Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Lubbock, TX

947 
WWUS54 KLUB 162220
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
520 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXC191-162230-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-210816T2315Z/
Hall TX-
520 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN HALL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3444 10093 3464 10093 3470 10063 3436 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 268DEG 17KT 3449 10073 

$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
213 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms already ongoing and fairly numerous across the Texas
Panhandle in proximity to an upper level short wave trough located
from the Great Lakes to the Panhandle. Meanwhile, further south,
some isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Rolling Plains
in a zone of surface confluence with additional isolated
thunderstorms forming across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin in an area of weak capping and midlevel monsoonal moisture. Hi-
res models show little agreement with development and evolution of
the precipitation fields this afternoon and tonight, which is not
terribly surprising given the relative weakness to the forcing apart
from the upper trough. In general, think that chance category PoPs
will suffice for tonight to start given the lack of clarity from the
models. With the upper trough progged to move slowly to the
southeast through tonight and Tuesday, the extreme southeastern
Panhandle and Rolling Plains may be more in play to get
thunderstorms than previously anticipated, and have upped PoPs some
there. Will then begin to trim PoPs from north to south with time
from late tonight into Tuesday morning as the trough moves further
east. By Tuesday afternoon, the departing upper trough should allow
for the deeper monsoonal moisture to move back over a larger part of
the forecast with chance PoPs looking reasonable Tuesday afternoon
given the increased moisture and weak capping.

.LONG TERM...
There has been a subtle shift to the south for precipiation chances
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the upper level trough overhead
sharpening and becoming more positively tilted, though the highest
POPs remain over the southern Rolling Plains. This same upper level
trough lifts north somewhat on Thursday, stuck between the area of
high pressure building to the north of what will be left of Fred,
and strengthening closed low in the intermountain west. Deep
boundary layer moisture will remain in place for Thursday with
increased instability late Thursday afternoon and evening. The GFS
continues to show upwards of 2000 J/Kg, with the NAM indicating a
peak as high as 2500 J/Kg early Thursday evening in the southern
South Plains. There will be a chance for strong to marginially
severe wind gusts from outflow where storms are able to initiate.
Locations on the Caprock will have slightly cooler air aloft to work
with, while the Rolling Plains will have deeper surface
moisture/convergence. It's too early to pinpoint attm exactly where
the strongest convection will develop.

The upper level trough associated with the Pacific Low sweeps E/NE
Thursday night with drier air gradually mixing down to the surface
through the day Friday. PWATS will drop below 1.25" for the first
time in awhile, though slight chance POPs linger into Saturday
afternoon as the upper level trough drags east. The Bermuda High
centers itself over Texarkana for the end of the weend into the
beginning of next week, providing warmer tempertures but holding off
precip chances well to our west.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07/55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

TXZ021>044-170800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and tonight. The stronger storms are not expected to be
severe, but will bring the possibility of wind gusts to 55 mph.
Localized heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with
some storms because of their slow movement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible much of the week with the highest
probabilities and areal coverage on Tuesday. On any particular day,
if storms develop they will likely be slow moving and bring the
potential for heavy rain with localized flooding concerns.