Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Current water vapor imagery reveals upper trough axis over the
eastern half of the Commonwealth with visible imagery showing fair
weather cu field popping up over the region as earlier mid-level
clouds exit east of our CWA. KY Mesonet and regional observations
show temperatures in the low 80s in our eastern counties due to
cloud cover and in the mid 80s elsewhere.

Latest mesoanalysis continues to show instability across the region
with a bullseye of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE over our SE counties (Lake
Cumberland region) and PWATs up to 1.50 inches across southern KY.
As a result, will continue slight chance wording for showers and
thunderstorms across south central KY and some of our eastern
counties until 08/00Z. Any storms that possibly occur would be pulse
in nature and capable of brief heavy rain.

Clouds will clear overnight with Sunday morning min temps in the mid
to upper 60s with Louisville Metro in the low 70s. Sunday will be
mostly sunny as shortwave ridging aloft crosses the region. Expect
highs tomorrow in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
upper 60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Sunday Night - Monday...

A shortwave trough moving through the region Monday will bring
showers/storms with the best chances during the afternoon/evening
hrs.  Forecast confidence has increased so increased POPs to 50-70%
for Monday. Model soundings reveal DCAPES around 500-800 j/kg, steep
low level lapse rates and precipitable water values of 1.7-1.9
inches. While severe weather is not anticipated, these parameters
are supportive of gusty winds and heavy downpours in a few of the
stronger storms.

Precipitation on Monday will be welcome relief to the heat
experienced this weekend.  However, exact timing of precipitation
chances will impact high temperatures over the area for Monday.  The
current forecast with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s could be a
bit warm for some locations.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Rounds of scattered showers/storms look possible for Tue-Wed-Thu as
a few more subtle shortwaves in addition to diurnal heating provide
triggers for convection.  Adjusted POPs to better match 12Z model
guidance but confidence is medium to low on exact timing of
precipitation for mid week.

Temperatures will remain very summer-like in the upper 80s/lower 90s
for highs and upper 60s/lower 70s for lows.

Friday - Saturday...

A cold front and deep upper trough will move through the Midwest at
the end of the week bringing showers/storms through the region Fri
afternoon or Fri night.  A welcome cool down will arrive for
Saturday behind the cold front dropping high temperatures back into
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Mid cloud and some showers associated with a passing upper level
trough will continue to move into eastern KY as diurnal cu around 4-
5kft develop over the TAF sites this afternoon. There is low
probability of isolated showers occurring at any TAF site today, but
chances and confidence in location and timing are too low to include
in TAFs at this time. Expect VFR conditions to continue throughout
the period with light SSW winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...CG
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-081915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
306 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 /206 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CG/AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
436 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

KYZ045-046-054-072100-
Marion KY-Washington KY-Nelson KY-
436 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Nelson,
north central Marion and southwestern Washington Counties through 500
PM EDT...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Springfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 8541 3777 8542 3779 8515 3763 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 264DEG 11KT 3770 8533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BTN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
458 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

KYZ046-072130-
Washington KY-
458 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington
County through 530 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Willisburg, Mackville, Rineltown, Booker, Bearwallow,
Briartown, Mooresville, Polin and Pleasant Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8515 3768 8535 3784 8528 3781 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 285DEG 12KT 3775 8524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BTN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
508 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

KYZ039-046-047-072130-
Mercer KY-Washington KY-Anderson KY-
508 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Mercer,
southwestern Anderson and northeastern Washington Counties through
530 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Harrodsburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrapin, Cardwell, Tablow, Dugansville, Cornishville, Bohon,
Seaville and Mayo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 8507 3791 8505 3788 8487 3775 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 285DEG 11KT 3784 8499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BTN