High Surf Advisory 18, NWS Los Angeles, CA

447 
WHUS46 KLOX 140534
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
934 PM PST Mon Dec 13 2021

CAZ034-035-141345-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
934 PM PST Mon Dec 13 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10-13 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Central Coast and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ039-141345-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.211214T1200Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
934 PM PST Mon Dec 13 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM
PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County South Coast.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ040-041-087-141345-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.211214T1200Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
934 PM PST Mon Dec 13 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM
PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet with max sets to 10 
  feet and dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Ventura County Coast, Los Angeles County Coast and 
  Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught
in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the
current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If
unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

203 
WHUS46 KLOX 141311
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
511 AM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

CAZ034-035-142230-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
511 AM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10-13 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Central Coast and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ039-142230-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
511 AM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County South Coast.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ040-041-087-142230-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
511 AM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet with max sets to 10 
  feet and dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Ventura County Coast, Los Angeles County Coast and 
  Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught
in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the
current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If
unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

904 
WHUS46 KLOX 142227
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
227 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

CAZ034-035-150600-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
227 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 10-13 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Central Coast and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ039-150630-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
227 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County South Coast.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ040-041-087-150630-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
227 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet with max sets to 10 
  feet and dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Ventura County Coast, Los Angeles County Coast and 
  Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught
in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the
current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If
unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

Sweet

635 
WHUS46 KLOX 150617
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1017 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

CAZ034-035-151430-
/O.EXP.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.SU.Y.0019.211215T0617Z-211216T0000Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
1017 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 9 to 12 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Central Coast and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ039-151430-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
1017 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County South Coast.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ040-041-087-151430-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
1017 PM PST Tue Dec 14 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet and dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Ventura County Coast, Los Angeles County Coast and 
  Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and 
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught
in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the
current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If
unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

Phillips

345 
WHUS46 KLOX 151017
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 AM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

CAZ034-035-151830-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
217 AM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 9 to 12 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Central Coast and Santa Barbara 
  County Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ039-151830-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
217 AM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet with dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County South Coast.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions, or stay
near occupied lifeguard towers. Rock jetties can be deadly in
such conditions, stay off the rocks.

&&

$$

CAZ040-041-087-151830-
/O.CON.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
217 AM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet and dangerous rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Ventura County Coast, Los Angeles County Coast and 
  Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large
  breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches and
  rocks, and capsize small boats near shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area...producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught
in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the
current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If
unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

Lund

994 
WHUS46 KLOX 152148
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
148 PM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

CAZ034-035-152300-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SU.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
148 PM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Max sets to near 10 feet are still possible through this evening.

$$

CAZ039-152300-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-
148 PM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet is still possible into tonight.

$$

CAZ040-041-087-152300-
/O.EXP.KLOX.SU.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2200Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
148 PM PST Wed Dec 15 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

Elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet is still possible into tonight.

$$

Sweet

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1127 AM PST Mon Dec 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...12/941 PM.

A strong storm system will slowly move over the region through
Tuesday. Rain, heavy at times, and high elevation snow will
develop through Monday night as the storm moves down the state.
Gusty and potentially damaging winds are expected over the area
through Tuesday. Another weak storm system will affect the region
Thursday followed by dry weather next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...13/822 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate mostly cloudy
skies across the entire district this morning. Doppler radar
indicates some light rain moving across the Central Coast (mainly
SLO county) with totals under 0.10 inches. As for winds,
southeasterly winds are developing with gusts up to 40 MPH in the
hills of the Central Coast.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, latest model data
indicates everything still on track. Rain will gradually increase
through the day north of Point Conception. South of Point
Conception, some light warm-frontal type of rain will develop
later this morning and continue through the afternoon. Through the
afternoon, do not anticipate any significant hydrologic issues.
Along with the rain, southeasterly winds will continue to increase
across the area. Winds will increase to advisory levels north of
Point Conception today with winds climbing to warning levels this
evening across the mountains and interior valleys. South of Point
Conception, the winds will start ramping up late this evening.
Please see LAXNPWLOX for the current info about the various wind
products.

