Freeze Watch 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
248 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...Warm and Breezy This Afternoon...
...Rainy Tonight and Cooler Wednesday...

Strong SSW flow in place this afternoon ahead of a low pressure
system just off to the west. The column remains dry for now, so
plenty of sunshine teaming up with the southerly wind component to
push temps into the 70s. A plume of deep moisture is making its way
up the Mississippi River Valley, currently nosing into the Memphis
metro. This warm conveyor belt/LLJ axis currently has 850 mb winds
around 35-40 kts.

Large upper level trough will continue eastward across the Upper
Midwest tonight into tomorrow. The area of deep moisture and nose of
the strongest moisture transport off to the southwest will reach the
western CWA by 00z this evening. Narrow LLJ core does increase to
around 50 kts over central KY between 04-06z, coinciding with the
strongest integrated water vapor transport. A plume of 1.2 to 1.5 PW
values will spread eastward into the area just ahead of the sfc cold
front, but the front is generally progressive in nature. Flash
flooding looks unlikely, but minor nuisance flooding and typical
ponding/pooling of water in low spots can be expected.

A band of showers and isolated storms will then work east across the
area between 00-12z Wed, with thunder chances mainly in central KY
with the best chance for a storm in southern KY. Gusty showers look
possible, but the severe weather threat is limited due to weak (and
mainly elevated) instability.

The front pushes through between 06-12z, and winds abruptly veer NW
behind the front and cooler air floods the region. Temps will be
dropping through the 40s and 50s Wed morning, and breezy/wet
conditions will make for an unpleasant day. Scattered post-frontal
light rain showers will remain possible into the afternoon,
especially east of I-65. Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday
will range from 0.30-1.25 inches, with the higher 1+ inch totals
likely in south-central KY.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...Hard Freeze Expected Thursday and Friday Morning...

Few showers may linger behind the departing system across the
Bluegrass and our eastern CWA Wednesday evening as an upper level
trough moves across the Ohio Valley. As the flow turns more
northwest aloft, drier and and colder air will advect in across the
region as a strong 1035mb surface high builds in and expands across
the Central Plains and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. This will
bring unseasonably cold temperatures to the region for the end of
the week. With this cold regime in place, we will be going with a
freeze warning for Thursday morning and a freeze watch for Friday
morning. Both mornings feature many hours below freezing (25 to 30F
Thursday morning and 20-25F Friday) with Friday featuring a hard
freeze with several hours at or below 25F. Friday morning lows could
possibly be record-breaking and the coldest morning as the surface
high will be sitting directly over us. As for afternoon highs,
temperatures will range 15 to 20 degrees below normal on Thursday
(40-45F) and 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Friday (46-51F).

The rest of the period features lots of dry conditions, sunshine and
warming temperatures. With surface high pressure anchored off the
southeastern US and ridging aloft.  Highs will be back in the 70s
Sunday through the start of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

IMPACTS: Gusty SSW sfc winds continue through sunset with gusts 23-
28 kt. VFR likely through 02z, deteriorating conditions tonight with
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION: It will remain quite breezy through much of this TAF
period, with gusty SSW this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. The front will bring widespread showers and MVFR ceilings
tonight into early Wednesday. Occasionally lower visibilities
possible in showers as well. BWG has the best chance at seeing a
thunderstorm with a bit more instability likely across southern KY.
Fairly sharp wind shift expected between 06-12z Wed with winds
veering northwesterly behind the front.

CONFIDENCE: High confidence through 02Z. High confidence in showers
tonight, medium confidence in ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...BTN
Aviation...EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-302300-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
1035 AM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021 /935 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/

...Elevated Fire Danger This Afternoon...

Mostly sunny and breezy conditions will continue this afternoon
with relative humidity values dropping to 25-35% as temperatures
climb into the 70s. 10-hour fuel moisture has dropped to 7-8%, so
dry, warm, and breezy conditions will result in an elevated fire
danger.

At this time, it appears that minimum relative humidity values should
fall just short of Red Flag Warning criteria. Local conditions
should be monitored closely though.

EBW