Heat Advisory 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

586 
WWUS74 KLUB 231922
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

TXZ021-022-027-028-240200-
/O.CON.KLUB.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210624T0200Z/
Parmer-Castro-Bailey-Lamb-
Including the cities of Friona, Bovina, Farwell, Dimmitt, Hart, 
Muleshoe, Littlefield, Amherst, and Olton
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Temperatures up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...Castro, Lamb, Parmer and Bailey Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...
An upper level ridge will be centered directly overhead today
bringing even more heat to the region. Thickness values will
increase around 30-40m over yesterday. This will result in a healthy
jump in surface temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will
likely approach advisory levels of 105F in the extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle prompting the issuance of a heat advisory. An
uncharacteristically strong surface lee trough for late June will
develop this afternoon extending from southeastern Colorado through
southeastern New Mexico. Breezy southerly winds will develop from
this surface pressure troughing. With the ridge overhead, there will
not be much if any at all in the way of large scale ascent. The
surface troughing will create weak low level convergence mid to late
afternoon from the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle south-
southwestward into the southwest South Plains. Despite the expanding
ridge, this may be enough to generate very isolated thunderstorm
activity. A very deeply mixed atmosphere will exist on the caprock
this afternoon with limited amounts of instability. Deeply mixed
parcels have CAPEs on the order of only around 500 J/kg with very
little shear. This will mostly create a downburst wind potential
with any storms that do develop.

.LONG TERM...
The upper high over the region will begin to flatten tomorrow as
upper troughing pushes southward from Canada. This will do little at
the present to bring relief from hot temps tomorrow or Friday, but
the weakening high will allow for increased convective chances
tomorrow evening along a weak surface front. Models are in decent
agreement with having a weak front move into at least our
northwestern zones which would be along the edge of the upper high.
An embedded shortwave would allow for lift along the front. The only
propagation of storms beyond that point will be along outflow as
upper flow will be too weak to support much movement. By Friday
upper flow will become more zonal as the upper trough continues
eroding the upper high. This will bring a cold front southward
across the Central Plains Friday which will bring a change for the
better. The GFS is slightly faster than the ECMWF with having the
front through the FA by late Saturday morning vs late Saturday
afternoon. The timing of the front will ultimately determine how
warm highs will be Saturday. They will ultimately be cooler Sunday
with highs dropping to the low/mid 80s. Along with cooler temps the
cold front will bring very decent chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to continue into
at least mid next week as shortwaves embedded in the main upper
trough situated over the Mid West across the West Texas region
providing upper level lift for precip development.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ021-022-027-028.

&&

01/51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
313 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

TXZ021>044-240815-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
313 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

High temperatures this afternoon across the extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle are expected to be around 105 degrees. A heat
advisory is in effect for this area. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and western
South Plains late this afternoon. An isolated wind gust to 60 mph
will be possible with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Triple digit heat will continue Thursday with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning to the region Friday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.