Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
349 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Upper low over the Plains with an occluded 998mb sfc over SW
Missouri this afternoon. Triple point is near the Bootheel, with the
most solid precip shield north of the warm front in mainly central
Kentucky. We have had a few strong to marginally severe storms
across south-central Kentucky in a slightly better mixed
environment, but that has been worked over and the unstable air mass
is now confined to Tennessee.

Main concern through this evening will be just how much additional
rain falls, especially where the heaviest rain already fell across
south central Kentucky. We could be looking at 1-2 inches of
additional rainfall, and if it remains focused near the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways as currently progged, impacts should
be limited to nuisance flooding. However, if heavy rain falls
farther south where we are now fairly saturated, there could be
more impactful flooding.

Spotty convection is developing over western Kentucky and western
Tennessee, and that pushes through late this evening. Latest HRRR
actually takes that batch of rain across south-central Kentucky,
which could raise flood concerns.

Precip ends after midnight as the dry slot cuts in, but temps will
remain nearly steady overnight. Sharp temp gradient expected to
persist Tuesday as southern Kentucky clears out under the stronger
westerlies aloft, while north central KY and southern IN remain
fairly socked in.  Better temp recovery in the south, where we could
touch 60 again, while southern Indiana will be stuck in the mid 40s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and deep troughing
across south central CONUS will place the OH Valley under deep SW
flow at the beginning of the long term. A 5H closed low over central
US will continue tracking eastward, filling as it tracks over the
southern OH Valley and northern TN Valley. Best chances of precip
will begin Wednesday afternoon and continue through early Thursday
morning. Sounding profiles would suggest mostly rain south of the
Parkways and transitioning to mostly snow towards the I-64 corridor,
but a rain/snow mix is likely between the two. EPS/GEFS members
continue to show agreement on minor accumulations with up to 1 inch
possible along our northernmost counties in Indiana and most
locations receiving a half inch or less. Temperatures will fall into
the low to mid 20s in the cold air behind the front, so impacts will
likely include some slick spots on any untreated roads for the
Thursday morning commute.

Large amplitude ridging and Canadian high pressure moves over the
region Thursday through the start of the weekend bringing cold but
dry weather. Thursday will be the coldest with highs only reaching
into the low 30s across southern Indiana and mid 30s across central
KY. Friday morning will likely be the coldest morning of the week
with lows in the upper teens to low 20s, but afternoon temps will
recover nicely with the aid of WAA along southerly winds with highs
in the 40s.

Our next chance of rain will come Saturday as system approaches from
the Central Plains. This looks to be an all-rain event lasting
through Sunday. Finer details will come later as long range models
reconcile differences.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Rain shield will continue to affect Kentucky and southern Indiana
for most of the afternoon, with cig/vis remaining IFR with
occasional drops into LIFR. Steady east winds could come around to S-
SE at BWG as the warm front tries to lift north, but that's as far
as it will get.  Embedded thunder is in play mainly at BWG, but
can't be ruled out at SDF or LEX.

By this evening the precip turns more convective and could be a bit
spotty. Will transition to handling precip with TEMPO groups, but
IFR/LIFR ceilings remain.  Rain shuts off and winds come around to
SW around midnight as the sfc low passes.  Ceilings will finally
start to break out mid/late morning Tue as we lose some of the
cyclonic curvature in the low-level flow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...CG
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
404 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-262115-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
404 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 /304 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread soaking rainfall will continue until early evening, with
localized heavy rainfall possible later in the evening. Minor
flooding of low-lying areas will be possible where heavy rain falls
repeatedly. The best chance of flooding or ponding will be south of
the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Minor snow accumulations are possible Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, mainly across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed flooding through
tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
437 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW FLIPPIN            36.75N 85.91W
01/25/2021                   MONROE             KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NEAR BROWNS FORD BOAT RAMP.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
454 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW BURKESVILLE        36.73N 85.46W
01/25/2021                   CUMBERLAND         KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NEAR LESLIE ROAD

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
513 PM EST MON JAN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GLASGOW             37.00N 85.91W
01/25/2021                   BARREN             KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE OFF OF EAST MAIN STREET

&&

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
419 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ073>075-252245-
Monroe-Allen-Barren-
419 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN AND SOUTHEASTERN BARREN COUNTIES...

At 419 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Scottsville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fountain Run, Eighty Eight, Oak Forest, Gum Tree, Maynard, Nobob,
Lamb, Flippin, Emberton and Holland.

LAT...LON 3663 8610 3669 8622 3694 8579 3690 8574
      3684 8574 3684 8565 3677 8557 3663 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 240DEG 49KT 3670 8605

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
436 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ076-077-081-252300-
Metcalfe-Cumberland-Adair-
436 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN
METCALFE AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 436 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Tompkinsville, moving northeast at 70 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Cundiff, Gadberry, Curtis, Willow Shade, Bliss, Fairplay,
Crocus, Flatwood and Toria.

LAT...LON 3683 8560 3684 8574 3689 8574 3714 8532
      3699 8520 3692 8523 3690 8527 3688 8525
      3678 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 241DEG 59KT 3684 8569

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
447 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ073>075-252315-
Monroe-Allen-Barren-
447 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN AND SOUTHEASTERN BARREN COUNTIES...

At 447 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Scottsville,
moving east at 70 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsville, Tompkinsville, Fountain Run, Oak Forest, Gum Tree,
Maynard, Nobob, Lamb, Flippin and Emberton.

LAT...LON 3666 8627 3674 8630 3690 8574 3684 8574
      3683 8565 3671 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 255DEG 62KT 3672 8616

DM