Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Outflow boundaries from yesterdays convection have helped to spark
off several clusters of thunderstorms along an instability gradient
early this morning across southwestern IN and western KY. Storms
have been generally tracking along this gradient and are in an
atmosphere that supports gusty wind and small hail potential. This
activity will likely continue through the early morning hours as it
steadily drops to the south. The eastward extent of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should likely stay west of the I-65 corridor
through sunrise.

A weak cold front will approach from the north today and serve as a
focus/lifting mechanism for additional convection late this morning
into the afternoon. Models prog the front to be around or just south
of the Ohio River by the time convective temperatures are reached.
Overall convective coverage looks to be scattered, with it most
widespread across the Kentucky Bluegrass. Deep layer shear will be
pretty weak to marginal (<30kts), but moderate instability and DCAPE
will allow for the stronger thunderstorms to produce microbursts
capable of damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. The
main timing of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be
from 13.17z to 14.00z. Most activity by 00z will be waning down with
the loss of daytime heating as well as pushing south of our CWA
border.

Skies will gradually clear out this evening from northwest to
southeast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will advect in
behind the front overnight, which will allow temperatures to drop
into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Think there'll be just
enough of a light wind at the surface that fog won't be too much of
an issue overnight.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Upper level ridging is forecast to amplify over the Four Corners
region early next week, while a couple shortwave troughs dive SSE
over the Ohio Valley Monday night and Tuesday night. These
disturbances help carve out a longwave trough over the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley through midweek, which then shifts to the East Coast
late week. Deep northerly flow will result in an influx of cooler,
less humid air through midweek. The vast majority of this time
period still looks dry.

Will go with a dry 10 PoP over the Bluegrass Monday
afternoon/evening as a weak cold front drops south through the area.
This occurs as the first upper level shortwave trough dives
southeast over Ohio. Not much moisture to work with, but some decent
low-level forcing with a 30 kt northerly LLJ pushing south across
central IN Mon afternoon. Plenty of sunshine Monday with afternoon
highs 85-90 F, and dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Behind this front, temperatures drop into the 70s and low 80s for
highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Dewpoints are likely to be in the 55-60
F range, resulting in some very pleasant weather. Morning lows will
drop into the 50s to low 60s. Thursday morning looks to be the
coolest with lows around 50-55 F.

Upper level ridging noses in from the west Thursday and Friday,
which will likely push highs back toward the mid/upper 80s for
Friday. The pattern aloft flattens out through the weekend, and a
weak cold front approaching the area Friday appears likely to stall
and result in a period of unsettled weather.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Low confidence forecast for the early morning hours today.
Thunderstorms have started to develop along old outflow boundaries
from yesterday's storms, mainly across western KY and southern IN.
Thunderstorms may continue to develop along this boundary as it
slips southward, and could brush by HNB within the next hour or two.
Depending on how far eastward it develops, SDF could also see
showers or storms nearby. The high clouds associated with storms
will also limit radiational cooling and fog potential, so have not
taken visibilities down near as much as previous forecast.

A weak cold front is expected to pass through the region tomorrow,
and showers/storms are expected to develop along and ahead of it.
Appears that locations along and south of the Ohio River will have
some potential to see storms during the afternoon. Expect briefly
reduced visibilities and gusty, erratic winds near or within
thunderstorms. Once the front passes through, dry weather and VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1011 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-140215-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1011 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 /911 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible until about 2 AM. These storms
will be capable of localized gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front
Sunday. Some of these storms could produce very gusty winds. In
areas where repeated thunderstorms occur, there could also be
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
102 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ083-130530-
Dubois-
102 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DUBOIS COUNTY...

At 102 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Shoals, moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dubois, Hillham, Thales, Cuzco, Dubois Crossroads, Norton,
Kellerville, Crystal and Haysville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3849 8695 3850 8694 3850 8688 3851 8685
      3853 8683 3852 8668 3844 8668 3844 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 357DEG 15KT 3856 8682

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
117 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ083-130545-
Dubois-
117 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN DUBOIS COUNTY...

At 117 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dale, moving
south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holland.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3831 8707 3831 8700 3820 8696 3821 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 357DEG 13KT 3824 8703

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
144 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ083-130615-
Dubois-
144 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DUBOIS COUNTY...

At 143 AM EDT, scattered strong thunderstorms were located across
Dubois County, moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Holland, Birdseye, Dubois, Hillham,
Celestine, Bretzville and Mentor.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3831 8707 3838 8692 3851 8686 3853 8683
      3853 8668 3825 8668 3825 8679 3820 8680
      3820 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 016DEG 13KT 3829 8691

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ089-130645-
Perry-
118 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PERRY
COUNTY...

At 117 AM CDT, scattered strong thunderstorms were located across
northwestern Perry County, moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ranger, Adyeville, Sassafras, Bristow, Celina, Apalona, Siberia,
Uniontown and Kitterman Corners.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3812 8680 3815 8681 3816 8680 3818 8680
      3818 8679 3825 8679 3825 8668 3826 8668
      3824 8658 3800 8670 3801 8678 3803 8678
      3803 8677 3804 8679 3806 8677 3808 8678
      3810 8677 3812 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 013DEG 20KT 3819 8672

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
141 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ089-130715-
Perry-
141 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL PERRY
COUNTY...

At 139 AM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located 7
miles north of Tell City, moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tell City, Troy, Ranger, Lilly Dale, Terry and Gatchel.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3802 8680 3800 8678 3800 8677 3803 8678
      3803 8677 3804 8679 3806 8677 3808 8678
      3810 8677 3812 8679 3811 8680 3814 8680
      3813 8660 3795 8662 3795 8678 3799 8679
      3800 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 013DEG 12KT 3806 8676

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
205 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ089-KYZ023-130730-
Perry-Hancock-
205 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 204 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tell City,
moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tell City, Hawesville, Cannelton, Troy, Petri, Adair and Fenn Haven.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3799 8684 3800 8682 3800 8681 3802 8680
      3800 8679 3800 8677 3801 8677 3800 8665
      3786 8668 3784 8681 3787 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0704Z 013DEG 12KT 3797 8676

DM