Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

As a shortwave, along the upper trough axis, moves through the
region, isolated showers are beginning to pop up over the Bluegrass
region. Shower coverage is expected to increase over the next couple
of hours before dissipating early tonight as the trough gets pushed
to the east. Model soundings aren't impressive. MLCAPE is under
1,000 J/kg. Wind shear is non-existent. Precipitable water values
are low at around an inch, so not expecting much more than a summer
day shower with a few claps of thunder possible.

Tonight, skies clear out and winds go near calm as a surface high,
to our north, centers itself near us. This will help drop
temperatures, and areas on the eastern side of the CWA that see rain
today, will likely see fogging in the morning.

Tomorrow, winds are expected to remain light. Skies will clear in
the morning before afternoon cumulus start popping-up over the area,
but with upper ridging and surface high pressure over the region, we
are expected to remain dry.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

At the start of the extended period expect to find shortwave ridging
aloft which will then quickly be displaced east over the Atlantic by
Saturday as an upper-level trough initially located over the MS
Valley progresses eastward into the OH Valley. At the surface, high
pressure will be located over the Mid-Atlantic, setting up deep
southwesterly flow over the area on the backside of the high. As the
shortwave approaches and moves overhead, will carry slight chance
PoPs Friday afternoon/Saturday for portions of southeast and east-
central KY where the better moisture will be located. Mid-level
ridging will then build in over the Southeast CONUS Sunday, helping
to keep additional shortwaves to our north and west. Lacking any
stronger sources of forcing, will continue to carry just slight
chances for diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon
through the remainder of the period as we remain in a warm and moist
environment.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s to start on Friday then increasing into the
lower 90s for most by Sunday and potentially into the mid 90s next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.

Cu will blanket the region through most of the afternoon and evening
hours.

Later today, mainly between 20z and 0z, LEX could see a passing
shower or two. Chances are so isolated, left it out of the TAF.

Tonight, winds go calm giving way to possible fog at LEX,
especially if they see any rainfall.

Tomorrow, expect near calm winds and mostly sunny skies as the upper
trough moves off to the east and a ridge takes its spot.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...JML
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 /215 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found at weather.gov/louisville.

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
625 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

KYZ039-040-042300-
Woodford KY-Anderson KY-
625 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Woodford and southeastern Anderson Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
along the county line just east of Lawrenceburg, moving west at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will affect west central Woodford and southeastern
Anderson Counties, including Lawrenceburg, Mcbrayer, Milner, Tyrone
and Fox Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 8480 3795 8491 3795 8494 3794 8495
      3794 8497 3807 8499 3805 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 084DEG 6KT 3802 8489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RAS