Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
343 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...Severe Storm Threat This Afternoon Through Late Tonight...

Radar this afternoon shows a remaining area of rain north of I-64
and east of I-65 associated with a weakening LLJ and surface trough.
This will continue to move off to the northeast as it moves
northeast into northern KY and southern OH. Clouds associated with
this activity can be seen along and east of I-65 on visibile
satellite imagery. West of I-65 across western KY/southwestern IN
clouds have been scattering out helping to destabalize the
atmosphere. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 1000K/kg over
western KY and steepening lapse rates. Kentucky Mesonet is also
showing temperatures around in the upper 70s/low 80s where skies
have clears. As the deep mid/upper level trough over the central
CONUS moves eastward, 500mb winds will increase to between 50-70kts
out of the southwest with effective shear around 40-50kts. Scattered
convection has already started to develop across the MS River valley
where clouds were more scattered and temperatures were in the low
80s. Between now and sunset, the main focus for severe weather will
be west of I-65, especially where we have the better instability.
Main threat will be gusty damaging winds but given the available
shear, strong rotating updrafts are possible with more cellular
convection. SPC has southwestern KY in a 5% TOR risk.

Later this evening, the severe threat turns more linear as the
strong cold front work into the region. Instability will diminish
with the loss of dayime heating setting a high shear low CAPE
envirnment. Convetion will form along and just ahead of the cold
front with the main threat being isolated damaging winds. The
greatest QLCS severe wind threat continues to be south across
western/central TN where instability will be the highest.

Severe threat will diminish after midnight across the eastern part
of the CWA but NW winds will increase behind the cold front. Windy
conditions and colder air arrive behind the cold front as rain
clears from west to east exiting out of the area by sunrise
tomorrow.

It will be a cooler and drier day to start the weekend. Winds will
be around 10-15 mph and gust approaching 20 mph highs will be in the
low/mid 60s with lows in upper 40s west to low 50s to the east.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

During the second half of the weekend and the first half of the new
work week an upper ridge will slowly make its way from the Plains to
the Appalachians, while surface high pressure spreads from the Red
River Valley to the Southeast. Pluviometers will get a break as
these features keep us dry with initially cool, then slowly
moderating, temperatures. Sunday morning in our position on the cool
side of the incoming surface high, 1000-925mb thicknesses suggest
sunrise temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, generally
in the lower and middle 40s with sheltered rural locations dipping
into the upper 30s. NBM progs show a 10-20% chance of a few eastern
valleys touching 36 degrees. Under clear skies and with just a few
light zephyrs, can't rule out some brief, patchy, thin frost in
those spots early Sunday morning.

After highs in the 60s on Sunday we'll be well back into the 70s
ahead of the next system. On Thursday low pressure crossing the
Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley,
accompanied by scattered showers. Looks like another high shear low
instability environment...may be enough buoyancy for a few
thunderstorms. The axis of the parent trough to Thursday's system
will then pass overhead on Friday and may provide a few light rain
showers.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

IMPACTS: Rain reduced CIG/VIS of MVFR/IFR with period of gusty
thunderstorms overnight. Gusty winds Saturday.

DISCUSSION: Areas of light to moderate rain have been around for the
first half of the day. TAF sites were showing a mix of IFR/MVFR due
to low CIG/VIS because of these showers. Showers will push off to
the east-northeast through the early afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery was showing breaks in the clods across southwest IN and
western KY. Cloud CIG will lift some this afternoon/evening
especially from SDF/HNB/BWG to VFR for a period.

Developing system over central Indiana will continue to work off to
the northeast bringing a cold front across the area tonight into
tomorrow morning. There is a chance of scattered to isolated
showers/storms through the late afternoon/evening before the cold
front spread areas of showers/storms later this evening. Winds will
go from the SW to more out of the northeast and increase. Low
clouds, gusty winds and period of heavy rain are likely as the front
moves through. Bulk of the rain and clouds will clear from west to
east and should out of the area by daybreak. Winds will be breezy
tomorrow with gusts up to near 20kts sustained just below 15kts out
of the northeast.

CONFIDENCE: High on conditions, medium on timing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...13
Aviation...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-162000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 /256 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening. The
main severe weather threat with the storms will be damaging wind
gusts in excess of 60 MPH. An isolated tornado will be possible. The
storms will end from west to east as a strong cold front pushes
through the region tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
228 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

INZ076-077-084-151900-
Crawford IN-Orange IN-Washington IN-
228 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Crawford, southeastern Orange and western Washington Counties through
300 PM EDT...

At 227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Paoli, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Salem around 245 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8606 3876 8603 3877 8602 3876 8601
      3877 8598 3876 8599 3875 8597 3857 8604
      3850 8616 3833 8639 3832 8661 3868 8625
      3878 8618 3876 8614 3877 8610 3878 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 242DEG 32KT 3857 8629

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
447 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

KYZ061-070-152215-
Logan KY-Butler KY-
447 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Logan
and southwestern Butler Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Dunmor, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Logan
and southwestern Butler Counties, including the following
locations... Justice, Cooperstown, Insco, Spa, Epleys, Diamond
Springs, Wolf Lick, Everett, Harper Crossroads and Lewisburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8698 3707 8694 3708 8694
      3709 8690 3711 8690 3711 8689 3712 8690
      3713 8690 3713 8692 3714 8692 3715 8688
      3691 8681 3688 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 257DEG 33KT 3698 8714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JML