Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Lubbock, TX

354 
WWUS54 KLUB 262242
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
542 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC445-501-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-Yoakum TX-
542 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTIES...

At 541 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Tokio, or 11 miles northwest of Seagraves, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 10277 3321 10272 3321 10238 3296 10249
      3296 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 286DEG 11KT 3310 10264 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

359 
WWUS54 KLUB 262245
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
545 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC445-501-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-Yoakum TX-
545 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTIES...

At 544 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Tokio, or 11 miles north of Seagraves, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 10274 3321 10267 3321 10238 3296 10249
      3296 10261 3302 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 283DEG 11KT 3310 10263 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

386 
WWUS54 KLUB 262246
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC445-501-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-Yoakum TX-
546 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTIES...

At 545 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Tokio, or 11 miles north of Seagraves, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 539 PM was reported nine miles 
         southwest of Tokio.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 10274 3321 10267 3321 10238 3296 10249
      3296 10261 3302 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 283DEG 11KT 3310 10262 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

664 
WWUS54 KLUB 262254
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
554 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC445-501-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-Yoakum TX-
554 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTIES...

At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Seagraves, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 539 PM, one inch hail was reported 
         nine miles southwest of Tokio.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 10271 3321 10265 3321 10238 3296 10249
      3296 10261 3302 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 299DEG 17KT 3305 10260 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

296 
WWUS54 KLUB 262301
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
601 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC445-501-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-Yoakum TX-
601 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTIES...

At 600 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Seagraves, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 539 PM, quarter size hail was reported 
         nine miles southwest of Tokio.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 10268 3321 10265 3321 10238 3296 10249
      3296 10260 3302 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 307DEG 13KT 3304 10259 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

487 
WWUS54 KLUB 262308
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC501-262318-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Yoakum TX-
608 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOAKUM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3296 10259 3321 10260 3321 10238 3296 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 290DEG 15KT 3305 10254 

$$

TXC445-262330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-210626T2330Z/
Terry TX-
608 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERRY COUNTY...

At 608 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Seagraves Airport, or 7 miles north of Seagraves, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tokio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10259 3321 10260 3321 10238 3296 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 290DEG 15KT 3305 10254 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Scattered severe thunderstorms and a risk for heavy/flooding rain
are at the center of today's forecast. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the entire CWA, valid from 6 pm this evening to 5 am on
Sunday.

An approaching positively tilted trough, surface boundaries and
abundant moisture will be the drivers behind tonight's active
weather. Aloft, decent southwesterly flow (around 30 knots at 500
mb) for late June is in place downstream of a broad trough extending
from the Upper Midwest through the Four Corners. A subtle
disturbance rounding the base of the trough over NM will emerge over
the region this evening. Before then, as weak frontal boundary
divides temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s across the southern
Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains from upper 80s and lower
90s across our southern zones. This effective frontal zone stalled
earlier and even retreated a bit, but is now seen on radar sagging
slowly southward from a Plains to Abernathy to Matador line as of
1915Z. This boundary could be the focus for isolated to widely
scattered storm development through the late afternoon hours, though
coverage with this is somewhat uncertain. Higher confidence exists
in CI along the dryline from southeast NM into the western Permian
Basin late this afternoon. This activity will develop east and
northeastward and move into at least our southern counties this
evening. MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-
50 knots will certainly support a severe threat with any robust
convection within the warm sector south of the front and east of the
dryline. Supercell and multicell modes will be capable of damaging
winds and pockets of large hail early on before growing upscale this
evening. In addition, PWATs ranging from around 1" near the TX/NM
line to >1.5" in the Rolling Plains will fuel intense rainfall rates
and the risk for flooding and flash flooding.

Additional thunderstorms already getting underway across the
higher terrain of NM will propagate east and southeastward and
will bring the risk for more heavy rain (and strong to damaging
winds) moving into the South Plains region late this evening. Some
of this rain could fall on spots that received heavy rain early
this morning across our northern counties. Although not everyone
will experience heavy rain between late this afternoon and Sunday
morning, many locations will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with isolated totals of 5+ inches possible. Hence, the reason for
the Flood Watch, valid from 23Z to 10Z.

The effective frontal zone will advance southward tonight, securing
lows mostly in the lower to middle 60s by Sunday morning. The post-
frontal air and plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler
tomorrow, with highs only in the 70s to lower 80s. The atmosphere
will remain moist on Sunday, and could support additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as another weak embedded disturbance aloft
approaches. However, much more limited heating (and instability) and
weaker flow aloft than today will tend to limit storm intensity.
Even so, there could be pockets of slow-moving heavy rain, and
depending on how tonight plays out, additional flood highlights may
be needed.

.LONG TERM...
Minimal changes to the long term forecast this afternoon. Upper
level pattern will be characterized by an Omega block across the
Pacific Northwest into southwestern Canada through the middle of the
week. This will keep upper level troughing in place across the
forecast area. Even when the block breaks down it will take a while
for the upper level troughing to be displaced eastward hence
troughing will remain in place through the end of the week.
Currently appears that the surface cold front should be just south
of the area by Sunday evening. As the LLJ increases this should lead
to additional moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across at least
the southern row of counties as warm air advection occurs over the
surface boundary. However, where exactly the front ends up after
today's convection will be the main driver as to where the
heaviest rainfall will occur Sunday night into Monday morning.
Mesoscale details will be affected by each round of precipitation
hence details are a bit blurry the farther out in time you go.
However, with upper level support remaining in place along with
anomalously high PWAT values additional shower and thunderstorm
chances will hang around for much of the extended forecast
although this does not mean the entire period will be a wash out.
With the cloud cover and precipitation this will also help to
keep temperatures below average for much of the upcoming week. An
additional cold front appears to approach the area towards the end
of the upcoming week which may be the focus for another round of
rainfall for the area. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
TXZ021>044.

&&

23/58

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ021>044-271545-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
South Plains region late this afternoon. The initial activity will
be capable of producing wind gusts to 75 mph, hail to the size of
golf balls and very heavy rain. A tornado or two may also be possible
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The thunderstorm
activity is expected to increase in coverage through the evening and
overnight hours. The greatest threat with this activity will be very
heavy rain and the risk for flash flooding, though damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail may accompany the most intense cells. A
Flood Watch is in effect for the entire South Plains region from 6 PM
this evening until 5 AM Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rain is possible Sunday across the region which may lead to
flooding. Additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
will continue through the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.