Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
741 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...CORRECTED...

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 600 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...Strong to Severe Storms Expected This Evening...

Ongoing convection is mainly focused across southern Indiana
counties at this time, ahead of the sfc cold front that is located
across southern Illinois and central Indiana. Our environment ahead
of the boundary is characterized by SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, steep
low level lapse rates of 7-7.5+ C/km, and Effective Bulk Shear of 25-
30 kts. PWATs of 1.8 inches are nosing into the region along the
Ohio River under an axis of 925-850mb moisture transport and along
the greatest sfc moisture convergence. SPC Mesoanalysis paints DCAPE
values of 800+ J/kg along and south of the convective line.
Convection has become clustered as scattered storms have merged, and
have seen some brief weak rotations within cells. However, with 0-
1km SRH below 50 m2/s2, the environment is not very supportive for
tornadoes. Sufficient Effective Bulk Shear could allow for multicell
convection to become a line of strong to severe storms as they track
south and east this evening. Overall, the main threats within any
stronger storms will continue to be locally damaging winds, frequent
cloud to ground lightning, and torrential rainfall which may lead to
localized flooding hazards.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Shaping up to be quite a warm and muggy day across the Commonwealth
with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s. Earlier morning stratus have finally given way
to mostly sunny skies with a scattered cu deck over the area. It has
been a relatively dry day for most locations as well, with just some
widely scattered showers. However, expect increasing chances for
showers and storms as we move through the afternoon and evening
hours as a cold front approaches the area.

Current surface analysis places an area of low pressure over Lake
Erie with the front extending southwest across northern OH, central
IN and into northwest AR. Ahead of and along the front, radar
imagery displays a scattered/broken line of showers and storms
sinking southward towards the area, some of which have been severe
at times. Mesoanalysis indicates moderate instability over the area
with SBCAPE of around 2000-3000+ J/kg and plentiful moisture with
PWATs between 1.7-2.0 inches. Additionally, seeing relatively steep
low-level lapse rates (7.5 - 8 C/km) along with DCAPE values
generally between 700-1000 J/kg. Effective Shear will remain a bit
modest with values of 20-25 kts; however, this should still be
sufficient for a few organized multicell clusters and/or bowing line
segments to form. Overall, the main threats within any stronger
storms will be locally damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and torrential rainfall which may lead to localized
flooding issues. Regarding timing, expect stronger storms to begin
pushing into southern IN/northern KY by 08/20Z-22Z then continuing
to move southward reaching central and southern KY by 09/00Z-02Z.
However, widely scattered showers and storms will still be possible
out ahead of the main line.

Precip will then come to an end from NW to SE later tonight in the
wake of the cold front passage, with the frontal boundary then
expected to stall out near the KY/TN border. Despite the passage of
the weak front, overnight lows will remain in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Friday will then be mostly dry as surface high pressure briefly
builds in over the area, with scattered afternoon and evening
convection possible across southern KY near the frontal boundary.
Highs will feature temps in the lower to mid 80s across the southern
IN and northern KY with mid to upper 80s across southern KY.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Unsettled pattern shaping up as a disturbance in the NW flow aloft
drops out of the Canadian Prairies Fri night and closes off by late
Sat over the Lower Missouri Valley. Later in the weekend the Bermuda
ridge builds into the southeast CONUS to stop the closed low from
going anywhere, not to mention increasing the southerly flow and
associated moisture feed into the Ohio Valley. The result will be
multiple waves of showers and storms, especially Saturday through
Monday.

Most of these waves will be difficult to time, but there is a decent
signal for showers and storms riding ESE along the warm front late
Fri night into Sat morning. Additional rounds of precip Sat through
Monday night could lead to localized flooding if the same locations
repeatedly see heavy rainfall. Expect widespread rainfall amounts
either side of 2 inches, with 3-4 inch totals possible where the
front sets up, most likely north of our area of responsibility in
Indiana. Temps will be modulated by clouds and precip, with
overnight mins near normal and afternoon highs just a bit below
normal for this time of year.

By Tuesday the upper low finally begins to lift out, and rising
heights aloft will support the return of more typical daytime temps,
but we will hang on to the diurnal 20-30% POP for pop-up storms.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

IMPACTS: Scattered showers and storms are pushing through this
evening, with brief reductions in visibility and gusty winds
possible in stronger storms. MVFR CIGs will once again be possible
overnight into tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION: A cold front is pushing into the area this evening.
Along this front there are some storms, some severe in nature,
causing gusty winds and lower visibilities. These storms have exited
HNB and are currently over SDF. Within the next hour or two, these
storms will begin to affect BWG and LEX.

Tonight around 8Z we will again see lower ceilings (1000-3000ft)
across the region. These ceilings will begin to lift out when the
sun comes up.

Tomorrow, looks to be mild with VFR conditions prevailing. There is
a PROB30 out over BWG with some showers that could be entering the
area from the south.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...CJP
Short Term...JML
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...SRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 /223 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible into tonight. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing locally damaging winds,
torrential rainfall and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Several rounds of showers and storms are possible Friday night
through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts around 2 inches are likely with 3
to 4 inches possible which could result in localized flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are invited to submit reports to the National Weather
Service.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found at weather.gov/louisville.

JML/RAS

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