Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Los Angeles, CA

398 
WHUS76 KLOX 271501
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
801 AM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021

PZZ650-272315-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0031.210327T2200Z-210328T0400Z/
East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA
including Santa Cruz Island-
801 AM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. 
  Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

823 
WHUS76 KLOX 272110
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
210 PM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021

PZZ650-280400-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0031.210327T2200Z-210328T0400Z/
East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA
including Santa Cruz Island-
210 PM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. 
  Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-676-281200-
/O.NEW.KLOX.GL.A.0012.210329T2200Z-210330T0400Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
210 PM PDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and
  combined seas 8 to 11 feet possible when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...Portions of the coastal waters of southwest 
  California. 

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Potentially strong winds may create dangerous sea 
  conditions which could capsize or damage small and large 
  vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and combined
seas.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
932 PM PDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...26/736 PM.

Warming temperatures and offshore flow will continue through the
weekend. It will be cooler early next week, then much warmer
again later in the week. There will be gusty northerly wind at
times Monday and Tuesday then moderate to strong Santa Ana winds
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...26/929 PM.

The latest satellite imagery shows an upper-level ridge of high
pressure building in over the region this evening. Low clouds
continue to pull away from the coast this evening and a clear to
mostly clear night is looking on tap. In wind-sheltered areas,
clearer skies will make for a chilly night as radiative cooling
processes will be more efficient. Overnight low temperatures were
ticked downward in some location where calm winds and clear skies
will combine for a cold night.

Otherwise, offshore flow beneath high pressure aloft will develop
a warming and drying trend through the weekend. Daytime
temperatures well above normal will develop for Saturday and
Sunday. Santa Ana winds should be kept at bay for the most part,
but there is a chance an advisory may be needed for portions of
the Los Angeles and Ventura on Saturday morning. Both local WRF
solutions and 00Z NAM-WRF solutions do develop a brief period of
near advisory level winds around daybreak Saturday.

No additional updates to the forecast are expected at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

The ridge will peak Sat night with H5 heights up to 582 dm or so,
then a weak upper level trof over the E Pac will move toward the
region on Sun, dropping H5 heights to around 579-581 dm in the
afternoon. Mostly clear skies will continue across the region thru
Sun. Offshore flow will prevail for many areas Sat night into Sun
morning, with breezy to gusty NE winds remaining below Advisory
levels. The offshore flow will contribute to even warmer temps on
Sun to about 7-14 deg above normal for many areas away from the
immediate coast. Highs in the warmest inland coastal areas and
vlys should reach the upper 70s to upper 80s.

The E Pac upper level trof will move inland over the region Sun
night followed by a broad NW flow aloft on Mon. There should be
patchy low clouds and fog along parts of the Central Coast Sun
night, otherwise mostly clear skies will continue thru Mon across
the region. Gusty NW-N winds are expected on Mon across SLO/SBA
Counties and interior VTU/L.A. Counties including the Antelope
Vly. Advisory-level wind gusts will also be possible Mon afternoon
along the Central Coast. Temps will turn about 4-6 deg cooler
most areas, but still be 5-10 deg above normal away from the
immediate coast. Highs in the warmest vlys and inland coastal
areas on Mon are forecast to be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/144 PM.

The GFS and EC deterministic and mean ensembles are in generally
good agreement during the extended period. A broad NW flow aloft
will persist over CA Mon night and Tue. Upper level ridging will
build in from the E Pac on Wed. An upper level low well SW of the
forecast area will move NE and approach the srn CA coast Wed night
and Thu. It looks like this system will move E and inland over
far srn CA and nrn Baja on Fri, with weak upper level ridging
moving into swrn CA by afternoon.

Mostly clear skies are expected thru the extended, altho there is a
small chance of low clouds along the L.A. County coast Mon night
into Tue morning. It also looks like a moderate to potentially
strong Santa Ana wind event may take place Tue night into Wed as
offshore gradients are forecast to peak then, especially with the EC
(LAX-DAG -7.2 mb at 12Z and 18Z Wed). Gusty northeast winds perhaps
to moderate strength will be possible Wed night into Thu as well.
Temps are expected to be above normal thru the extended, with the
coolest day Tue (3-8 deg above normal) and warmest day Thu (8-18 deg
above normal) when highs could reach the mid 80s to around 90 for
the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas over VTU/L.A. Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0431Z.

At 03Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast. VFR conditions are
expected through the period. There is a low to moderate chance of
low-level wind shear and turbulence through 20Z at terminals south
of Point Conception.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
low (20 percent) chance of low-level wind shear and turbulence
through 16Z. Any easterly winds will be 7 knots or less.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
moderate (30-40 percent) chance of low-level wind shear and
turbulence through 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/808 PM.

Across the outer waters... Winds and seas will be elevated
this evening but will remain below SCA level. Winds will increase
to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level late Sunday and will likely
continue through Tuesday, with a forty percent chance of Gale
force winds on Monday. Seas will likely be SCA level Monday night
and Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions will be below SCA level.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal... Winds will likely be
SCA level on Monday. Otherwise, conditions will be below SCA
level.

Across the inner waters south of Point Conception... There is a
forty percent chance of SCA level northeast winds along the coast
from Ventura to Santa Monica Saturday morning and a thirty
percent chance of SCA level west winds across the SBA Channel
Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely be SCA level
across all of the inner waters on Monday. Otherwise and elsewhere,
conditions will be below SCA level.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Gusty north to northwest winds are possible on Monday night.
There is a chance of a moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Gusty northeast winds may persist
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

PUBLIC...Hall/Sirard
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Kj
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles