Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Pattern continues to show an upper level ridge expanding northward
from the Four Corners up into Saskatchewan Canada over the short-
term. We will be situated right on the edge of the ridge tonight
into tomorrow allowing for a deep northerly drier flow across the
region. In this flow, a sfc boundary will drop in across the region
tomorrow and could produce scattered showers and storms.

Temperatures this afternoon have worked upwards into the upper 80s
and low 90s across most of our CWA with the exception of the area
along and east of I-75 where observations were in the mid 80s.
Mostly due to more cloud cover associated with a cluster of
convection over the far eastern part of our CWA in Nicolas, Bourbon,
Harrison and Clark counties. This activity was dropping south slowly
with frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall and possible
gusty winds. Other than this activity the radar has been fairly
quiet this afternoon. Visible satellite has shown the development of
some scattered CU this afternoon. There is plenty of instability
across our region as CAPE values range from 2500-3000 J/Kg but lack
any real trigger to ignite convection. Any convection that forms
will be isolated in nature but associated outflow from storms could
spark new development this afternoon/evening. Any storms that form
have a threat of gusty damaging winds as DCAPE is between 1000-1500
J/Kg with the highest axis along and south of I-65.  Any remaining
activity this evening will begin to diminish after sunset. It will
remain warm and humid as we go overnight with partly to mostly clear
skies. Where we get good clearing there could once again be some
patchy fog in the morning tomorrow. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s in more urban areas.

Weak sfc boundary currently to our north and west will be located
just north of the Ohio River tomorrow morning. This boundary will
slowly push southeastward through the day sparking some scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms. Given the timing of the frontal
passage, our highest chance of showers and storms can be expected
along and south of the Parkways during the afternoon. Could see some
scattered showers/storms in the morning across southern IN/northern
KY as the boundary drops south. Plenty of instability to work with
again tomorrow with CAPE values 2000-2500 J/Kg and DCAPE near or
slightly above 1000 J/Kg could produce strong gusty winds with any
storms that form. Highs tomorrow will approach the upper 80s to near
90 but look to be cooler than today thanks to boundary and more
clouds.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Slight pattern shift will make a noticeable difference for the
upcoming week as the both the western ridge and eastern trof
amplify, setting up N/NW upper flow in between. In terms of sensible
weather, most of the week will be dry, with lower humidity and
eventually more comfortable temperatures.

Current forecast for Sunday night is dry as there should be enough
of a push behind the cold front that any storms should exit before
sundown. Don't expect much of an impression on temps Monday as the
ridge still holds enough influence to push temps near 90, but the
good news is dewpoints will be closer to 60 than 70. From there, a
series of shortwave disturbances will really carve out the east
coast trof and open the door for a cooler air mass Tuesday through
Thursday. Temps will run below climo during the middle of the week,
as highs in some parts of the Bluegrass region might not crack 80,
and dewpoints will be in the 50s. Not completely confident in a dry
forecast with how many shortwaves are coming through, but do not
believe there is enough deep moisture to support POPs.

Pattern starts to deamplify late in the week, and the Gulf opens up
just enough ahead of a weak cold front to increase rain chances
Friday night into Saturday. Will keep POPs in the chance category
for now due to limited confidence regarding timing. Temps and
dewpoints recover Friday and Saturday, to fairly typical values for
mid-June.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Impacts: VFR conditions will be the prevailing condition through the
forecast period. There is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening but the threat remains low that it remains
out of the TAF. Patchy MVRF/IFR fog could once again impact a few
sites early Sunday morning with a chance of showers towards Sunday
afternoon.

Discussion: Visible satellite imagery is showing the development SCT
Cu over the area around between 2500-5000 Ft but skies were mostly
clear. There is plenty of instability this afternoon but lacking a
trigger any activity remains to be isolated. Winds have been mostly
light with a northerly component to around 5-6 kts this afternoon.
Skies will clear again overnight and once again we could see areas
of patchy fog/low stratus across portions of the Bluegrass and
around the Lake Cumberland region. A weak boundary will drop in
across southern IN/Kentucky tomorrow and we could see the
development of scattered showers/storms in the afternoon.

Confidence: Medium on the occurrence of storms and patchy fog and
high on the remainder of the conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-131915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 /209 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. These
storms will be capable of localized gusty winds, brief heavy
downpours, and cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front
Sunday. Some of these storms could produce very gusty winds. In
areas where repeated thunderstorms occur, there could also be
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN/RAS

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