Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...Ongoing Heavy Rain with Embedded Strong to Severe Storms...
...Much Nicer Tuesday Coming Up...

Surface cold front is near a SDF/BWG line this hour and continues
pushing steadily eastward. It should be to the I-75 corridor by
sundown. Storms forming around this front will continue to work in a
juicy airmass, but with little in the way of shear to work with.
They mainly look to be dominated by localized heavier cores coming
down and causing brief microbursts. Also continue to watch for some
training, but at this point the line of heavier rains appears to be
continuing to move just fast enough to prevent rainfall from getting
too high of a total in any one location. Will be trimming the watch
from north to south as parts of the area stabilize from earlier
convection.

After we deal with some lingering showers this evening and perhaps
into the overnight, we should see skies start to scatter out,
especially during the day Tuesday. Much drier air works into the
region, falling into the 40s over southern IN and at least north
central KY. Highs likely will be in the low to mid 70s for most.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Surface high pressure will be centered right over the Ohio Valley at
the start of the Long Term Tuesday evening. This high will gradually
strengthen and expand as it slowly drifts eastward during mid-week.
This will result in dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures.
Readings will be in the 50s when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning...maybe even briefly dipping into the upper 40s in sheltered
eastern valleys. After highs around 80 Wednesday we'll be back into
the middle and upper 80s Thursday.

The picture will change Friday-Monday as a Canadian upper trough
digs into the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. The aforementioned
high will be off the East Coast and pumping Gulf of Mexico northward
throughout the eastern United States. Models agree on an unusually
moist atmosphere this weekend suggesting that thunderstorms with
locally very heavy downpours will be possible. High RH and
widespread clouds will hold daytime temperatures to the 80s, but
those conditions plus S/SW surface flow will result in warm, muggy
nights with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Cold front near the KSDF terminal now will continue its
southeastward progress this afternoon. Seeing storm coverage
increase ahead of the front. Expect strong to severe wind gusts with
these storms as they pop up over the next few hours. Winds will
become more northwesterly behind the front. Conditions should
improve rapidly this evening, though some lower ceilings are
forecast just east of a BWG/LEX line. Did not go with poor
conditions at either site for the overnight, but will have to watch
to see if those conditions develop farther west than expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...13
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ027-046>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-221930-
Grayson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Leitchfield, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 /219 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few severe storms are
possible, and could produce locally damaging winds and torrential
rainfall. Depending on where the heavy rain occurs, localized
flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Multiple waves of thunderstorms will be possible Friday through
Sunday. Locations that receive repeated heavy rainfall could see
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any stronger wind gusts as well as heavy rain
and flooding reports.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-028>043-045-221930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-
Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Elizabethtown,
Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle,
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, and Bardstown
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 /219 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible early this evening. The stronger
storms will produce briefly heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Multiple waves of thunderstorms will be possible Friday through
Sunday. Locations that receive repeated heavy rainfall could see
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS/13

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