Overall, forecast looks to have good handle on the immediate short
term. For the afternoon forecast, attention will turn to the main
part of the rain event with moderate to heavy rain tonight and
Tuesday. Previous discussion below covers the details very well.
Barring any dramatic changes in the model solutions, main
decision for the afternoon forecast will be the need for a Flash
Flood Watch for the burn areas in LA county.

***From Previous Discussion***

Today will be the warm up for the main storm event Tuesday. A cold
506 dam upper low west of Seattle is spinning a slow moving
atmospheric river over the center of the state. The system will
slowly sag to south this morning and rain will likely develop over
most of SLO and SBA counties. South of Pt Conception there may be
a stray shower or two that develops in the warm air advection
zone. This afternoon very strong winds will develop ahead of the
front across SLO and SBA county. 45 mph gusts are likely across
the coasts and Santa Ynez Vly while the interior will likely see
60 mph gusts. Please the product LAXNPWLOX for details. Rainfall
amounts today will likely be under a quarter inch except for the
areas north of Morro Bay where over 2 inches of rain could fall.
Cloudy skies will keep the lid on max temps and hold them to mid
and upper 50s.

The real action will start tonight as a powerful jet dives down
the backside of the low and tilts the main moisture plume into a
classic cold frontal configuration. Strong south winds ahead of
the front will impinge on the W/E facing Santa Ynez range and
produce heavy rain. By dawn the heavy rain will have shifted to
Ventura county and western LA county. Advisory level winds will
develop across the coasts and vly of VTA and LA county. Warning
level winds will develop across the mtns along with rain and
resort level snow. A winter storm warning has been issued for the
LA/VTA mtns where travel will become dangerous and close to
impossible above 7000 ft. Please the product LAXWSWLOX for the
winter weather details. As the strong winds ride over the San
Gabriel mtns they will then descend into the Antelope Vly and
create warning level gusts between 60 and 65 mph. The strongest
rainfall rates will occur in the predawn hours over the Santa Ynez
range 1 inch per hour rates are likely which might be enough to
to create debris flows in and around the Alisal burn scar region
where a flash flood watch has been issued.

All systems go for a strong and impactful storm to move into
southwest California later tonight and hang around through
Tuesday. Primary adjustment today was to speed up the arrival of
the heavier rain by as much as 6 hours due to input from the
high res models. This shifts the heavier rain period back to
Monday into Monday evening for SLO County, the overnight hours
Monday night for most of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, and
late Monday night into Tuesday morning for LA County. There's
still a chance of some light showers during the day Monday across
LA/Ventura Counties and with some cold air still in place there
could be some light snow accumulations above 5000' before warmer
air advects in from the south.

Thunderstorms were added on an earlier forecast update cycle and
given the jet dynamics it certainly can't be ruled out, though
forecast soundings still show a sizable inversion around 13,000'
that should limit vertical growth. Either way, this is a very
dynamic system with strong low level forcing so periods of very
heavy rain are possible with or without thunder. There is
reasonable confidence that peak rain rates will reach or briefly
exceed 1"/hr as well as the shorter duration debris flow
thresholds, especially in the south and southwest facing foothills
and mountains. For these reasons a flash flood watch was issued
for the Alisal burn scar region Monday night into early Tuesday.

The main dynamics of the storm shift out of VTA county and into LA
county on Tuesday morning. At the same time the powerful jet will
move overhead and will provide enough dynamics to create a slight
chc of TSTMS which will last into the afternoon. The main trof
axis will approach the Central Coast in the afternoon and the rain
will turn to showers and diminish from the west to the east.

Storm totals now include the possibility of amounts up to 6
inches in upslope areas. So officially now 1-3" expected for
coast/valleys and 3-6" foothills/mountains.

