should clear to the east of the area by
early Tuesday and lower atmosphere will be recently overturned and
low level wind flow quite disrupted. But airmass will remain very
moist in the lower levels and as south to southeasterly flow
redevelops very well may lead to areas of MVFR ceilings by
daybreak Tuesday, as has become the norm in the past couple weeks.
Any lower clouds likely to lift and mix by midday Tuesday leading
to VFR with a scattered afternoon cloud base. Preliminary
coverage of thunderstorms late Tuesday likely to be less than
today. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021/

SHORT TERM...
An active weather period is expected this evening and tonight as
thunderstorms, some severe, are projected to impact much of the CWA.
Synoptically, the area remains situated between an upper low
centered over Saskatchewan and an upper ridge over the Tennessee
Valley. Consequently, southwesterly flow is present above 700 mb,
with southeasterly low level flow courtesy of a weak lee cyclone to
our west and broad surface high pressure to our east over the Deep
South. The dryline is currently positioned over eastern NM, with
southwesterly surface winds behind it. An impressive reservoir of
moisture has built up in the low levels east of the dryline thanks
to several days of southeasterly surface flow and persistent
moisture advection. West Texas Mesonet observations place surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across much of the region this
afternoon. 12z PWATs of 1.03" and 0.87" were sampled at MAF and AMA,
respectively, this morning, and are expected to increase this
afternoon. FWD sampled a PWAT of 1.80" at 12z, indicating the deep
moisture present in our vicinity. Analysis of water vapor imagery
depicts respectable moisture wrapping around the western edge of the
upper ridge, with a shortwave and associated lift visible rotating
through the higher terrain of northern Mexico.

Skies have cleared along and west of I-27/US-87, and temperatures
have already warmed into the low 80s. Forecast soundings for this
afternoon depict a very unstable atmosphere, with upwards of 2000
J/kg of CAPE nearly universal in our region. SPC mesoanalysis even
shows an area of >3000 J/kg CAPE edging into our southern counties
where heating and moisture have been most robust thus far. Another
notable feature about this setup is that there is very little
convective inhibition present. However, upper level flow remains
weak in magnitude overall, with 0-6 km shear barely reaching 25 kt.
Nevertheless, given the deep moisture in place combined with the
approaching upper level energy, the environment is still highly
supportive of severe thunderstorms over the CWA this evening and
tonight.

Late this afternoon, convection is expected to fire in eastern NM in
the vicinity of the dryline where surface convergence magnitudes are
largest. These storms may initially be discrete in nature, and given
the ample instability, severe hail is possible across the western
South Plains and southwest Panhandle late this afternoon. With time,
this activity is expected to merge into a more coherent line and
propagate eastward, becoming more cold-pool driven as it progresses
through the central South Plains late this evening and into the
Rolling Plains tonight. The threat for significant damaging wind
gusts near 70 mph will exist with these storms, along with heavy
rainfall and the potential for flooding given the current moisture
levels. Storms will exit the area to the east early Tuesday morning.

West Texas will remain under southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday,
with weak embedded impulses transiting overhead. At the surface, the
dryline is expected to mix further east, with southeasterly winds
and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s persisting east of the
dryline. This sets the stage for another day of possible convection
and severe weather in the vicinity of the dryline, though the
details will be highly dependent on the evolution of the overnight
convection. /DWK

LONG TERM...
Overall things continue to look active through the next week with
convective chances possible most days. Convection should be pushing
to the east of the FA by early tomorrow evening as upper riding
moves overhead. This will be followed by southwesterly flow aloft
Wednesday. Some convection is possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening as the upper flow remains divergent, but the main limiting
factor will be an overall lack of surface forcing as the dryline
remains mostly to our west. Despite this some convection will still
be possible especially if there are any remnant surface boundaries
across the FA. By Thursday a weak front associated with an upper
level shortwave moving across the northern CONUS will approach the
region by likely not make it (mostly) through. The front will likely
aid in developing convection across the region by Thursday evening.
Another spot for convective development Thursday will be a dryline
across the western half of the FA. Models begin to diverge with the
upper pattern by Friday with the GFS keeping things mostly quiet
under an upper ridge and with the ECMWF keeping mostly zonal flow
with some embedded shortwaves producing convection. By Saturday both
models have an upper ridge over the region with dryline convection
pushing through Saturday evening/night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1116 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ021>044-251630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1116 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon across the western South Plains and southwest Texas
Panhandle. These storms will then move eastward, affecting the
central and eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains this evening and
tonight.

This afternoon, storms may be severe with hail up to ping pong ball
size and wind gusts to 65 mph. Later tonight, storms may also be
severe with hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph.
Heavy rainfall is likely and will likely lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

From Tuesday through Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible every
afternoon and evening. These storms may be severe, with heavy rain
and flooding also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1055 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

TXZ025-031-032-035>038-041>044-250445-
Dickens TX-Motley TX-Hall TX-Kent TX-King TX-Crosby TX-Cottle TX-
Lynn TX-Stonewall TX-Lubbock TX-Garza TX-
1055 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KENT...SOUTHEASTERN
LUBBOCK...NORTHEASTERN LYNN...DICKENS...GARZA...WESTERN KING...
CROSBY...COTTLE...EASTERN MOTLEY...SOUTHEASTERN HALL AND NORTHWESTERN
STONEWALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1055 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles east of Northfield to 11 miles west of
Paducah to 4 miles southwest of Dumont to 5 miles south of Dickens to
6 miles southwest of Slaton. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Slaton, Post, Crosbyton, Spur, Paducah, Dickens, Guthrie, White
River Lake, Ralls, Ransom Canyon, Kalgary, Girard, Grassland, Cee
Vee, Grow, Northfield, Delwin, Chalk and Afton.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of and northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3352 10187 3363 10155 3380 10106 3394 10078
      3412 10070 3447 10066 3434 10042 3431 10042
      3431 10036 3421 10016 3382 10016 3353 10027
      3333 10051 3304 10159
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 309DEG 18KT 3430 10050 3404 10050 3377 10059
3354 10083 3337 10173

WCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1055 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW WHITE RIVER LAKE   33.53N 101.17W
05/24/2021  M61 MPH          CROSBY             TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100343

MCONDER