Snow with this event still mostly a high elevation occurrence,
7000' and above. But some impressive accumulations expected with
1-3 feet of snow expected to fall.

The showers will quickly taper off tonight. The biggest concern
will be I-5 corridor where residual moisture and upslope flow
could bring an inch or two of snow to the Grapevine area.

Dry fast moving flow will set up on Wednesday. It will be sunny
and breezy. Despite the sunshine there will be little or no
warming due to the amount of cold air ushered in by Tuesday's
storm. Max temps will remain mired in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...13/331 AM.

All of the deterministic mdl forecast a weak system to move
through the area Thursday. The ensembles are not that cohesive
indicated that there is still some uncertainty in the strength of
the system. The best chc for rain will be over SLO and most of
SBA counties with diminishing chc's south of Pt Conception. It
will not be much of a rain maker with the current best guess
calling for about a quarter inch north of Pt Conception and a
tenth of less south. This will be cooler system with snow levels
near 5500 ft and light snow accumulations are possible. Thursday
will likely be the 4th day in row where coastal and vly temps stay
under 60.

Weak ridging will push into Srn CA from the SW Friday and persist
through the weekend. High pressure will build into the Great Basin
and will set up offshore flow (strongest Saturday) through the
period. Look for warming conditions each day but even after three
days of warming Sunday's max temps across the csts and vlys will
still be blo normal.

In the take it with a grain of salt department...both the GFS and
EC are forecasting another moderate storm on the 22nd.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1926Z.

At 1839Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer to 060.

Low confidence in all TAFs. Timing of cig, wind, and wx changes
could be off by 3 hours. Increasingly adverse conditions are
expected during the period. Ceilings will gradually lower tonight
into Tuesday morning with IFR ceilings and visibility quite
possible during the peak of the storm Tuesday morning. Winds will
be a big concern with this storm as the coastal sites could see
wind gusts to 40 knots. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
late tonight and Tuesday.

KLAX..Low confidence in TAF. Steady rain and MVFR cig/vis could
arrive as early as 14/00Z. A surface wind out of 160 degrees with
possible variation between 140 and 200 degrees, could cause both
easterly wind component and southerly cross-wind concerns for the
morning hours. The raw strength of the surface winds will be
capable of generating LLWS and UDDFS.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Steady rain and MVFR cig/vis could
arrive as early as 14/00Z. The raw strength of the surface winds
will be capable of generating LLWS and UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE...13/1049 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Gusty winds will start out southerly, reaching Gale Force sometime
this morning over northern portions of the waters. Winds shift to
a northwest direction Tuesday afternoon and night. Gale force
winds should linger over southern portions of the outer waters
into Tuesday evening. The current Gale Warning has been extended
into Tuesday night for the waters south of the Channel Islands.
SCA level seas may linger into Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. High confidence in SCA level wind and seas
remaining through Tuesday, with Gale force winds likely today and
tonight. By Wednesday, high confidence in winds returning to below
SCA levels, whereas SCA level waves may linger into Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds
increasing to SCA levels today and remaining through Tuesday.
Gale force winds are likely this evening through Tuesday evening.
By Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas returning to below
SCA levels.

A storm system approaching from the northwest will bring
dangerous sea conditions with widespread gale force winds, seas up
to 12 to 15 feet, and steep waves, especially along the Central
Coast. There will also be moderate to heavy rain and the
potential for thunderstorms. Refer to the Marine Weather Statement
for more information. Mariners should remain in safe harbor
during these dangerous conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      34>36. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to noon
      PST Tuesday for zones 37-38-51-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flash Flood Watch in effect from 6 PM PST this evening
      through late tonight for zones 39-52. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to noon PST
      Tuesday for zones 40-44>46-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 8
      PM PST Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Tuesday for
      zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7 PM PST this evening
      for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM PST
      Tuesday for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM
      PST Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 1 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Sweet/Lund
MARINE...Sweet/Phillips/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles